BOOM! EXPLOSIONS MARK THE FIRST WEEK OF ARMENIA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000443 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017 TAGS: PHUM PGOV AM SUBJECT: BOOM! EXPLOSIONS MARK THE FIRST WEEK OF ARMENIA'S PARLIAMENTARY CAMPAIGN REF: A) YEREVAN 356 B) YEREVAN 412 C) YEREVAN 417 YEREVAN 00000443 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Early in the morning on April 12, two bombs exploded in close succession at Prosperous Armenia offices in Yerevan's Avan and Kanaker neighborhoods. President Kocharian's office quickly condemned the bombings, which caused physical damage but no injuries, and Yerevan police are investigating the incidents. The explosions took observers, both within government and the NGO community, by surprise. While it is not yet clear who was behind the bombings, growing tension between the ruling Republican Party and Prosperous Armenia and the need for the Republicans to consolidate their position following the death of former Prime Minister and Republican Party Chairman Andranik Margarian (refs A and B),have led some to speculate that there might be fissures within the Republican party itself and that tension between the Republicans and Prosperous Armenian might run deeper than we thought. END SUMMARY. -------------- PA OFFICES BOMBED ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF YEREVAN -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Early in the morning on April 12, two bombs exploded in close succession at Prosperous Armenia offices in Yerevan's Avan and Kanaker neighborhoods. By midday April 12, President Kocharian's spokesman Viktor Soghomonian made the following statement: "Strongly condemning the given crime, we consider it an effort to destabilize the situation and to establish an atmosphere of intolerance on the eve of the parliamentary election. The manifestations of extremism cannot hinder the determination to hold democratic elections in Armenia." Ararat Mahtesian, First Deputy Minister of Police, told us that he believed the bombs were "intended to intimidate." He said there were no injuries and the offices were not destroyed. The bombs did, however, shatter windows and cause other surface damage. Local press reports show that nearby properties at one of the locations were also damaged and the owner of the shop containing the PA office in Avan estimated more than USD 25,000 in damage to his property. Mahtesian said both incidents were currently under investigation by the Yerevan police. ¶3. (SBU) Head of the National Assembly Republican faction Galust Sahakian, also reacted quickly to the explosions, telling reporters that the incidents were "unacceptable." In an effort to stay rumors that the Republican Party was involved, he said, "I repeat again that the members of the RPA have at least friendly relations with most members of PA." -------------- FISTICUFFS IN EREBUNI -------------- ¶4. (SBU) While it is not yet clear who was behind the bombings, there has been growing tension between the ruling Republican Party (RPA) and Prosperous Armenia (PA),at least on the local level. In mid-March, local media reported on a violent clash between RPA and PA activists in Erebuni, a blue-collar district of Yerevan. The supporters of infamous Erebuni Mayor Republican Mher Sedrakyan attacked the head of the local PA chapter, Harutyun Karapoghosyan, after he refused to stop campaigning in the area. The altercation turned into a larger confrontation which only ended when police intervened. Local media reported that President Kocharian himself called an emergency meeting of the RPA and PA heads to prevent further escalation of the dispute. -------------- BOWING TO PRESSURE IN ARMAVIR -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Tensions between RPA and PA were also evident during the March 25 mayoral election in Armavir. The election, which pitted incumbent Republican Ruben Khlghatyan against PA's Arayik Aghababyan, was marred by allegations of fraud. Aghababyan also complained that Khlghatyan used state administrative resources and his influence as the incumbent to pressure voters to support him. Following very active campaigning by both parties and unusually high turnout, 53 percent of voters supported the incumbent Republican and 43.3 percent supported PA. YEREVAN 00000443 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) Aghababyan refused to concede and challenged the results in the first instance court, but did not file a formal complaint with the local electoral commission. He refused to detail the alleged irregularities, telling journalists, "We will publicize everything in court." On April 3, Aghababyan suddenly dropped the case. PA's spokesperson told us that this was the candidate's decision. Local press speculated, however, that Aghababyan had been "ordered" by PA Chairman Gagik Tsarukian to withdraw his claim. We later learned that Aghababyan was forced to drop the case when each of the 67 voters accused of selling their votes appeared in court and testified that they did not. -------------- DEALS IN GORIS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The controversial Karabakh war general Samvel Babayan from the Dashink Party also recently bowed out of the majoritarian race in Goris. He had announced plans to challenge Republican candidate Alexander Sargsian (brother of recently-appointed Prime Minister Serzh Sargsian, head of the Republican Party). Given its high profile, local observers were paying particularly close attention to this race, when, on March 27, Babayan suddenly dropped out in favor of a third party candidate. Some local observers claimed that elections authorities had threatened not to register Babayan as a proportional candidate if he remained in Goris' majoritarian race. Others believe Babayan cut a deal with the Republicans, agreeing to leave the race if his Dashink party was guaranteed a certain number of proportional seats in the new Parliament. -------------- MISUSE OF "ADMINISTRATIVE RESOURCES" -------------- ¶8. (C) While Babayan did not comment on the reason for his withdrawal, Dashink Board Member Gnel Ghelachyan said Babayan withdrew because the Republican candidate's heavy reliance on his "administrative resources" meant that the race would not be fair. Ghelachyan's comments echoed those we have heard from various parties throughout the country during our pre-election travels. In Lori, Armavir, Shirak, Ararat and Syunik marzes, PA representatives and others have complained that the Republican leadership is using its influence to pressure voters. Opposition political groups report that local government employees, including school teachers and hospital workers, are under pressure to vote Republican. In Kajaran, PA representatives told us that the Republican director of the local copper mine was threatening to fire employees who joined PA or frequented a local coffee shop owned by a PA supporter. -------------- COMMENT: REPUBLICAN FACTIONS? -------------- ¶9. (C) There is no clear evidence of who was responsible for the bombing of the PA offices. There has been some speculation, however, about a possible Republican Party connection. When former Prime Minister and head of the Republican Party Andranik Margarian died unexpectedly on March 25, the Republican Party lost a strong leader who helped bridge the gap between the well-established old guard and party newcomers. The new Prime Minister and Republican Party head (former Defense Minister) Serzh Sargsian may be having a more difficult time bringing these two groups together. Conspiracy theories abound in Armenia, and range from the plausible (Republican supporters out of control) to the ridiculous (opposition supporters trying to set off a row between the Republicans and PA). All of Armenia's senior leaders know how damaging violence could be to the political process here. GODFREY