PROSPEROUS ARMENIA PARTY CONGRESS A SUCCESS, REAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000192 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM AM SUBJECT: PROSPEROUS ARMENIA PARTY CONGRESS A SUCCESS, REAL COMPETITION COULD LEAD TO BETTER ELECTIONS REF: A) 06 YEREVAN 1264 B) 06 YEREVAN 1280 YEREVAN 00000192 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA A. F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d). -------------- SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) Prosperous Armenia (PA),the new oligarch-founded party that has taken Armenia's political scene by storm (but whose agenda is still unclear),held its long-awaited pre-election congress on February 15. The congress hall was packed, and also drew a number of sour-faced senior government officials and rival party leaders, including Prime Minister Andranik Margarian. The congress formally anointed PA founded Gagik Tsarukian as party chairman, to rapturous applause from the delegates. The congress was also notable for its slick presentation and superbly executed logistical details, in a society where that is hardly the norm. Government-run television coverage had a distinctly derisive tone -- notable since PA is presumed to have President Kocharian's behind-the-scenes backing. ¶2. (C) In endorsing both Prosperous Armenia and Armenia's Republican Party, Kocharian has taken a page from Putin's succession-management playbook. Kocharian seems content to let the two parties battle it out on more or less equal terms, with the Republicans taking advantage of their control of the airwaves and PA taking advantage of Tsarukian's very deep pockets. While the PA party congress was a success in many ways, it also showed plainly to any Armenian voters capable of noticing how little leadership the party had below Tsarukian's level. It is clear from PA's strong public SIPDIS support that the party has successfully generated its own steam. PA's populist appeal may have peaked, however, and the more the electorate finds out about the party, the weaker it may become. In any case, there is some real competition between PA and the ruling Republican Party. More than international pressure, more than our democracy programs and even more than the conditionality of our MCC funding, this rivalry is the single factor most likely to deliver a better election. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. ¶3. (SBU) The front row of the hall was reserved for a number of non-PA political heavyweights who have been critical of the party's campaign techniques. In addition to the Prime Minister, Presidential Chief of Staff Armen Gevorgian, Republican Party parliamentary faction head Galust Sahakian and two members of the governing Buro of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF/Dashnaktsutyun) -- Hrant Margarian and Armen Rustamian -- attended the opening ceremony. United Labor Party Chairman Gurgen Arsenian and Christian Democratic Party Chairman Khosrov Harutyunyan also attended. The VIPs were exclusively members of competing political forces; PA's ranks, unlike those of the Republican Party during its summer 2006 congress, were devoid of black leather jackets and notorious faces. -------------- PARTIES TAKE SHOTS AT PA -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In his welcoming speech, ARF's Rustamian somewhat condescendingly differentiated the still wet-behind-the-ears PA from more established parties. He suggested that party building was a tough job, and that at some point PA members would need to muster the courage to enter the "real" political field. Rustamian said that PA would not be able to focus solely on caring for social and economic needs of the population, but would have to face real problems, such as society's disappointment with the current political situation. Rustamian also noted that elections would be a test balloon for the party's ability to behave honorably and fairly in the upcoming "free and fair" election. The implication was that the PA leadership had bribed voters with its philanthropic and social assistance programs (such as distribution of packets of seeds and bags of potatoes), rather than taking tough political stands. ¶5. (SBU) Former PM Harutyunyan from the marginal Christian Democratic Party followed Rustamian's lead in his speech, saying that the overwhelming public support for PA was an "advance" that the party would have to pay back through real political work. -------------- TSARUKIAN PRESENTS PA'S PLATFORM SIPDIS -------------- YEREVAN 00000192 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) Party founder Tsarukian rose to a spontaneous standing ovation that lasted several minutes. Not a natural politician, the oligarch did not look up at the audience once while reading his speech at a mile a minute. He said he knew society had high expectations of PA and that the party would rise to the challenge. He noted that not many people believed that a serious party could be established so quickly, but that PA had swiftly become a solid contender with the support of hundreds of thousands of Armenians. Tsarukian listed the party's priorities: development and SIPDIS support of small and medium-sized businesses, the development of the agricultural sector and villages, pension reform, job creation, and the development of the education and health systems. His stated foreign policy objectives included resolution of the "genocide" issue, European integration, the deepening of relations with current partners, and a focus on the diaspora. Unsurprisingly, Tsarukian was unanimously elected party chairman. ¶7. (SBU) PA board member and Deputy Minister of Transport and Communication Vardan Vardanian said the party would not form blocs. He said PA was committed to free and fair elections. "We do not need other's vote. But we will fight for every vote and protect every vote we already have," Vardanian said. He also said that the party leadership had not expected the amount of difficulty it had encountered in its establishment and operation. In his one barb directed at PA's detractors, he noted, "Armenians are not cheap and unsophisticated. They will not sell their votes for seeds and wheat." -------------- NEGATIVE MEDIA COVERAGE -------------- ¶8. (SBU) All media outlets covered the event, but the tone of their reports was surprisingly unsupportive. Though television commentators recognized that the event was well attended and well organized, stations pointed out that Tsarukian himself did not attend the press conference. SIPDIS Aravot newspaper portrayed Tsarukian as a temporary hero, saying it was only a matter of time before the public realized he would not be able to bring real change. GODFREY