CAMEROON ELECTIONS: DISAPPOINTING AT FIRST BLUSH

C O N F I D E N T I A L YAOUNDE 000910 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/C, INL/C/CP AND EB LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS EUCOM FOR J5-1 AFRICA DIVISION AND POLAD YATES E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KCOR PINR EAID CM SUBJECT: CAMEROON ELECTIONS: DISAPPOINTING AT FIRST BLUSH REF: A. YAOUNDE 904 ¶B. YAOUNDE 902 ¶C. YAOUNDE 894 ¶D. YAOUNDE 741 Classified By: Acting P/E Chief Tad Brown for reasons 1.4 b and d. ¶1. (C) Summary. Cameroon on July 22 held dual legislative and municipal elections; initial, anecdotal reports indicate that President Biya's ruling party will hold onto its strong majority in the National Assembly and in municipal councils throughout much of the country. Though it is too early to make a definitive characterization of the elections, numerous reports suggest they were plagued by poor preparation, inconsistent execution, and occasions of fraud. At this time there are no credible reports of significant violence or massive, blatant malfeasance on the part of the Government of Cameroon (GRC) or the ruling party, the Cameroonian People's Democratic Movement (CPDM). Widespread allegations of fraud and mismanagement and the GRC's poor handling of the registration and pre-election processes combine to undercut the legitimacy of this democratic exercise in public opinion. But it is also possible that the final results will, nevertheless, largely represent the will of the voting public. End summary. ¶2. (C) Initial reports from the Embassy's 11 observation teams spread across all ten provinces indicate that Cameroon's July 22 parliamentary and municipal elections, although peaceful, were marred by mismanagement, voter apathy and incidents of fraud. On the other hand, most of the polling stations observed appeared to be functioning reasonably well, especially given the resource and capacity constraints. ¶3. (U) The most oft-raised problem concerned the ink, which is supposed to indelibly mark a voter's thumb, thereby making it more difficult for the individual to vote again elsewhere. Though the ink had been a problem in 2004 and the GRC had made repeated, public and private assurances that the problem had been resolved, it became immediately clear that the ink provided to polling stations could be easily wiped off. In addition, teams noted that election workers did not understand the purpose of the ink and many decided to take voters' thumbprints, for no discernible purpose. ¶4. (C) The handling of voter registration lists and voter cards was also identified as problematic in many areas. Specifically, there were allegations that the voter lists in some polling stations on July 22 were not the same voter lists that had been publicly displayed and against which voters had checked their status. Additionally, large numbers of voters claimed not to have received their voter cards. In some places the polling station commissions (composed of representatives from the GRC and the political parties contesting the election) reached ad hoc standards for determining what identification was needed to allow an individual to vote. These decisions were not regularized and were at times out of conformity with election law. Some observer teams witnessed instances of multiple or fraudulent voting. ¶5. (C) Press and anecdotal reports suggest behind-the-scenes fraud and intimidation in some areas from agents of the GRC and the ruling CPDM party. Although our observation teams witnessed few of these incidents directly, we believe they are reasonably credible and indicative of events in contested races. ¶6. (U) The leading opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF),has denounced the elections as fraudulent and promised to file lawsuits challenging the elections in court as soon as July 23. Adamou Ndam Njoya, president of the opposition party Cameroonian Democratic Union (UDC),told the Voice of America he does not believe a fair outcome is possible, given the extent of fraud involved. Comment ======= ¶7. (C) While it is still too soon for a full analysis of the elections, it is clear that fraud, intimidation and mismanagement marred the electoral process, at least in the court of public opinion. Much of what our teams observed was calm, reasonably orderly voting without controversy. But the reports of fraud we received, combined with the more widespread allegations reported in the press, raise troubling questions. ¶8. (U) We will wait to characterize the elections until more is known about the extent to which the reports of mismanagement and fraud are substantive enough to call into doubt the legitimacy of the election itself. In the coming days, we will meet with representatives from the GRC, the National Elections Observatory (ONEL),other diplomatic and observer missions, and political parties in an effort to draw comprehensive conclusions as to whether or not this election cycle represents progress for democracy in Cameroon. End comment. NELSON