SURVEY SHOWS HERITAGE PARTY THE BIG WINNER OF THE MAY 12

UNCLAS YEREVAN 000984 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV AM SUBJECT: SURVEY SHOWS HERITAGE PARTY THE BIG WINNER OF THE MAY 12 ELECTIONS -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) A recent USAID-funded poll has found that Raffi Hovannisian and his Heritage party gained the greatest increase in recognition and popularity following the May 12 Armenian Parliamentary elections. The poll further showed that the vast majority of the Armenian electorate has very little confidence in the accuracy of the election results or in the prospect of truly free and fair elections in the near future. Hovannisian seems poised to stir up Armenian politics, starting with an August 26 special election in a region where his party did well in May. END SUMMARY. -------------- WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN, WHO'S OUT -------------- ¶2. (SBU) A USAID-commissioned survey done by the International Republican Institute (IRI),the Gallup Organization and the Armenian Sociological Association in mid-July indicated that Raffi Hovannisian's Heritage party had by far the most dramatic increase in party recognition and favorability ratings, while opposition rivals lost ground. Ninety-five percent of respondents indicated that they recognized the Heritage Party by name and 66% of respondents had a favorable opinion of the party. When asked prior to formal election campaigning in March, the same question garnered only a 68% recognition rate with just 28% favorability. While a few other parties enjoyed expected increases in recognition from the election campaign, no party came close to achieving such an increase in both recognition and favorability. The poll revealed that at 29%, the Heritage Party has the lowest unfavorability (negative opinion) rating in the country. It now ties the Prosperous Armenian party in favorability, and beats out the ruling Republican party, which enjoys 54% approval, a rate basically unchanged by the election. ¶3. (SBU) Most rival opposition parties received a slight increase in public awareness, but retained virtually the same low levels of popularity they had had before the election. The National Unity, National Democratic Union, People's, Republic, United Labor and New Times parties all maintained their overwhelmingly unfavorable status. Even Artur Baghdasarian's Orinats Yerkir party, once the leading opposition faction, was only able to maintain equal favorable and unfavorable ratings, despite its showing in the elections in which it (officially) outpolled its Heritage rival. -------------- MAKINGS OF A HORSE RACE? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The poll found that in a hypothetical presidential race that were to include Prime Minister Serzh Sargsian and the Heritage Party chairman, the two politicians are statistically tied and far outpoll any other possible contenders. When respondents were asked to name the top two presidential candidates for whom they would vote, Hovhannissian outpaced Sargsian 36% to 30%. -------------- FREE, FAIR OR FOUL? -------------- ¶5. (U) When asked, sixty-eight percent of those polled responded that they did not believe the May 2007 election was "free and fair." Furthermore, 60% responded that the GOAM was not sincere about efforts to improve the integrity of the 2008 presidential poll and there would therefore not be any real improvement by then. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU): Hovannisian 's brilliantly-run pre-election campaign successfully converted the sky-high personal favorability ratings Hovannisian has long enjoyed in Armenia into a very respectable number of ballots cast. This poll shows that that success has bred additional success: now that the party has proved itself, many more voters seem prepared to back Heritage than voted for it on May 12. Meanwhile, Hovannisian 's most credible potential rivals for the opposition banner are slipping backward rapidly. One test of his favorability surge will come August 26 during the special, re-run election for the 15th district. Hovannisian is running for the majoritarian seat. That contest -- in a district in which the Heritage party polled well on May 12 -- will be an early bellwether of Hovannisian's effectiveness and a chance to make or possibly break Heritage's political momentum. END COMMENT. PERINA