UPDATE ON AFRICAN SWINE FEVER OUTBREAK IN ARMENIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001120 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR EAID SENV TBIO KFLU AM SUBJECT: UPDATE ON AFRICAN SWINE FEVER OUTBREAK IN ARMENIA (09/05/07) REF: YEREVAN 1107 AND PREVIOUS -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U). On September 6, the GOAM finally approved a program to combat African Swine Fever (ASF) and announced creation of a ministerial-level interagency task force to oversee the effort. Some 1,800 animals have been slaughtered to date, and affected areas quarantined. Although the economic impact resulting from the loss of animals and closure of borders to Armenian exports remains unclear, the GOAM has instructed the Ministry of Finance and Economy to calculate the damage caused to farmers in order to compensate them for their losses. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) At a press briefing on September 6, Grisha Baghyan, Head of the State Food Safety and Veterinary Inspectorate, announced the formation of a high-level ad-hoc commission to lead the GOAM campaign against ASF. This group will include the Deputy Prime Minister, the Ministers of Agriculture, Health, Finance and Nature Protection, as well as the heads of Police, Emergency Management Administration and Rescue Service. Baghyan indicated that similar commissions will be created at the regional level throughout the country, and three types of working groups will be created in the field which will be responsible for: 1) identification of infected animals; 2) slaughter of the infected animals and disposal of their carcasses; 3) a sanitary and decontamination campaign. ¶3. (SBU) Although this is being called a new group, there has in fact been a GOAM task force in effect since the ASF outbreak became public knowledge in Armenia last month. It has been led by Minister of Agriculture David Lokian, with Deputy Minister Ruhkhyan heading operations in the field in cooperation with the Chief Veterinary Officer and the head of the Central Veterinary Laboratory. Each region has had a lead responder with authority from Minister Lokyan to stop and search all persons and vehicles -- even military ones. The District task force leaders from the Ministry of Agriculture have been supported by the Veterinary Inspectors Service, Armenian CDC, firefighters, the National Security Service and the Police. ¶4. (U) According to Baghyan, there are now seven areas of infection registered in the Tavush and Lori regions bordering with Georgia, and these regions are under quarantine. To date, 1,800 pigs have been slaughtered. The risk zone covers Armenian regions bordering Georgia, where, according to the latest data, the number of dead pigs has exceeded 21,000. ¶5. (SBU) While the GOAM has set up checkpoints in the affected regions, they appear to be lacking required rigorousness. They range from having cars driving through disinfectant pools without stopping, to full stops with a search of the vehicles, which can be lax or thorough depending on the location or the inspector. (NOTE: Post has been told that when authority figures are not around, a small bribe gets a vehicle through without inspection. Also, farmers are apparently sneaking pork (from pigs that should have been slaughtered and destroyed, or at least kept in quarantine) around the country at night and selling it. END NOTE.) ASF ALSO FOUND IN YEREVAN -------------- ¶6. (U) While ASF has been found primarily in the north, press reports also indicate that 50 cases have been registered at a local farm in Yerevan. Earlier, 15 infected pigs at this farm had been slaughtered, and an additional 35 have now been identified on the same farm (and will presumably be slaughtered, if they haven't been already). Specialists say the animals were infected through contaminated fodder. -------------- COMPENSATION PLAN IN THE WORKS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) For the first time, there has been discussion by the GOAM of compensating owners for the loss of their animals (with funds likely coming from the World Bank). According to Baghyan, the action plan envisages compensation payment for each slaughtered animal, although the amount of compensation and a timeline for payment has not yet been determined. This may prove to be a considerable challenge, in part because the pig population is generally believed to be twice the official count, as owners underreport their numbers to minimize their tax liabilities. Compensating for actual losses will be difficult to reconcile with official counts. ¶8. (SBU) It is too early to determine the potential economic impact YEREVAN 00001120 002 OF 002 should borders with Russia and Georgia remain closed to Armenian meat and milk products -- and potentially even to fruits and vegetables - for an extended period. At present, borders are expected to be closed for three months. Accurate data may be difficult to obtain, as it is not clear how reliably the GOAM tracks these exports. In addition, just as the reported pig population is perhaps half the actual number, the same is likely true for cows, cheese, poultry and eggs. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (SBU) While we are pleased that the GOAM has announced creation of this commission, it is not clear how effective it will be. In the best case, this announcement indicates that the GOAM has at last given ASF the high-level attention it deserves, and will improve coordination and operational effectiveness of the GOAM's thus-far rag-tag efforts. Plans for compensation are a positive step, given the potential financial losses to some of the country's poorest citizens, and because this might increase incentives for pig owners to cooperate with virus eradication efforts. However, given the levels of official corruption and the presumed under-reporting of the pig and other animal populations, there is a significant possibility that any compensation program will be plagued by significant fraud. END COMMENT. PERINA