CAMEROON: ELECTION "TRENDS" SHOW A MASSIVE RULING

UNCLAS YAOUNDE 000929 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/C LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS EUCOM FOR J5-1 AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KCOR PINR EAID CM SUBJECT: CAMEROON: ELECTION "TRENDS" SHOW A MASSIVE RULING PARTY VICTORY REF: A. YAOUNDE 910 ¶B. YAOUNDE 904 ¶C. YAOUNDE 894 ¶D. YAOUNDE 741 MARKED PARAGRAPHS ARE SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED (SBU). NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE THE USG. ¶1. (U) Cameroon's Minister of Territorial Administration and Decentralization (MINATD),Hamidou Yaya Marafa, announced unofficial "trends" for the July 22 legislative and municipal elections the day after the voting. Marafa shared the Government of Cameroon's (GRC) official assessment that the elections went well and that there were no major problems to report. Marafa admitted, however, that the distribution of voter registration cards in urban areas caused trouble, but claimed the problem was resolved at the last minute. Responding to widespread complaints that the ink used to mark voters' fingers was not permanent, Marafa downplayed the problem, saying it was a security redundancy put in place by MINATD and therefore not essential to a successful election. Marafa estimated voter turnout at about 62 percent. Massive victory for the Ruling Party ==================================== ¶2. (U) Though announcing "unofficial trends," Marafa -- whose Ministry conducted the elections -- nonetheless declared victory for the ruling party, the Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM). Marafa claimed the CPDM won as many as 152 (up from 149) of the 180 seats in the National Assembly and most of the 360 council seats in the municipal elections. According to these "unofficial trends," the leading opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF), won only 14 Assembly seats. The National Union for Democracy and Progress (UNDP) (which had allied itself with the CPDM in the previous Parliament, parlaying its lone seat into a senior ministerial position) doubled its representation in the legislature to 2. Winning its first seat in Parliament, the small Progressive Movement (MP) party picked up one seat in Douala. The Democratic Union of Cameroon (UDC) lost one seat in its stronghold in the West Province, dropping from 5 to 4 seats in the next Parliament. The remaining seven seats were not yet clear enough to call. The People's Union of Cameroon (UPC),which had partnered with the ruling party in the last Parliament (and been rewarded with a senior ministerial post for UPC leader Augustin Kodock),was apparently eliminated from the National Assembly through hotly contested elections in the Center Province. ¶3. (U) According to Cameroon's electoral law, the Supreme Court, sitting as the Constitutional Council, certifies official election results for the legislative elections. Municipal council electoral commissions around the country will announce the official municipal election results. Comment: 2004 Redux =================== ¶4. (SBU) The Commonwealth's assessment of the 2004 Presidential elections noted: "We were concerned that the provisional results of the Presidential Election were announced by the Minister of State in the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralisation Mr. Marafa Hamidou Yaya on 14 October. The law clearly states that the proclamation of results is the function of the Constitutional Council. Even though the figures published by MINATD were presented as "trends" they were in fact the results of the election. This is highly irregular." Marafa's premature announcement of an overwhelming CPDM victory may well, once again, be accurate, but his disregard for good practices and international monitor recommendations is generally indicative of how these elections were managed -- i.e., to ensure a victory for President Biya's party and a continuation of CPDM dominance of Cameroonian politics. End Comment. NELSON