PRESIDENT'S A-3 LUNCH SCENESETTER - SANADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000507

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR A/S FRIED, DAS DICARLO
NSC FOR BRAUN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS MARR NATO HR
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S A-3 LUNCH SCENESETTER - SANADER
ANXIOUS TO STEP THROUGH NATO'S OPEN DOOR


Classified By: Ambassador Robert A. Bradtke for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) Still enjoying the afterglow of his highly successful
White House visit last October, Prime Minister Ivo Sanader is
very much looking forward to seeing President Bush again at
the A-3 leaders lunch in Tirana June 10. The PM views his
relationship with the President as key to Croatia's
international success, and he will seize this opportunity to
demonstrate that Croatia is ready to step through NATO's open
door. Sanader hopes the President will repeat his support
for inviting Croatia into the Alliance in 2008. He will also
undoubtedly repeat his invitation for the President to visit
Croatia, perhaps suggesting a Zagreb stop following NATO's
Bucharest Summit.

NATO-READY AND WILLING: CONTRIBUTING LIKE A MEMBER
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2. (C) The GoC is anxious to show its NATO readiness both
politically and militarily. President Bush's October
statement supporting an invitation for Croatia in 2008 locked
in the political consensus here in favor of NATO and helped
boost support both among Allies and the Croatian public.
Facing tightly contested parliamentary elections in November,
the PM will want to hear the President reaffirm this
commitment. With every political party in favor of
accession, there is no question about any future government's
stance on NATO, but Sanader has presented himself as the
right leader to guide Croatia into the Alliance. For his
part, the PM has delivered on his promise to the President to
step up GoC efforts to build public support for membership.
Government-sponsored polls this month, bolstered by
Nikolic-inspired fears of a return of Serbian radicalism,
show 52 percent of Croatians in favor of accession, up
sharply from 43 percent in March.


3. (C) It would also be helpful for the President to
acknowledge the GoC's significant contributions to NATO
operations. The 171 Croatian troops currently deployed with
NATO's ISAF in Afghanistan operate without caveats and
include trainers embedded with the Afghan National Army, an
operational role no other non-member has taken on. The GoC
continues to finance this deployment itself and plans to
expand its contribution to 200 troops in June and to 300 in

2008. The Croatian military is clearly serious about drawing
from their Afghanistan experience to increase their
interoperability and develop lessons-learned for future
NATO-led stability operations. In addition, Croatia just
hosted the largest NATO civilian disaster response exercise
ever held in a non-member state. The GoC is also preparing
to host a large-scale NATO maritime exercise in October.


4. (C) While not providing troops in Iraq, the GoC has
assisted in achieving USG goals there by offering weapons and
training courses to the NATO Training Mission in Iraq,
providing instructors to the International Police Training
Center in Jordan, and engaging in civilian assistance such as
outreach to Iraqi parliamentarians and hospitalization of
Iraqi children. Croatia established formal diplomatic
relations with Iraq in August 2006 and remains interested in
opening a permanent mission in Baghdad.

REGIONAL LEADERSHIP: WHAT CROATIA BRINGS TO THE TABLE
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5. (C) Croatia's contributions to NATO operations continue to
grow, but its greatest value to Allies may be as a stable
leader in an uncertain region. In addition to active
participation in A-3 structures, the GoC maintains vigorous
and positive bilateral relations with every country in the
region. Croatia just concluded its successful chairmanship
of the South East European Cooperation Process with the
formation of a permanent Regional Cooperation Council (RCC),
the successor to the Stability Pact initiative. MFA State
Secretary and Sanader confidante Hidajet Biscevic was

SIPDIS
selected as the first secretary general of the RCC, adding to
Croatia's already valuable influence in maintaining regional
stability.


6. (C) Sanader has constructively engaged his colleagues in
the region on a number of key issues, including
constitutional reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the final
status of Kosovo. The PM will be ready to talk about
Croatia's support for the Ahtisaari plan and what we expect
to happen near term in Kosovo.

BILATERAL ODDS AND ENDS
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7. (C) If the opportunity arises, the PM may attempt to raise
one or two bilateral issues. He may seek concrete USG
support for closing the OSCE mission in Zagreb, which other
Allies have argued needs to remain through 2008 to finish
work on refugee returns and consolidation of progress in the
rule of law. We have expressed the USG's appreciation for
Sanader's continued commitment to reforms, particularly on
refugees, and our willingness to work closely with him on a
strategy to complete this important work and close the
mission.


8. (C) Sanader may also seek the President's support for
Croatia's bid for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security
Council, as he continues to seek broader Croatian influence
in multilateral affairs.
BRADTKE