IRANIAN PRESIDENT'S VISIT LOW-KEY, BUSINESS-LIKE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001274 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2017 TAGS: PREL PARM ETRD EINV ENRG KNNP IR AM SUBJECT: IRANIAN PRESIDENT'S VISIT LOW-KEY, BUSINESS-LIKE, AND ENDED EARLY YEREVAN 00001274 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA R.V. Perina, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: CDA called on FM Oskanian for an immediate readout of President Ahmadinejad's visit. Oskanian said that the Iranian delegation's early departure (a fact which dominated local media coverage) was at the Iranian side's request, and that only vague explanations were offered of urgent business back in Tehran. Oskanian noted he in fact left just one hour earlier than scheduled. Oskanian said Ahmadinejad had affirmed Iran's determination to develop nuclear technology, but suggested the international community could verify peaceful application. Kocharian had probed Ahmadinejad about the risk of military conflict; the Iranian president confidently assured there would be no conflict. He said that "smart people on both sides" would ensure that did not happen. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) IRANIAN PRESIDENT MAKES OFFICIAL VISIT: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad arrived late afternoon October 22 for his two-day visit in Armenia, departing at around noon the 23rd. Ahmadinejad met with President Kocharian (accompanied by FM Oskanian),and National Assembly Speaker Tigran Torossian, and met with a group of Iranian students at Yerevan State University. Prime Minister Serzh Sargsian was unavilable to meet Ahmadinejad, as Sargsian remains in Washington, DC. Local media report that the Iranian delegation signed several memoranda of understanding with their Armenian hosts: one to open consulates in each other's countries, one on central bank cooperation, one on joint investments (no further information),and one on developing wind power in Armenia. The two presidents reportedly issued a joint statement, the text of which had not yet been published and remained unavailable as of COB in Yerevan. Public comments from the two presidents, as reported so far, focused heavily on economic cooperation initiatives, especially on energy and transportation infrastructure. ¶3. (U) ...BUT GOES HOME EARLY: Local media also report that President Ahmadinejad and his delegation departed Yerevan early, citing vague "events" back home in Iran. Reportedly, the Iranian president cancelled his address to the National Assembly, a visit to the Armenian Genocide Museum and Monument, a visit to Yerevan's sole mosque, which receives substantial Iranian goverment support, and a meeting with Iranian citizens living in Armenia. ¶4. (C) FM OSKANIAN OFFERS A READOUT: Oskanian said that the visit had gone much as expected. The two sides had discussed a broad range of issues: the yet-incomplete gas pipeline, a high voltage power line, hydropower plants along the mutual border, a proposed railroad link between the two countries, and the proposed oil refinery just inside Armenia near the Iranian border. Oskanian said that the Iranian side raised questions about progress on the third high-voltage power line slated to connect Iran and Armenia. The new line is necessary for Armenia to fulfull its part of the energy swap deal, as it is to pay back Iran for the value of the gas with increased electricity exports south. Oskanian said the MOU on consulates reported in the press was in fact just one-way. Armenia would open a consulate in Tabriz -- Iran had agreed to this long-standing Armenian request -- but Iran had no plans to open a new consulate in Armenia. The Tabriz consulate would be useful to serve the Armenian population there, as well as because, Oskanian said, the vast bulk of Iranian trade with Armenia goes through Tabriz en route north. Oskanian said that the refinery and railroad ideas are long-term projects, and implied those plans remain broad-brush and lacking in details. ¶5. (C) NUKES, WAR, AND PEACE: Oskanian reported that Kocharian had questioned Ahmadinejad about Iran's nuclear program. Kocharian had said "You know, people ask me about this all the time, since Armenia borders Iran, and these qeustions will keep coming even after I am gone (from the presidency)." Ahmadinejad had replied firmly with what Oskanian called the Iranian "party line," that Iran was determined to develop peaceful nuclear technology and no one could deny Iran that right. Oskanian said Iran was "not going to budge" on this point. Oskanian thought he detected a "different accent" this time in the Iranian reply, when Ahmadinejad suggested that if the international community were so concerned with ensuring that there were no weapons element to Iran's nuclear program, than let the international community be directly involved in the program, invest in its development, and thereby both help and satisfy itself of Iran's innocent intent. Kocharian had several times asked Ahmadinejad his views of the risk of military conflict over the Iranian nuclear program. Ahmadinejad had been categorical in dismissing this concern, finally offering YEREVAN 00001274 002.2 OF 002 "Don't worry. Rest assured that there are smart people on both sides who won't let it come to that." ¶6. (C) WHY THE QUICK EXIT?: Noting that local media were all abuzz that the Iranian delegation had cut short the Yerevan stay, CDA asked Oskanian why the early departure. Oskanian said that it had simply been an Iranian request, and they had not been specific, simply citing urgent matters in Tehran. He commented that Ahmadinejad had actually only left about one hour earlier than planned. He had been schedule to leave at 1:00 pm, had requested to leave at 11:00 am, and in fact had left at about noon. Oskanian confirmed, however, that the Iranian president had cancelled a scheduled address to the Armenian National Assembly, and visits to the Armenian Genocide Memorial and the mosque. Parliament speaker Tigran Torossyan had been hastily added to the breakfast meeting with Ahmadinejad to make up for the lack of a parliamentary meeting. Local media remarked negatively on the precipitious departure, and on Ahmadinejad's failure to stop at the genocide museum, as the museum director hastened to comment that he saw no political message in the cancellation. The Armenian presidential press service's initial statement did little to soften the news, in fact exagerated the situation by saying "We have learned that the Iranian president had cancelled all his programs today because he plans to return home ahead of time" and going on to cite "unexpected developments in Iran." ¶7. (C) NEW ROAD: CDA asked about press reports that President Kocharian would inaugurate October 26 a new highway linking Armenia with Iran. Oskanian understood that was indeed the plan, but downplayed the Iran significance. He said the road was in fact intended simply to better link Yerevan with its southern province, as far as the border town of Meghri, but this was a domestic Armenian priority. He pointed out that the existing road reaches 3000 meters altitude, and was susceptible to frequent winter closures, while the new road would be no higher than 1500 meters. Oskanian was unsure if there was Iranian investment or participation in the highway project. (NOTE: In Soviet times, the main highway connecting Yerevan with the far south of Armenia ran through the flatlands of Nakhichevan, which as part of Azerbaijan is now inaccessible to Armenians. Thus, what was once only about a three-hour trip on a broad highway, has since the Soviet break-up and NK war become an eight-hour endurance trek by winding, mountainous secondary roads. We have been unable to confirm Iranian investment in the new highway project; it seems to be under construction with Armenian government funds. END NOTE) Kocharian himself, however, publicly refered to the road as a new Iran-Armenia highway, which he lauded as an opportunity to increase truck trade between the two sides. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: This visit had a workmanlike quality, with public commentary focusing on the infrastructure cooperation projects the two sides hoped to complete. Ahmadinejad's public appearances were more limited than planned, and the public perception that the Iranians had left abruptly dominated media discourse and largely dissipated any "feel good" mood that might have arisen in the public mind. Sweeping rhetoric of friendship and partnership seemed in rather short supply, while President Kocharian's public remarks, in particular, focused heavily on infrastructure projects already well-known to the Armenian public. We saw nothing new mentioned by way of significant cooperation initiatives. PERINA