TER-PETROSYAN READY TO RESIGN IN THREE YEARS IF ELECTED

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001364 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL AM SUBJECT: TER-PETROSYAN READY TO RESIGN IN THREE YEARS IF ELECTED PRESIDENT YEREVAN 00001364 001.2 OF 002 REF: (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan (LTP),who is emerging as PM Serzh Sargsyan's primary rival for the February 2008 presidential polls, drew thousands of supporters to downtown Yerevan November 16 for a second rally. LTP apologized to the people for past mistakes of his former administration. He called for the unification of the opposition around him, promising in that case to step down from the Presidency in just three years. LTP also addressed the West to press the authorities to take key anti-fraud measures ahead of the upcoming elections. END SUMMARY -------------- THE LONG AWAITED APOLOGY -------------- ¶2. (SBU) LTP in his speech offered words of apology, as both opponents and some supporters had demanded, for the mistakes of his earlier administration. These mainly referred to the "cold and dark years" at the time of the energy crises in Armenia in early 90s. Providing his explanations for the energy crises - that it was mainly due to the N-K conflict - he apologized for the sufferings that Armenian people had to endure in the name of N-K. Even more, however, LTP said he was sorry for bringing upon Armenian people "the disasters" of Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, asking the people now to help him to get rid of them. (COMMENT: To American ears, these apologies sound like no real apology at all. He's "sorry" that the exigencies of Armenia's war -- not his fault, of course, and all in the sacred Armenian cause -- created economic hardship, and he's sorry for having appointed to cabinet jobs his now-bitter political enemies, Kocharian and Sargsyan, who then ousted LTP from power in 1998. However, early indications are that at least some Armenians are taking them as actual apologies and a sign of humility. END COMMENT) -------------- THREE YEARS ENOUGH TO CLEAN THE BARNS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The highlight of LTP's speech was his promise to resign in three years if elected president and to leave the political arena for good. According to him three years will be enough "to clean the barns" and then allow the people to choose a new president in absolutely free and fair elections. Nonetheless, he set a condition 
for this, which is the support of other opposition forces and candidates of his candidacy in the presidential race. He specifically called upon Vazgen Manukyan (National Democratic Union),Raffi Hovhannisyan (Heritage),Artur Baghdasaryan (Rule of Law),Hrant Margarian (Dashnaktsutyun) and Artashes Geghamyan (National Unity). Geghamyan, whose party suffered a fiasco at the parliamentary elections, and who is widely perceived as one of the so-called "phony" oppositionists, has already rejected the invitation. The others have yet to respond. -------------- SUPPORT BEYOND ANM -------------- ¶4. (SBU) While there are no reliable estimates on the size of the rally, local observers believe the crowd was larger and more active than at the previous rally held on October 26 (reftel). Leaders of about a dozen other mostly small opposition parties warmed up the crowd before LTP's speech, making statements in support of his candidacy, as well as condemning the recent violation of human rights and restrictions on free media. Stepan Demirchian was among the speakers; his People's Party made a decision last week to support LTP's candidacy. Pro-LTP oligarch Khachatur Sukiasian, who has lately been the target of government investigations, also addressed the crowd, calling on other businessmen to join, and expressed his pride to be standing next to Armenia's first president. -------------- KEY ANTI-FRAUD MEASURES -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In his speech, Ter-Petrosian disagreed with the relatively positive assessment of the May Parliamentary elections by the international community, and urged the West to push the authorities in ensuring some important anti-fraud measures. He emphasized the necessity to print the ballots abroad to ensure that there are no extra ballots, and inking of voters to exclude the possibility of multiple voting. YEREVAN 00001364 002.2 OF 002 -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Whether he has a chance or not, over the past two months LTP has clearly emerged as the main rival to PM Serzh Sargsyan's bid in the presidential race. His promise to step down after three years looks like another canny move, in LTP's so far well-played political strategy: It's a clear carrot dangled in front of LTP's would-be rivals in the opposition, aimed at making them see their self-interest in jumping on board with LTP now, in hopes of becoming the designated successor in short order. This may be particularly tempting for Raffi Hovhanissian, who polls show is among the most popular politicians in Armenia, but who just barely lacks the ten years' citizenship to qualify to run for president this cycle. PENNINGTON