ELECTIONS 2007: WHEN DOES A WIN BECOME A VICTORY?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 001029 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR EUR/SCE, EUR/PPD AND EUR/RPM OSD FOR WINTERNITZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV HR SUBJECT: ELECTIONS 2007: WHEN DOES A WIN BECOME A VICTORY? THE POLITICS OF COALITION BUILDING REF: ZAGREB 1024 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, POL/ECON, Reasons 1.4 B/D THE PARADOX: TWO-PARTY VOTING INCREASES "KING-MAKER" ROLE OF SMALLER PARTIES -------------- ¶1. (SBU) This cable is the final one in Post's series of pre-election reports leading up to Croatia's November 25 parliamentary (Sabor) elections. Polls indicate Croatia's November 25 elections are too close to call. One certainty is that neither of the two largest parties -- the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) nor the opposition Social Democratic Party -- will hold an absolute majority of seats in the 150-155 seat body (the total number of seats will vary depending on diaspora turnout, see reftel). Another certainty is that the vote will reinforce the trend in Croatia to a two party system, with the HDZ and SDP likely sharing 120-125 of the mandates, and smaller parties possibly seeing the number of their representatives cut in half from their current 43 Sabor members. Ironically, the near-even split among the two main parties will increase the focus as potential king-makers on the six to eight smaller parties likely to have representatives in the next Parliament, as well as the eight representatives elected to seats reserved for national minorities. Either the HDZ or the SDP will need to form a coalition with at least three smaller parties to create a governing majority. Two smaller parties (HNS and IDS) have said they would absolutely prefer a coalition with the SDP. Two other parties (the Croatian Peasants' Party, or HSS, and the Croatian Pensioners' Party, or HSU) have indicated they also may prefer a coalition with the SDP. Both the HSS and HSU, however, as well as the eight ethnic minority Sabor members, however, would likely be cautious about tipping the scales away from the HDZ if it wins a plurality of seats over the SDP. WHO WINS? IT MAY BE PRESIDENT MESIC WHO TELLS US -------------- ¶2. (C) It will be up to President Mesic to determine which party, the HDZ or the SDP, is given the mandate to try and form a coalition. At a private lunch with the Ambassador on November 19, Mesic said that he will only do so after consulting with every party represented in the Sabor and discussing what coalition options they are prepared to entertain. Mesic said he would then offer a mandate based on what he learns about which party, the SDP or the HDZ, has the best prospects of forming a majority. He was quite clear that it would be his judgment on which party had the ability to form a coalition, rather than a simple head count of which party had the most seats in the Sabor, that would be the determining factor in his decision. As the SDP is seen to have more potential coalition partners, Mesic's logic may well favor their prospects. What was less clear, however, was whether Mesic might try to influence any of the smaller parties on their choice of which governing party to support. Mesic did reject, however, the SDP's logic that diaspora seats should be discounted in this calculation. As reported reftel, Mesic will treat the (presumably) HDZ diaspora seats the same as any other seat in the Sabor. ONES TO WATCH: PEASANTS, LIBERALS, AND PENSIONERS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The swing seats may well, therefore, be held by the Croatian Peasant Party (HSS),the Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS),and the Croatian Pensioners' Union (HSU). These parties are forecast to hold around three to five seats each. In advance of Mesic's consultations with the parties, we would expect a furious round of campaigning by both HDZ and SDP leaders to entice all three of these parties to commit to a coalition. If the latest polls are to be believed, the SDP will need to entice one or two of these parties (in addition to natural coalition partners HNS and IDS) to form a government; while the HDZ could well need to lure all three. A GRAND COALITION? NOT LIKELY -------------- ¶4. (C) Several weeks ago, President Mesic was publicly raising the option that the HDZ and SDP might form a grand coalition, if neither could easily form a government without the other. In Mesic's comments, this would be a sort of "national unity" government to ensure that internal politics ZAGREB 00001029 002 OF 002 would not jeopardize Croatia's NATO and EU aspirations, and that could push through the reforms needed for those projects. Leaders of both parties, however, have been very critical of the proposal, noting that Croatia has little tradition of such party cooperation (other than a brief period of a national unity government at the moment of Croatia's independence and war with Milosevic's Yugoslavia), and that the country faces no serious crisis meriting such a step. Our own observation is that the antipathy between the SDP and HDZ, and in particular the very personal dislike that leaders of the SDP have for Prime Minister Sanader and several HDZ ministers, would make a grand coalition a very difficult, and presumably short-lived, experience. President Mesic did not raise the possibility at all during his November 19 lunch with the Ambassador. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Unless the small parties improve their political skills markedly in the next three to four years, this round of coalition building may well be their last gasp of political relevance. The smaller parties have slipped precipitously since the high-water mark of multi-partyism in Croatia of the 2000 elections, which brought the six-party, SDP-led coalition to power. By the next national elections in Croatia, voters may be even more inclined to make the simple choice between the center-right HDZ and the center-left SDP. ¶6. (C) The political frailties of these small parties are perhaps best illustrated by the fact that their presence in a coalition with either the SDP or the HDZ will have little policy impact on either government. The Pensioners and the Peasants are in many ways interest groups more than they are parties, and will be listening for pledges from the big parties to boost pension payments and agricultural spending, respectively. The Liberals have long suffered from the lack of political identity, even in the bygone days when force of personalities alone managed to win them a respectable vote. As important as any policy ideas, the smaller parties will be looking for ministerial seats, but they may not individually have enough seats to even force that argument successfully against the dominant HDZ and SDP. BRADTKE