INCREASING TENSIONS EXPECTED IN LORI, MORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000587 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM ASEC AM SUBJECT: INCREASING TENSIONS EXPECTED IN LORI, MORE VIOLENCE POSSIBLE YEREVAN 00000587 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: PolOff K.L. Fisher, reasons 1.4 (b,d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Embassy officers on May 4 visited Vanadzor (Lori Region),the largely-impoverished third-largest city of Armenia to examine pre-election conditions. Typically, pro-government officials claimed there were no problems in the run-up to 12 May while opposition and NGO figures noted otherwise. Different colorful perspectives were offered on the recent murder of a reputed Viktor Dallakian supporter and the intimidation of an opposition female majoritarian candidate. END SUMMARY. -------------- LORI TENSE AMID VIOLENCE -------------- ¶2. (C) The majoritarian race in Territorial Election Commission (TEC) district #30, encompassing the Vanadzor area, is expected to be tense on Election Day as incumbent MP Viktor Dallakian (an opposition-minded independent) runs again Republican-backed independent Vahram Baghdasaryan. Both men held majoritarian seats in the previous National Assembly, but redistricting left Vanadzor with just one majoritarian seat for the two incumbents to fight over. The executive director of Lori TV, Narine Avetisyan, noted that Dallakian had lately been under increasing pressure and said he was afraid to appear on any local television broadcast, including the seemingly more neutral Lori network. ¶3. (C) Hrant Hakobian, a reputed supporter of Viktor Dallakian, was stabbed to death on April 27 by thugs close to opponent Vahram Baghdasarian. Emboffs asked the local Helsinki Citizen's Assembly (HCA) representative, Artur Sakunc, about the incident who said he had been personally investigating the matter, speaking to Hakobian's parents and neighbors. Sakunc informed us that one of the attackers that had been arrested and held for the murder was observed on the street just days later and seen on the margins of a Dallakian meeting on May 3 apparently getting consistent reporting on the crowd from a stream of men going between the car and the crowd. Sakunc told Emboffs that local broadcaster "0-2 TV" went off the air in mid-broadcast right before the commentator was to report on the murder. Sakunc said he had not been able to access any opposition news websites recently, specifically A1 , for coverage of the incident, a point corroborated by the translator for the OSCE's long term observers in Vanadzor. ¶4. (C) We met in Yerevan May 2 with Victor Dallakian himself in the embassy. Dallakian told us that Hakobian's links to his campaign had been exaggerated by media accounts. Hakobian had never been connected with Dallakian's campaign, and indeed Dallakian had never to his knowledge met the man, he said. Dallakian characterized Hakobian as a "supporter" in a very generic sense. He told us that Hakobian was something of a "big man" around the neighborhood, of a type typical in Armenia. He was a local small business owner who had had a great deal of informal influence with his neighbors; the alpha male of the backgammon-playing boys who hang around on the local front stoops. The way Dallakian tells it, Republican Party organizers came around aggressively politicking for Vahram Baghdassarian, and sought Hakobian's support. Hakobian declined, saying he favored Dallakian. The dispute later made its way to some dark alley, where Hakobian ended up dead, with at least a dozen stab wounds, and broken ribs, sternum, and collarbone. Dallakian also volunteered that Hakobian was known to have "shady" friends and business associates. He said, however, that the public mood in Vanadzor was quite tense in the wake of the incident, which seems to have been born out by our other interlocutors. ¶5. (C) Dallakian had other interesting comments to share with us. Despite near-universal belief that he had fallen out with Prosperous Armenia (PA) over the winter, Dallakian told us that in fact he still has a quiet arrangement with PA. Though it is true that President Kocharian (the PA puppet-master, according to Dallakian's portrayal) is not fond of Dallakian, PA leader Gagik Tsarukian remains friendly with Dallakian and the regional PA organization in Lori is quietly backing Dallakian's candidacy against the Republican-backed Vahram Baghdassarian. Dallakian hinted we would see him in some kind of PA-sponsored leadership role in either parliament or the government after the elections, if YEREVAN 00000587 002.2 OF 003 PA proves successful at the polls. ¶6. (C) In another incident, People's Party of Armenia majoritarian candidate Larisa Paremuzyan, running in TEC #31 east of Vanadzor, reportedly was intimidated by unknown assailants last week when their black BMW cut off her campaign vehicle on a Lori road, ordering her out of the car. Paremuzyan claimed one of the men grabbed her arm and told her to stop campaigning in area. She called HCA's Sakunc immediately to report the incident and then went to local police to file a complaint. Sakunc opined that the men were probably connected to rival Republican majoritarian candidate Karen Saribekyan, the local director of the Armenian electrical network branch. Governor Aram Kocharyan offered an improbable version of the events in a meeting with Emboffs, suggesting that the men involved were intoxicated from a party and merely took her hand to invite her to the festivities. -------------- -------------- LOCAL OPPOSITION AND NGOS NOTE WIDESPREAD OBSTACLES -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Emboffs' meeting with HCA's Sakunc further yielded an energetic discussion on widespread regional violations he had personally observed or had been reported to him. He highlighted the Republican Party's strength in Lori and said that Prime Minister Serzh Sargsian appeared to be using all administrative resources to control the situation. Sakunc noted that the Republicans recently bought airtime on Lori TV to advertise free health services courtesy of the party. He also mentioned that figures close to Kocharian have communicated to Lori Republicans and police not to engage in any violations or interfere in the election run-up, presumably to avoid any appearance of violating international standards. Sakunc provided the Emboffs with an extensive Armenian-language list of other violations in the region published by his office and expressed frustration that past OSCE reports had not included similar observations. He claimed that he would publicly criticize the OSCE if the organization's next election report again neglected to note his findings. ¶8. (C) Emboffs met with Lori TV executive director, Narine Avetisyan, who commented that, in comparison to the flawed 2003 elections, there was less pressure from authorities on TV networks across the country. Local NSS officers were also not interfering with Lori TV's reporting lately, whereas in the past the same officers had hassled TV executives and confiscated reporting materials. Avetisyan, however, went to pains throughout the interview to differentiate between her comments made as a representative of the network and those as a private citizen, most of which surrounded local pro-government figures or the Hakobian murder. She implored Emboffs that her name not be revealed in connection with her private comments. She claimed her property had been vandalized, including a destructive stoning of her car, when comments attributed to her were leaked to the public. She expressed concern that tensions would increase in TEC #30 and expected that violence would occur outside polling stations where tensions cannot be mitigated by an international observer presence. ¶9. (C) The local head of Orinats Yerkir's (OY) office and one of OY's three female majoritarian candidates, Victoria Harutyunyan, told Emboffs that pressure is being put on local teachers and students' parents to vote Republican, highlighting that students are being told they won't graduate if their parents vote for any other party. They both noticed continued NSS and local police presence at OY regional campaign events. -------------- OSCE LTOS FINDING FLAWS -------------- ¶10. (C) The OSCE's Lori LTOs outlined for Emboffs the notable campaigns in Vanadzor and Spitak and spoke at length about the deplorable conditions of residents still living in temporary shelters from the devastating 1988 earthquake, emphasizing those citizens' total lack of interest in the electoral process. The LTOs noted a legal battle in Spitak, where Republican majoritarian candidate Arkady Hambardzumyan had spent more on campaigning expenses than he reported as having funds for in his campaign's financial disclosure documents. His opponent has called for Hambardzumyan to be de-registered for this offense and reportedly plans to take the case to the European Court of Human Rights for consideration. The LTOs were not optimistic that that the YEREVAN 00000587 003.2 OF 003 local appeal would be successful, however, as they deemed Hambardzumyan's control to be rock-solid in Spitak. Sakunc at HCA told Emboffs that people in Spitak are afraid they'll lose their livelihoods at the local plant if they attend non-Republican campaign meetings. -------------- BUT PRO-GOVERNMENT FORCES CLAIM CLEAN PROCESS -------------- ¶11. (C) Lori marzpet (governor) Kocharian pointed out the many diverse political party offices on the main street of Vanadzor as evidence of real political freedom. He lamented the lack of political culture among residents, which he says makes it difficult for some to choose for whom to vote, but felt that he has created an equal electoral environment for all participating parties. Kocharyan boasted that all of the majoritarian candidates are more active than ever before. ¶12. (C) A brief meeting with the local ARF-Dashnaksutyun chapter also yielded positive talk on the pre-election environment. The party's local representative said he had no problems to report. The party is relying on its traditional, nationalist message in regional campaign efforts, reiterating a common message heard elsewhere that the party needs more parliament seats to enact any change in the new government. He anticipated tensions to increase in the days ahead of the election but did not expect them to manifest in violence, providing no other details. He recalled difficulties in recent weeks with organizing the numerous electoral changes in the political process but thought that things were improving now as the marz's TECs had a firmer grip on these changes. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) For whatever reason, Lori Marz seems perhaps the most contentious flashpoint this election cycle. If Dallakian's comments can be relied upon -- a still-open question -- the implication is that the Republicans and Prosperous Armenia are particularly, albeit stealthily, at each other's throats in Lori. We will have one OSCE-accredited short-term observer in the marz on Election Day, who will be able to offer a first-hand view of how events play out there. GODFREY