ARMENIAN ELECTIONS: VIEWS FROM ARAGOTSOTN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000586

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN ELECTIONS: VIEWS FROM ARAGOTSOTN


YEREVAN 00000586 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: GSO Trevor Boyd, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Characterizing the pre-election campaigning
as "boring," governmental, non-governmental, political party
and international observers in the Aragotsotn region of
Armenia foresee a parliamentary election devoid of
significant fraud in their area. Interlocutors tell us that
there was a clear message from the President's office in
Yerevan to conduct clean elections. With the district
already a stronghold of support for the ruling Republican
Party, no one, it seems, appears to want to risk provoking
ire from Yerevan with Election Day tomfoolery. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Though only thirty minutes from Yerevan, the
Aragotsotn region is among the most rural of Armenia's eleven
regions. The region, constituting nearly ten percent of
nation's territory, is home to less than five percent of its
population. Once a center of science in Soviet Armenia,
Aragotsotn is now known for its agriculture production and
animal husbandry.


3. (C) Two Emboffs visited the region on April 30 and
conducted meetings in the regional capital of Ashtarak with
Siraznik Hovsepyan, regional coordinator of the NGO "Its Your
Choice," Gabriel Gyozalyan, Governor and regional Dashnak
Party Chairman, Manas Arakelyan, Regional Board Member of the
Prosperous Armenia Party, Sargis Sahakyan, Deputy Governor
and Chairman of the Ashtarak branch of the Republic Party,
and Tayo Oke and Trudy Hughes, OSCE long-term observers.

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MARVELOUSLY DULL 'ROUND HERE
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4. (C) Characterizing the campaigning as "boring," Canada's
Trudy Hughes and Britain's Tayo Oke, OSCE long-term observers
in Ashtarak, told us that they've heard of no significant
violations since their March 22 arrival. The region, they
said, is firmly Republican Party territory and, with the
region's electoral support "sewn up," there should be few
instances of "unnecessary" fraud on election day.


5. (C) Siraznik Hovsepyan, regional coordinator of the NGO
"Its Your Choice" concurred, noting that his watchdog
organization has received "no alarming" calls regarding
electoral hijinks. What calls they have received, he said,
were aesthetic-related complaints from private citizens
regarding the placement of campaign material on buildings.

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EQUAL ACCESS TO THE PEOPLE
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6. (C) Given its proximity to Yerevan, Ashtarak has hosted
visits from the leadership of all of major political parties.
Regional Governor Gabriel Gyozalyan told us that his office
has coordinated closely with the Mayoralty to ensure that
every political party and individual candidate has received
permission to campaign in the region, including holding
rallies in the central square.

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NO REPORTS OF ATTEMPTS AT VOTE BUYING
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7. (C) A Peace Corps volunteer told us that the citizens in
his village are actually disappointed that no one has tried
to buy their votes. In previous elections, parties plied
voters with flour, oil, and other basic necessities.
Villagers, he said, have come to rely upon these incentives
each electoral cycle, and are angry that they are not getting
the goods this time.

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THE PRESIDENT WILL HOLD US PERSONALLY LIABLE FOR FRAUD
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8. (C) All interlocutors note that President Kocharian's
office has been heavily involved in promoting a "No Fraud"
election. Gyozalyan noted that he and the two Chairmen of
Aragotsotn' Territorial Election Committees were "summoned"
on short notice to Yerevan on a Sunday to have a private
meeting with the President's Deputy Chief of Staff. At this
meeting, he said, they were told that the regional
leadership, who are appointed by the President, would be held
"personally liable" should there be any fraud from their
region. Fraud, he said he was told, was to be minimized.
Gyozalyan noted that the anti-fraud focus was a result of the
President's office fearing the loss of Millennium Challenge,
Lincy Foundation and World Bank monies. He was going to pass
this message, he said, to the regions precinct election

YEREVAN 00000586 002.2 OF 002


commissions.

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VOTER ROLLS LARGEST POTENTIAL SOURCE OF FRAUD
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9. (C) Interlocutors highlighted concerns with the list of
eligible voters as the most likely place for fraud to occur.
Like most of Armenia, upwards of twenty percent of
Aragotsotn's registered voters work abroad, most in Russia.
Armenian legislative changes preclude absentee or
Embassy-based voting. With less than ten percent of the
Aragotsotn citizenry formally affiliated with a party, the
pool of the potential supporters is immense. All
interlocutors noted that they are working with the Police's
OVIR division to update the voter rolls.

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SO WE WILL STILL SEND OBSERVERS
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10. (C) Political party and non-governmental observers will
swamp polling places on election day. Hovsepyan said that
"Its Your Choice" will send two observers to each of the
region's 163 precincts. Gyozalyan, Arakelyan, and Sahakyan
noted that they will each deploy similar numbers of partisan
observers who should further deter chicanery on May 12.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) OSCE reports from recent elections, which have been
critical of Armenia's electoral performance, have never
singled out Aragotsotn as a place of concern. Given its
tradition as a stronghold of Republican Party support, fraud
appears unlikely. Actually running a clean poll may be the
path of least resistance in Aragotsotn. END COMMENT.
GODFREY