ARMENIA POLITICAL PARTY PRIMER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 YEREVAN 000559

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STATE FOR EUR/CARC, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA POLITICAL PARTY PRIMER

REF: A) YEREVAN 490 B) YEREVAN 522

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Classified By: Steve Banks, Pol/Econ chief, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: This cable provides a basic reference to the
political parties in the May 12 parliamentary race. Out of
seventy-four registered political parties in Armenia only 24
parties and one bloc registered to participate in the
parliamentary election, and two have since dropped out. END
SUMMARY

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PRO-GOVERNMENT PARTIES IN THE RACE
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2. (C) REPUBLICAN PARTY OF ARMENIA: The Republican Party of
Armenia (RPA) is the dominant party in the current ruling
coalition. The once-minor opposition party was transformed
almost overnight into a vehicle of power-wielding elites
after the abrupt 1998 fall from power of President Levon
Ter-Petrossian. The RPA has gained a reputation as the party
of entrenched special interests over its last eight years in
power. Sargsian formally joined the party in July 2006, when
he was still Defense Minister, triggering a new wave of
wealthy elites to jump on board the RPA bandwagon. The
Republicans have held 39 seats in the National Assembly since
the 2003 elections. Predictions that the death of Prime
Minister (and founding Republican) Andranik Margarian might
lead to a rupture in the party have so far proved unfounded,
despite occasional whispers of "old" and "new" factions
within the organization. Margarian was both a respected
elder statesman at the party's helm, and a bridge-builder
among various competing interests.


3. (C) PROSPEROUS ARMENIA: Prosperous Armenia (PA),the
political vehicle of oligarch Gagik Tsarukian, exploded onto
the political scene in 2006, seemingly from nowhere.
Tsarukian quickly attracted widespread popularity with

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high-profile commodity donations (e.g. potatos and wheat
seeds) to the working poor. Tsarukian is at least a crony --
if not the created political and business instrument, as many
allege -- of President Kocharian. The president has been
very circumspect, however, about his political preferences,
and has not shown any overt preference for either PA or the
Republican Party. The key unanswered question of this
election is to what extent the Republicans and Prosperous
Armenia have coordinated their plans, and how vigorously they
intend to compete with each other. The evidence has been
mixed; but suggests that if any agreement exists at the top
level, it has not been communicated down to the grassroots,
where fistfights and more have been the norm.


4. (C) THE ARMENIAN REVOLUTIONARY FEDERATION-DASHNAKTSUTYUN
(ARF): The ARF has 11 seats in the current Parliament, and
has had a historically loyal following of 10 to 12 percent of
the population, but probably has little chance to expand from
that base. One of Armenia's oldest political parties, with
roots dating back nearly a century, the ARF is one of the few
political forces in Armenia which is based on ideology and
not around one personality. ARF members trend to have a
sharply nationalistic worldview, and are widely considered
rather extremist on issues of national security and Armenia's
relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. The party's avowed
Marxism has seemed more notional than operative in recent
years. The ARF has strong ties with like-minded sister
organizations among Armenian diaspora communities around the
world. According to the ruling coalition's power-sharing
agreement, the ARF now controls four ministerial portfolios,
the National Assembly (NA) deputy chairman seat, and some of
the NA Standing Committees. The ARF often seems something of
an outsider in the ruling coalition, with its highly
centralized and doctrinaire party control over what policies
the ARF will support, and its willingness to skewer the
government over corruption. However, on other occasions it
can be very much a team player. Its ministers are, to a man,
the most effective and least corrupt.


5. (C) UNITED LABOR PARTY (ULP): One of Armenia,s newer
parties, the ULP was founded by influential businessman
Gurgen Arsenyan in 2002 and has 6 seats in the Parliament. A
small party without a nation-wide presence, it came to the NA
after the 2003 elections thanks to the support of some
wealthy industrialists, whose interests seem more mercenary
than principled. The ULP has ostensibly a centrist platform

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and is primarily pro-presidential. The ULP joined the ruling
coalition after the Rule of Law (Orinats Yerkir) party left
the government in May 2006. In exchange, the ULP received
one ministerial portfolio and the chairmanship of the NA
Social& Youth Issues Standing Committee. The party currently
claims to have a better presence in the regions and a
stronger structure than in 2003.

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THE FRACTURED OPPOSITION
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6. (C) RULE OF LAW (ORINATS YERKIR)(OY): The party's
Armenian name, Orinats Yerkir, can be translated a number of
ways; among the most common are Rule of Law, Country of Laws,
and Legal State. OY is led by its young and ambitious
founder Artur Baghdassarian, who from 2003 to 2006 served as
parliament speaker. The party currently has eight seats in
the NA. A right- centrist party, OY emphasizes rule of law,
legal values, and social justice, and a generally pro-Western
foreign policy. The party left the governing coalition in
May 2006, ostensibly over foreign policy differences. In
fact Baghdassarian and his party were almost certainly pushed
out of power because the brash Baghdassarian went too far in
criticizing his coalition partners and for grabbing too much
limelight with his frequent foreign trips. The party is
widely alleged to have achieved much of its earlier electoral
success with the secret backing and financing of Serzh
Sargsian. Boasting a well-organized structure, OY is one of
the few parties to have strong regional branches. The party
has repeatedly complained of administrative pressure on its
campaigning activities, and has been denounced as a traitor
by the president. Baghdassarian retains a certain amount of
genuine popular support, according to polls, but his
opportunistic ways have left him mistrusted by almost all
sides of the political scene.


7. (C) NATIONAL UNITY (OR 'NATIONAL ACCORD') PARTY: With
seven seats in the outgoing National Assembly, the National
Unity party of Soviet-era Yerevan mayor Artashes Geghamian,
is one of the biggest opposition parties in Armenia and still
retains a Soviet-type "leader-oriented" structure. Gehgamian
placed third in the 2003 presidential elections and gained
popularity through his anti-Kocharian populist speeches.
National Unity is a populist, left-oriented party, with an
election platform pitched strongly at low- wage and
unemployed voters, though he also attracts support from
Soviet nostalgists and cultural intelligentsia. Geghamian
and his party have had a series of public disagreements with
the opposition parties of the Justice Bloc during the past
two years: when Orinats Yerkir moved to the opposition field
in 2006, Geghamian harshly criticized them for alleged ties
with then-Defense Minister Sargsian. Geghamian's behavior
and relatively mild rhetoric in recent months seem consistent
with local accusations that Geghamian has made some sort of
bargain with pro-government forces. That said, National
Unity is in any case widely considered a lock to win seats in
parliament, based on its reliable constituency.


8. (C) PEOPLE,S PARTY OF ARMENIA (PPA): Among the strongest
of the "traditional opposition" PPA was founded in 1999 by
the late NA Speaker Karen Demirchian, a popular former first
secretary of the Armenian Communist Party. Demirchian,s

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son, Stepan, "inherited" the party after the parliament
shootings in 1999 that killed his father. The PPA once united
the so-called "red directors" and former Soviet nomenclatura,
but now is known mostly for its hostility to President
Kocharian and the ruling Republicans. The PPA's repeated
mantra is that the 2003 presidential elections were
fraudulent and that President Kocharian was "illegitimately
re-elected," and the party accuses Kocharian's administration
of multiple abuses of presidential powers. PPA political ads
during the campaign have featured 2004 footage of PPA
protesters bleeding from wounds suffered when police broke up
the rally. The party has 5 seats in the parliament and is
considered to be a right centrist party. Though Demirchian
might genuinely have rivaled, if not exceeded, Kocharian's
support in the 2003 presidential race, his popularity since
then has plummeted to a modest core of (mostly elderly) true
believers, who still cherish Karen Demirchian's memory and
remain outraged over the 2003 outcome; a residual group that
probably remains large enough to pass the threshold and win
seats. In our recent meetings, however, Demirchian has again
focused more on plans to rally popular protest if the

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elections are stolen, as he suspects, than on legislative
plans. (NOTE: The PPA must not be confused with the
similarly named People's Party of Tigran Karapetyan. See
paragraph 12. END NOTE)


9. (C) REPUBLIC PARTY: The Republic Party (RP) was founded
in 2002 by ex-Prime Minister Aram Z. Sargsian, the most
consistently outspoken and sharply critical opposition
leaders. Like PPA, Republic was formed by a Kocharian
political opponent after the split in the Republican Party.
Aram is the younger brother of the late PM Vazgen Sargsian,
who was also assassinated during the 1999 parliament attack.
After the November 2005 constitutional referendum, Sargsyan
attempted once again to mobilize public discontent but
utterly failed to garner support. In the final weeks of
campaigning, the Republic Party has formed a de facto
alliance with the new "Impeachment Bloc" (see below) and the
strident, but minuscule, New Times party of Aram Karapatyen;
the three have begun to combine their public rallies. The
party is avowedly pro-western and its platform is based on
liberal values. Aram Sargsian's dour manner, impotently
strident tactics, and bellicose rhetoric have left him a
party which is much smaller even than the much-diminished
PPA, whose leader is at least seen as likeable. Sargsian has
told us that his protest rallies will begin May 13. Sargsian
has cried wolf too often, however, to be likely to draw much
support. He has many times over the past four years
proclaimed "the revolution" was starting, only to turn out
bare dozens of demonstrators to support the cause. (NOTE:
Republic Party leader Aram Zavenovich Sargsian should not be
confused with the unrelated Aram Gasparovich Sargsian, leader
of the even more politically insignificant Democratic Party
of Armenia, which is also a registered contender in the
parliamentary race. END NOTE)

10 (C) DASHINK (ALLIANCE) PARTY: Dashink was created by
former "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Defense Minister" (and NK
war hero) Samvel Babayan, and was registered in December

2005. (NOTE: Babayan was sentenced in the "NKR" for 14 years
in prison in March 2000 for allegedly attempting the murder
of Karabakh &President8 Arkady Ghukasyan. Babayan was
released from prison in September 2004, when a court ruled
that he was not healthy enough to serve out his sentence. END
NOTE.) Babayan had registered to run as a majoritarian
candidate against Serzh Sargsian's brother, but pulled out of
the potentially tense district race shortly after. He
claimed the election there could not be free and fair because
of the Republican Party,s heavy reliance on its
&administrative resources,8 and has contented himself with
running as the head of his party's list. Press commentators
pointed to Babayan,s brief detention by the National
Security Service on illegal arms possession before his
pull-out as possible government intimidation to drop out of
the race. Babayan has been something of a cipher. Our read
is that his war hero credentials were sufficient that it was
embarrassing to let him continue rotting in jail, but that he
does not have political backing from ruling party circles for
his political enterprise. Dashink has joined with the tiny,
but well-pedigreed and diaspora-connected political party
Ramkavar. (NOTE: We commonly use the Armenian word Dashink
for this party, to avoid confusion with the more generic term
"alliance" which has its own legal meaning in Armenian
political party/parliamentary law. END NOTE)


11. (C) IMPEACHMENT BLOC: The Impeachment Bloc is a new
entity which arose in recent weeks, having first come into
being briefly under the name the "Alternative Movement."
Impeachment has drawn both notoriety and moderate
participation in its rallies with its simple battle cry to
throw out "the Karabakhis": specifically, Kocharian, Serzh
Sargsian, and (technically non-Karabakhi) Gagik Tsarukian.
The word "Impeachment"--borrowed intact from English--is the
same in both Armenian and Russian, and the repeated chanting
of the word features largely in Impeachment rallies, though
in fact the bloc does not have the technical meaning of the
word in mind. The leading figures in Impeachment came from a
disaffected wing of the Armenian National Movement.
Impeachment has found common cause with Aram Z. Sargsian's
Republic Party and with the New Times party. The three
together probably will not amount to much, although the three
groups' combined rallies have probably drawn as much or more
participation as anyone, of up to perhaps 1000 people.


12. (C) HERITAGE PARTY: Heritage Party is the political

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vehicle of former AmCit and former foreign minister Raffi
Hovhanissian, who grew up in the United States. Hovhanissian
himself enjoys high favorability ratings in U.S.-funded
polls, but the same polls suggest few people plan to vote for
him. It seems that Hovhanissian may be seen as too much of a
"nice guy" for Armenian voters to believe he could succeed in
the shark-filled political waters. Hovhanissian also has
practically no organizational base or natural constituency,
although his American-style campaign methods look as
professional as any in the race.


13. (C). PEOPLE'S PARTY (PP): Tigran Karapetyan's People's
Party (not to be confused with Stepan Demirchian's PPA,
above) is much lower profile than the PPA. The populist
Karapetyan may have some chance of squeaking into parliament
with the support mostly of rural villagers and pensioners.


14. (C) THE UNITED LIBERAL NATIONAL PARTY: Known by its
Armenian acronym, MIAK, which is a word play on the Armenian
word for "only"; (slogan: "Your ONLY correct decision!").
MIAK is a brand-new party that barely constituted itself in
time to register for the election. Its leaders and members
are drawn mostly from young Armenian businessmen who have
studied abroad, especially at British and American
universities. The party leadership overlaps substantially
with the membership of the British Embassy exchange program
alumni association. Full of bright, idealistic (if perhaps
nave),and pro-Western young people, the newborn party hopes
only to build some name recognition during this cycle as a
foundation for future growth. They have posted several
prominent billboards around Yerevan, but seem to have little
chance of getting anywhere this time around.

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NOT APPEARING IN THIS FILM
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15. (C) Several moderately notable -- at least by name
recognition or historical prominence -- parties and political
figures have chosen not to participate. Former prime
minister Vazgen Manukian's National Democratic Union was an
early dropout, not even going though the motions to file its
registration. Manukian proclaimed weeks ago (once he failed
in his opposition coalition negotiations) that the conditions
for the election were already unfair. We presume he
recognized, correctly, that his party had practically no
chance by itself of winning enough votes to make into
parliament. The rump Armenian National Movement (ANM;
sometimes rendered as Pan-Armenian National Movement) has
likewise realized the futility of its race, without the
political cover of a unified opposition bloc, and has dropped
out. Up until the 1998 fall from power of President Levon
Ter-Petrossian, the ANM had been by far the dominant party.
However, Ter-Petrossian, the once-acclaimed leader of
Armenia's massive popular independence uprising in 1990-91,
amassed a deep and widespread public antipathy for himself
and his party over his eight years of perceived misrule. The
bitter hangover of this unpopularity has made the ANM party's
brand identity among the most despised in Armenia--one which
the party would have been wiser to abandon long since.


16. (U) KEEPING UP WITH WHO'S WHO: To avoid voter confusion,
the proportional representation ballots will list not only
the party name, but also the top three names on each party's
list, to aid voters in remembering which party label goes
with the politician whose name is better known to them. This
also helps to distinguish the many similarly-named parties
from each other, and would undermine any deliberate "dirty
tricks" campaign to confuse voters over which party is which.


17. (U) The complete list of Central Election Commission
registered political parties and the bloc:
The National Democratic Party
The National Solidarity party
The National Unity party
The Prosperous Armenia party
The Dashink party
The Heritage party
The People's Party
The Democratic Path party
The Armenian Revolutionary Federation - Dashnaktsutyun
The Progressive Party of Armenia (Officially Withdrawn)
The Democratic Party of Armenia
The Youth Party of Armenia

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The People's Party of Armenia
The Communist Party of Armenia
The Republican Party of Armenia
The Marxist Party of Armenia
The Armenian National Movement (Officially Withdrawn)
The Republic party
The United Labor Party
The United National Liberal Party
The New Times party
The Hunchak Social Democratic Party of Armenia
The Christian Democratic Revival party
The Orinats Yerkir party
The Impeachment bloc


18. (U) Additional reporting and reference resources may be
found at Embassy Yerevan's classied intranet (SIPRNet)
website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/yerevan/
GODFREY