ARMENIA'S SOUTHERNMOST REGION ON ELECTIONS: SO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000594 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM AM SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S SOUTHERNMOST REGION ON ELECTIONS: SO FAR, SO GOOD YEREVAN 00000594 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Poloff Daniel M. Renna for reason 1.4(b) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a late April visit to Syunik marz, the most remote and one of the poorest of Armenia's regions, Poloffs learned that the voting public is engaged and is generally looking forward to the May 12 polls. This despite a widespread sense of intimidation amongst the populace and trepidation towards the GOAM leadership's repeated calls for transparent elections. The local branch of the ruling Republicans has a more heavy-handed reputation here than in most other parts of the country. Nevertheless, political parties of all stripes are active and seem to be doing their best, in relatively unhindered conditions, to get their respective messages out to Armenia's southernmost constituents. While the majoritarian races will by all accounts ensure the Republicans two seats in the new National Assembly, the proportional race seems much more in the air. END SUMMARY. -------------- REPUBLICAN CONTROL CREATES CALM IN KAPAN -------------- ¶2. (C) Poloffs found the electoral situation in Kapan, capital of Syunik region, to be relatively calm as a result of the strong, centralized Republican control. We met with the representative of the OSCE,s Kapan office, Garik Chilingarian, who gave details on the level of Republican control. (NOTE: Chilingarian is a field representative of the OSCE's standing Office in Yerevan, not a member of the ODIHR Election Observation Mission. END NOTE). Chilingarian told us that the Kapan mayor has taken control of the town's public space, going so far as to allocate half to his mother-in-law in a 99-year lease. Chilingarian expressed frustration that residents here are "drug addicts" in that they are addicted to handouts and simply wait for elections for further assistance. He commented that he is "100% sure" that people are being intimidated in Kapan and that party members are offering people money in exchange for detailed passport lists, presumably to use for fraudulent means in the election. Chilingarian also claimed that the Kapan mayor ordered police at one point to take down opposition Orinats Yerkir posters. ¶3. (C) A similary-negative view came from a meeting with the OSCE Election Observation Mission,s two long-term observers (LTOs) covering Syunik. The two highlighted problems they witnessed in Kapan, specifically with the campaign of the Heritage Party led by Raffi Hovhannissian. The LTOs said people did not want to take brochures from Hovhannissian at his rally in Kapan, noting there was an air of fear among the crowd but that they could not put their finger on the source. At this same rally, the LTOs observed the Kapan mayor and his deputy watching from their Republican Party banner-adorned balcony overlooking the square, specifically pointing to people, calling out some by name and telling them to leave the rally. One LTO specifically said that some locals have told them the election process is a farce. Poloffs held a subsequent meeting with a representative at the Heritage Party office in Kapan who confirmed that people are frightened to support the party publicly but are privately sympathetic to Hovhannissian,s cause. ¶4. (C) Poloffs found a much different perspective from Angela Makyan, the dynamic local coordinator for the electoral reform NGO It,s Your Choice (IYC),who praised Kapan and Kajaran residents for being more informed of election laws and changes to the electoral code. She commented that the psychology of these voters is different with this election as she believes they truly think their vote is secret now. However she later admitted that people in Syunik may not answer opinion polls truthfully because they do not trust that the opinion poll process is secret. Makyan commented that opposition parties appear to be operating with fewer obstacles and noted that Orinats Yerkir party representatives freely spoke in a recent townhall meeting and distributed campaign literature. She spoke at length about the successes IYC has had in the region, highlighting the involvement of disabled voters in the observation process and the enthusiasm of many local residents for IYC,s work. She expects to have 302 IYC observers in Syunik province on Election Day. ¶5. (C) The Dashink Party representative in Kapan told Poloffs that the party is operating without intimidation from pro-government figures in the region, noting that its campaign style is focused on door-to-door family-based discussions rather than large rallies. He said Dashink, as a YEREVAN 00000594 002.2 OF 003 party appealing to war veterans, is the party of compassion in Syunik since it understands better than Yerevan politicians about how people here have been affected by the Karabakh conflict. Vardan said there is more interest and attention being paid to the party now since its inception in 2006, which he attributes to widely-distributed party literature and the personality draw of party leader Samvel Babayan. He told Poloffs that the party expects to have three proxies in each precinct of Meghri, Kapan, and Kajaran. -------------- NERVOUS IN KAJARAN, A COMPANY TOWN -------------- ¶6. (C) Kajaran, slightly further down the main road from Kapan, is a unique town in Armenia in that its residents enjoy full employement from the Kajaran Mining Company, responsible for mining the country's biggest molybdenum stores. Full employment, however, comes with its own drawbacks. Workers see themselves as beholden to the political whims of the plant's director, Maxim Hakobian, who is reputed to be a close friend of President Kocharian and whose son, Vahe, is the incumbent Republican MP from the region, now seeking a second term. Speaking with Kajaran-based Prosperous Armenia (PA) representatives in Kapan, Poloffs learned that even that (pro-governmental) party has been treated badly; PA members have been demoted or fired from their company positions, and some PA loyalists have been threatened with the loss of their local businesses or even their homes. According to them, PA is pushing forward with its campaign, going door-to-door talking to potential voters and actually joining forces with other opposition parties to get their message out. They have been threatened, they said, but they "are not afraid." -------------- CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM IN GORIS -------------- ¶7. (C) Goris, Syunik's second city, was originally poised to host what could have been a thoroughly interesting majoritarian race between Dashink founder and NK war hero Samvel Babayan and Aleksandr "Sashik" Sargsian, the millionaire brother of Prime Minister Serzh Sargsian. Once the campaign began, however, (and just after being hauled in for questioning by the National Security Service) Babayan opted to expend his energy on the proportional (party list) campaign, and withdrew from the majoritarian race. At a roundtable discussion with nine USG election assistance grantees, Poloffs learned that while there is some sense of intimidation in Goris, they thought that it was not as palpable as they had expected. They noted that Goris had seen several rallies by various political parties over the campaign, and they had not seen blatant instances of intimidation or of the authorities attempting to impede them. While some had their own ideas about why Babayan, who in their opinion would have been a formidable contender against Sashik, bowed out of that race, many believed that he had been offered some kind of deal to let Sashik have it. As it stands, Sargsian faces only a candidate from the Heritage Party on May 12 and is highly favored to win. -------------- CYNICISM IN SISIAN -------------- ¶8. (C) Poloffs met with representatives from Vorotanyan Ghoghangner TV in Sisian, the northernmost town in the region, who were rather pessimistic about this election season. They claimed to cover the activities of any political party that comes to town but noted they received push-back on covering Artashes Geghamian and his National Unity Party,s activities that day, noting NSS officers were all around the TV,s building. Both felt that the people definitely fear the government and were sure that the people who vote against pro-government parties will not have their votes counted as such. One commented that 60-70% of the voters would easily sell their votes. The two advised Poloffs to keep close watch during the three days leading up to the election, on Election Day, and on the vote count that night. They expected bribes and pressure on voters to increase. ¶9. (C) On a positive note, Poloffs observed several campaign advertisements on the television in the office, specifically those of the Heritage, United Labor, ARF-Dashnaksutyun, Armenian National Movement and the Republican Parties. We also observed the USAID-funded public service announcement on proper voting day procedures during a network commercial YEREVAN 00000594 003.2 OF 003 break. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) On the whole, the people of Syunik seem eager to participate in the May 12 Parliamentary elections. The opposition appears to be operating in a less restictive environment than in 2003, albeit with some obstacles. Nevertheless, it will take a lot to bring the kind of prosperity to the Armenian panhandle envisioned by the vast majority who have seen more socio-economic decline in the recent past. Given that previous elections have been a serious disappointment to many in Syunik, NGO representatives with whom we spoke recognize that this is an overall improved electoral environment in which it is possible to have hope that this time the voters voices might be heard. GODFREY