PRESIDENT'S A-3 LUNCH SCENESETTER - SANADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000507 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S FRIED, DAS DICARLO NSC FOR BRAUN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS MARR NATO HR SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S A-3 LUNCH SCENESETTER - SANADER ANXIOUS TO STEP THROUGH NATO'S OPEN DOOR Classified By: Ambassador Robert A. Bradtke for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). ¶1. (C) Still enjoying the afterglow of his highly successful White House visit last October, Prime Minister Ivo Sanader is very much looking forward to seeing President Bush again at the A-3 leaders lunch in Tirana June 10. The PM views his relationship with the President as key to Croatia's international success, and he will seize this opportunity to demonstrate that Croatia is ready to step through NATO's open door. Sanader hopes the President will repeat his support for inviting Croatia into the Alliance in 2008. He will also undoubtedly repeat his invitation for the President to visit Croatia, perhaps suggesting a Zagreb stop following NATO's Bucharest Summit. NATO-READY AND WILLING: CONTRIBUTING LIKE A MEMBER -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The GoC is anxious to show its NATO readiness both politically and militarily. President Bush's October statement supporting an invitation for Croatia in 2008 locked in the political consensus here in favor of NATO and helped boost support both among Allies and the Croatian public. Facing tightly contested parliamentary elections in November, the PM will want to hear the President reaffirm this commitment. With every political party in favor of accession, there is no question about any future government's stance on NATO, but Sanader has presented himself as the right leader to guide Croatia into the Alliance. For his part, the PM has delivered on his promise to the President to step up GoC efforts to build public support for membership. Government-sponsored polls this month, bolstered by Nikolic-inspired fears of a return of Serbian radicalism, show 52 percent of Croatians in favor of accession, up sharply from 43 percent in March. ¶3. (C) It would also be helpful for the President to acknowledge the GoC's significant contributions to NATO operations. The 171 Croatian troops currently deployed with NATO's ISAF in Afghanistan operate without caveats and include trainers embedded with the Afghan National Army, an operational role no other non-member has taken on. The GoC continues to finance this deployment itself and plans to expand its contribution to 200 troops in June and to 300 in ¶2008. The Croatian military is clearly serious about drawing from their Afghanistan experience to increase their interoperability and develop lessons-learned for future NATO-led stability operations. In addition, Croatia just hosted the largest NATO civilian disaster response exercise ever held in a non-member state. The GoC is also preparing to host a large-scale NATO maritime exercise in October. ¶4. (C) While not providing troops in Iraq, the GoC has assisted in achieving USG goals there by offering weapons and training courses to the NATO Training Mission in Iraq, providing instructors to the International Police Training Center in Jordan, and engaging in civilian assistance such as outreach to Iraqi parliamentarians and hospitalization of Iraqi children. Croatia established formal diplomatic relations with Iraq in August 2006 and remains interested in opening a permanent mission in Baghdad. REGIONAL LEADERSHIP: WHAT CROATIA BRINGS TO THE TABLE -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Croatia's contributions to NATO operations continue to grow, but its greatest value to Allies may be as a stable leader in an uncertain region. In addition to active participation in A-3 structures, the GoC maintains vigorous and positive bilateral relations with every country in the region. Croatia just concluded its successful chairmanship of the South East European Cooperation Process with the formation of a permanent Regional Cooperation Council (RCC), the successor to the Stability Pact initiative. MFA State Secretary and Sanader confidante Hidajet Biscevic was SIPDIS selected as the first secretary general of the RCC, adding to Croatia's already valuable influence in maintaining regional stability. ¶6. (C) Sanader has constructively engaged his colleagues in the region on a number of key issues, including constitutional reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the final status of Kosovo. The PM will be ready to talk about Croatia's support for the Ahtisaari plan and what we expect to happen near term in Kosovo. BILATERAL ODDS AND ENDS -------------- ZAGREB 00000507 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) If the opportunity arises, the PM may attempt to raise one or two bilateral issues. He may seek concrete USG support for closing the OSCE mission in Zagreb, which other Allies have argued needs to remain through 2008 to finish work on refugee returns and consolidation of progress in the rule of law. We have expressed the USG's appreciation for Sanader's continued commitment to reforms, particularly on refugees, and our willingness to work closely with him on a strategy to complete this important work and close the mission. ¶8. (C) Sanader may also seek the President's support for Croatia's bid for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, as he continues to seek broader Croatian influence in multilateral affairs. BRADTKE