DAS BRYZA DISCUSSES ELECTIONS WITH NGOS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000114 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR DRL - A/S LOWENKRON, EUR/CARC, EUR/SNEC E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM AM SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA DISCUSSES ELECTIONS WITH NGOS, OPPOSITION LEADERS YEREVAN 00000114 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Visiting EUR DAS Bryza received two previews of the upcoming parliamentary elections on January 26. Opposition leaders predicted that the May elections would be the worst yet in Armenia's post-Soviet history, and complained that U.S. and European leaders had done too little to push for democracy in Armenia. Although they agreed that the elections would probably fall short of international standards and questioned the GOAM's political will for reaching those standards, our democracy program NGOs were slightly less pessimistic as they anticipated "solid, baby steps" forward in comparison with previous polls. END SUMMARY. -------------- - DEMOCRACY IMPLEMENTERS EXPECT INCREMENTAL GAINS -------------- - ¶2. (C) On the margins of a Minsk Group Co-Chair visit, EUR DAS Bryza held separate roundtables (in his bilateral capacity) with representatives from USAID-funded democracy implementing organizations and with political opposition leaders. In the implementers' roundtable, representatives agreed that the upcoming election would most probably fall far short of international standards. They agreed, however, that the revised Electoral Code provided a good framework that could in principle be the basis for well-conducted elections, provided the government delivered the political will to implement the procedures properly and in good faith. The new provisions represent a mixed bag of some clear "wins" combined with more ambiguous elements, depending on implementation. For example, the GOAM included, at the unfortunate suggestion of the Venice Commission, mobile ballot boxes for the infirm (which adds vulnerabilities to possible ballot box stuffing). The new code, however, limits the mobile boxes, use to specific hospitals to limit fraud opportunities. The new code is explicit in allowing political party proxies and other observers to be physically close enough to the polling place, voters list check, and vote counting processes to be able to verify that voters are admitted and votes are tallied honestly. Implementers told DAS Bryza that new safeguards to prevent multiple-voting by military personnel seem good, but are somewhat incomplete. (Septel will provide a comprehensive picture of the revised Electoral Code). ¶3. (C) The NGO reps shared the view that, while their working level GOAM partners often showed real commitment to the electoral procedure reforms, commitment seemed less strong at higher levels of government. IFES head Ched Flego noted that one advance benchmark of free and fair elections would be whether most or all seats were contested by multiple parties or candidates, or if anti-government candidates began to drop out (under pressure) as election day drew near. While Flego reported on his team's work with the GOAM to help clean up the voters list and to train election workers on new electoral procedures (septel),he mentioned that his team had found some 470,000 names on the register of Armenians who no longer live in the country, but whom the authorities have no legal basis for removing from the list. He cautioned that parties such as the ruling Republicans are aware of this discrepancy and may be prone to use it to their advantage through ballot stuffing in some areas. Counterpart International chief Alex Sardar described the work his organization is doing to bolster civil society and to raise awareness for the elections. Local NGO "It's Your Choice" (IYC) chair Harutyun Hambardzumyan told of his group's preparations to observe the elections in every polling place in the country, and to train their own volunteers and local officials and observers in the new Electoral Code. -------------- OPPOSITION LEADERS PREDICT GLOOM AND DOOM -------------- ¶4. (C) The political opposition leaders were decidedly less optimistic. National Democratic Union Chairman Vazgen Manukyan (a former prime minister),Orinats Yerkir representative Mher Shahgeldyan, David Shahnazaryan of the Armenian National Movement (and a former national security minister),and Artak Zeynalyan of the Republic Party spent a large portion of their roundtable complaining about the Electoral Code, which they said was riddled with large YEREVAN 00000114 002.2 OF 002 loopholes through which fraud could pass unfettered. The politicians also expressed their concern about election commissions rife with corrupt officials and the opposition's difficulty in obtaining equal access to media, in comparison with pro-government parties. They blamed the situation on a lack of separation of powers and political will. Manukyan argued that the perception that Armenia's opposition is weak is unjust. He said the political conditions do not allow for the development of parties, which find themselves in a Catch-22: unable to strengthen themselves by recruiting members, because the public refuses to join parties they see as ineffectual. The opposition leaders also suggested that the United States did not take the ruling powers to task as much as it should. Manukyan asked that the United States bring as many observers as possible to watch the upcoming elections, and to hold the GOAM accountable for fraud afterwards. ¶5. (C) DAS Bryza expressed hope that the parliamentary elections would "reflect the dignity of the Armenian people." He assured the politicians that democracy was at the top of the U.S. agenda in Armenia, but noted that it had to share the spotlight with the goals of regional stability and economic development. "We have to pursue them all at the same time," he said, noting that democracy was a vital part of the package that laid a strong foundation to achieve the other goals. He also said the USG would continue to impress upon the government the fact that violence destroys the perpetrator's legitimacy. DAS Bryza also pointed out, without using the defense minister's name, that CDA had stressed to DefMin Serzh Sargsian (who also holds a senior Republican Party post) at a dinner January 25 the importance of free media. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) DAS Bryza's visit was timely, as it provided a pep talk for NGOs working on our Democracy Promotion Strategy. They are doing important work in a tough environment. The meeting with the opposition was more discouraging. With four months to go before elections, the opposition is still splintered and unable to agree on a policy agenda other than, "Vote for us, not for them." ¶7. (U) DAS Bryza has cleared on this cable. GODFREY