TOUCHING ALL THE BASES: DAS BRYZA'S MEETINGS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001032

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AM TU
SUBJECT: TOUCHING ALL THE BASES: DAS BRYZA'S MEETINGS WITH
PARLIAMENT, OPPOSITION, AND ENERGY EXPERTS


YEREVAN 00001032 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA R.V. Perina, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Bryza's opposition party meetings pointed
up the sharp contrast between the two, with Heritage on the
upswing, and Orinats Yerkir seeming like a spent force.
The parliament speaker, typically, delivered a windy oration
of
questionable relevance on Armenia's constitution. Bryza
also discussed energy security with a small group of experts.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) PARLIAMENT SPEAKER: DAS Bryza called on National
Assembly Chairman Tigran Torossian, who treated him to a
typical Torossian elocution: many words of little
content. This meeting was useful primarily for the
public diplomacy value of being seen paying due courtesies
to Armenia's nominally second-ranking public official and
to the legislative branch. Torossian thanked Bryza for his
warm words on significant improvements in the conduct of
recent
parliamentary elections, and pledged his own work to make
electoral improvements. He reviewed changes from
the 2005 constitutional amendments (many of which become
effective only with the 2008 presidential election),such
as the diminished powers of the president in relation to the
cabinet and parliament, and increased independence and
powers of the prime minister and judiciary. He pointed out,
for example, that the president would no longer have the
power
to hire and fire prime ministers or to dissolve parliament
at whim. Torossian fretted (crocodile tears, in our view)
that the opposition is too weak and disunited to be
effective,and this was a constraint on Armenia's democratic
development. Torossian welcomed U.S. assistance to improve
the training and competencies of legislators and staffers
in parliament.


3. (C) THE UP AND COMING OPPOSITION: DAS Bryza also met
with Heritage Party leader Raffi Hovhanissian. Though he
mentioned his belief that votes had been stolen from his
party during the National Assembly election, Hovhanissian
said he and his party had decided not to get bogged down in
recriminations and protests, but simply to move forward
with the resources they had available and keep momentum
going for the future. Hovhanissian projected confidence
as he spoke with pride about Heritage's role in stalling
the anti-Radio Liberty legislation introduced into the
extraordinary session of parliament in July, viewing it as
a useful demonstration that even a small parliamentary
faction could, if diligent, bring a public spotlight to the
legislative chamber and play a constructive role. He spoke
of his race for the majoritarian (single-member district)
seat being re-run August 26, which would add one seat to
his existing seven-seat faction. Hovhanissian said he was
still weighing whether to make a run for the presidency in
2008, noting the constitutional complication that the GOAM
had not officially granted him Armenian citizenship until

2000. (NOTE: Ten years of Armenian citizenship is a legal
pre-requisite for the presidency. END NOTE.) He added that
the courts had heretofore deferred to the president on
citizenship questions, but there is a chance that either
the president or Constitutional Court could acknowledge his
much earlier qualification for citizenship.


4. (C) STATESMANLIKE POSE: In sharp contrast to most
oppositionists meeting U.S. officials, Hovhanissian wanted
to talk not just about party politics, but also about a
wide range of foreign policy issues. He highlighted Turkey
(as noted above),and commented that the most important
ingredient to success in negotiations with either Turkey or
Azerbaijan would be to have a president and a government
with unquestionable democratic legitimacy, which he felt no
Armenian government has had since the early years of
President Levon Ter-Petrossian. He felt that Armenian
leaders with real popular legitimacy would have much
greater standing to negotiate tough issues, including
staking out a more independent position from Russia.
Hovhanissian thought Armenia should naturally align with
the Euro-Atlantic community, and break the "vertical power"
of the Russia-Armenia relationship. He felt that Russia
had already been given far too many Armenian assets, and that
this would be a burden on future governments for years to
come.


5. (C) THE FADING OPPOSITION: Armenia's other
parliamentary opposition party leader, former Parliamentary
Speaker Artur Baghdassarian of Orinats Yerkir, was much more
downbeat in his conversation with Bryza. Baghdassarian
complained

YEREVAN 00001032 002.2 OF 002


that the May elections had been much less free and fair than
the
international community suggested, and that the Armenian
people keenly felt this disconnect. He spoke of the
administrative resources that authorities had abused to
influence the election outcome, such as pressuring teachers
and public sector workers to vote for the ruling party. He
said that election integrity will be the most important
issue in the presidential election, but also noted that
socio-economic problems are the biggest substantive concern
among voters. He was pessimistic about chances for a
unified opposition presidential candidate, and said the
authorities have taken every opportunity to undermine this
possibility. That said, he had put himself forward as a
presidential candidate and hoped to attract wide opposition
support.


6. (C) EX-ORINATS YERKIR ACTIVIST SPILLS DIRT: DAS Bryza
later met separately with former Orinats Yerkir foreign
policy adviser Tigran Mkrtchian, who recently defected very
publicly from the party, along with the two leaders of OY's
youth branch. Mkrtchian claimed that Orinats Yerkir was in
significant disarray, with party cadres disaffected by
Baghdassarian's high-handedness, corruption, and
double-dealing. Party leaders were disgusted to find out
Baghdassarian had tried to negotiate a secret deal with the
government before the election, and offended by his
autocratic ways. Mkrtchian related Baghdassarian's
mendacity during spring 2007 visits to Washington and
European
capitals. For example, Baghdassarian told Bryza himself and
an NSC official that he would urge Congress not to pass an
inflammatory resolution on the Armenian "genocide," and
then immediately proceeded to whip up pro-resolution fervor
when meeting Congressman Radonovich. Most damagingly,
Mkrtchian accused Baghdassarian of having sold high places on
the OY party list to unqualified individuals of no political
standing or experience, and putting the money in his own
pocket. Meanwhile, party stalwarts such as Mkrthchian
himself were pushed far down the list to positions with no
chance of winning seats. (COMMENT: Mkrtchian's protests
to the contrary, this latter fact seems a more important
explanation for Mkrtchian's deep disaffection than the
other issues, which to be fair Mkrtchian probably finds
genuinely offensive as well. END COMMENT)


7. (C) ENERGY SECURITY: Bryza also presided over a small
energy roundtable, featuring Deputy Energy Minister Areg
Galstyan, and two energy sepcialists under USAID contract,
one Armenian and one American. The group was joined by
CDA, DCM, and Pol/Econ chief. Galstyan spoke proudly of a
newly enacted cabinet decision to support a promising new
biomass energy initiative, an area which Bryza mentioned
was garnering great interest in Washington. Discussion
turned to Armenia's more conventional energy alternatives
and the need to replace the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant's
capacity. Galstyan hoped that a new nuclear plant could be
designed and built by the Metsamor target decommissioning
date of 2016. He hoped that, with the worldwide resurgence
in nuclear power interest as a carbon-free energy source,
major international donors and the IFIs would lift current
prohibitions on financing nuclear plants. On Iran, Galstyan
described the long-planned project now underway to extend
the new Iranian-Armenian natural gas pipeline up into
Armenia's central Ararat Valley, where it can be delivered
to the primary Hrazdan thermal plant for electricity
production. The pipeline extension is due to be completed
in mid-2009. He also mentioned the seasonal electricity
barter arrangement Armenia has with Iran, which helps both
sides meet peak demand cheaply. Projects to build joint
hydropower plants and perhaps even an oil refinery
along Armenia's Iranian border remain in early stages. DAS
Bryza reiterated U.S. sanctions concerns about developing
Iranian energy infrastructure, especially if the investment
delivered Iranian energy exports to third countries.


8. (U) DAS Bryza has cleared on this cable.
PERINA