A DEEPLY SKEPTICAL KOCHARIAN AGREES TO HEAR OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 001247

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2017
TAGS: PREL TK AM
SUBJECT: A DEEPLY SKEPTICAL KOCHARIAN AGREES TO HEAR OUT
ANY CONCRETE TURKISH PROPOSAL

Classified By: CDA R.V. Perina, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Kocharian made clear to CDA his
profound disbelief in Turkey's sincerity on rapprochement,
but grudgingly agreed to hear out any Turkish proposal.
Kocharian complained at length about past bad faith from
Turkey, and said he considers talking with Turkey a lost
cause for at least another generation. Meanwhile, he said
Armenia would make its own way as best it can. The president
has just four months left to his term, and we find him
increasingly irascible on things he does not want to do. END
SUMMARY


2. (C) During the course of a previously-scheduled meeting on
another subject, CDA spoke with President Kocharian October
16 to persuade him that there may be a unique, short-term
opportunity for Armenia fundamentally to change the dynamic
of Armenia's relations with Turkey. He said that the
pressures created by the Armenian "genocide" resolution
(AGR),combined with the new, more liberal and flexible
presidency of Abdullah Gul, to create an opportunity that has
not existed before to try to improve the relationship with
Turkey and de-link the Turkish border issue from the
Nagorno-Karabkh dispute. He said that this opportunity would
have to be seized in a package agreement before an AGR could
be passed, because that would slam the door closed for a
generation.


3. (C) Kocharian conveyed profound skepticism of Turkey's
good faith. He said that Armenia has heard such messages
from U.S. Administrations since independence, but no
discussions with Turkey had ever amounted to anything real
for Armenia. He said he did not doubt American intentions,
but that many times in the past, Turkey has made much of a
"new process" toward reconciliation. Each time, he argued,
Armenia had gone along, only to find that the Turkish
proprosal had proved empty. Armenia has "not one concrete
thing to show" for its years of off and on negotiations with
Turkey. Kocharian said "You think this is the last
opportunity for a generation. I believe there is no
opportunity at all for at least a generation. Turkey is not
ready, even at the level of society, to reach out to
Armenia." The proof of this, Kocharian said, is that Turkey
is spending so much money to build the railroad to Azerbaijan
via Akhalkalaki, bypassing Armenia. There would be no point
if Turkey were serious about opening the border with Armenia,
which it could do any time it wished. Dismissing signs of
change in Turkey, Kocharian cited PM Erdogan's reported
comment last week that the border with Armenia will remain
closed until N-K is resolved.


4. (C) At one point Kocharian said he was so disillusioned by
years of Turkish bad faith that he really "did not give a
damn anymore" about Turkey. Kocharian said that Armenia has
had to accept the reality that its Turkish border will be
closed for the forseeable future. Even so, he said, Armenia
is managing to thrive, citing the country's double-digit
economic growth of recent years to bolster his point.
Armenia has had to turn to Iran for transit access to the
wider world, and Iran has proved a much easier partner to
deal with.


5. (C) Kocharian at first refused even to countenance the
possibility of more GOAM meetings with Turkey, commenting
that the tiniest steps by Armenia to meet Turkey halfway are
instantly proclaimed by Turkey (and even by the U.S.),as
evidence of a "process of rapprochement" that must not be
disrupted. Kocharian said he was unwilling to be used by the
Turks in this way again. After considerable prodding from
the CDA, Kocharian agreed that he would not rule out opening
quiet negotiations with Turkey, so long as these were kept
out of the public eye, and did not become part of the
campaign to derail an AGR.


6. (C) COMMENT: Kocharian will not be persuaded to talk
seriously with the GOT unless the opening bid comes from
Ankara and involves a concrete incentive for Armenia, such as
a near-term commitment to crack open the border, at least by
opening the railroad line. A historical commission is viewed
as a Turkish ploy to take the "genocide" off the table and
would be accepted by the Armenians only as part of a larger
package. Armenians profoundly mistrust Turkey's intentions,
and hint they are skeptical about U.S. motives as well. With
just four months left in his term, Kocharian's irascible
tendencies have only deepened, and he has less patience than
ever for what he is convinced would be empty discussions.
Kocharian in the end did not rule out a dialogue, but it is
clearly up to the Turkish side to convince him that it would
not be just another ploy to kill the AGR.
PERINA