OPPOSITION NATIONAL PARTY CONFERENCE RALLIES TROOPS, OFFERS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000604 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP, INR, STATE PASS TO USTR PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ETRD NZ SUBJECT: OPPOSITION NATIONAL PARTY CONFERENCE RALLIES TROOPS, OFFERS FOREIGN POLICY INSIGHTS Ref: Wellington 538 ¶1. Summary (SBU) The opposition National Party, riding high in the polls, recently held its annual conference in Auckland from August 3 - 5. The party used the conference to portray itself as a government-in-waiting and to make its case against Labour. National spokesman made it clear National foreign policy would differ little from Labour's current policy. Party leader John Key's conference address, which focused on housing and welfare, sought to showcase his prime ministerial credentials in spite of Labour accusations that he is substance-free and a lightweight. End summary. National Party bashes Labour, looks ahead to 2008 -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) The opposition National Party held its annual conference in Auckland from August 3-5, 2007. Buoyed by strong polling and a popular and capable leader in John Key (ref: Wellington 538), confident party faithful heard National MPs make their case for a change of government, promise to solve many of ills that affect New Zealand (without providing too much detail as to how) and criticize the Labour Government's management of the country. ¶3. (SBU) The conference was light on specifics; National strategists insisted it is still too early in the electoral cycle for National to be releasing policy. (Note: The next election is not scheduled until late 2008. End note.). Although National was not prepared to unveil policies, the conference was scripted to demonstrate that the party was rigorously developing new ideas. The party prominently showcased its shadow cabinet (with a slick video introduction reminiscent of the opening credits of "The West Wing"), allowing each member time to explain their thinking in their respective portfolio areas, all in the hope of portraying them as a competent cabinet-in-waiting. A National Government's Prospective Foreign Policy -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Shadow foreign minister Murray McCully and shadow trade minister Tim Groser held a closed-door session on foreign policy for diplomatic attendees. They emphasized that foreign policymaking in New Zealand is generally a bipartisan affair and diplomats should not expect big changes under a National government. They declined to discuss foreign policy in detail, asking instead that the diplomatic corps wait for a National foreign policy paper currently in draft. ¶5. (U) A National government would focus heavily on Asia, but not at the expense of other regions. Groser summed it up by saying it would be "Asia first, but not Asia first and last." Groser applauded the management of the China-U.S. relationship, calling it "the most important bilateral relationship in the world." ¶6. (U) Groser, a former New Zealand ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and chairman of WTO agricultural negotiations, labeled the WTO as "indispensable" for a small nation like New Zealand. Although he hoped for success in the Doha Round, he predicted its demise due to lack of political will. Like the Labour government, a trade priority for a National government would be a U.S. - New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Elsewhere, according to Groser, NZ should "seize trade liberalization opportunities as they appear in the region." ¶7. (U) Groser criticized APEC as a mechanism to promote trade liberalization while admitting its worth in promoting political and technical cooperation in the region. He believes that any thought of achieving an APEC FTA by 2010 is unrealistic. A National government would support an APEC FTA only as last resort and provided there is explicit expression of interest by other APEC nations to pursue such an agreement. Regarding regional trade arrangements, Groser said a National government "will support what is put on the table but won't be a driver of the process." The Pacific Island: Development and Security -------------- ¶8. (U) In the Pacific, McCully said that a National government would better prioritize and rationalize New Zealand aid to the region, emphasizing the need for increased cooperation with other donor countries. National would focus on economic sustainability rather that poverty alleviation. McCully believes that creating conditions for economic development is the best way to help struggling South Pacific nations. ¶9. (U) National supports Labour's Fiji policy and would look to continue sanctions on the country similar to those imposed by the Labour government. However, without providing specifics, Groser WELLINGTON 00000604 002 OF 002 noted that the coup might have been avoided had Labour pursued a "more judicious" Fiji policy. Terrorism: NZ Out of Sync on Anti-Terror Measures -------------- -------------- ¶10. (U) Although differences in national security measures between National and Labour are few, Groser said, National believes that New Zealand is out of step with countries such as Australia and Canada on anti-terror legislation and designation of entities. National believes that the Labour government's anti-terror approach tilts too far in favor of civil liberties at the expense of terrorist suppression. Australia was touted as a yardstick in designating terror groups in the region and National wants New Zealand to designate any group or entity that Australia does. As a side comment, Groser predicted that the Labour government could "fall" if New Zealand was attacked by a terror group that was not on New Zealand's watch list but was on Australia's. Defense: Focus on Capacity and Inter-Operability -------------- --- ¶11. (U) A key defense focus for a National government would be to identify New Zealand's niche military strengths and to maximize inter-operability with Australia. Increased defense spending was hinted at but not promised. McCully said that National would like to add another frigate to the New Zealand Navy. A National government would commit to a Defense White Paper, the first since ¶1997. Climate change: Mixed Messages -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Some climate change rhetoric at the conference contrasted with previous party statements on the issue. Since becoming party leader, Key has attempted boost his party's environmental credentials. In a May 14 speech, Key stated that National would honor New Zealand's international obligations and would not pull out of the Kyoto Protocol. At the conference, Groser noted that the Protocol needs significant modification and talked of the need for a "Kyoto II" that took into account U.S. and Chinese concerns. John Key's speech -------------- ¶13. (U) The conference was John Key's first as party leader since taking the helm in November 2006. The purpose of his much anticipated keynote speech was to present himself as prime ministerial material and to offer a vision of how New Zealand would perform better under a National government. While eschewing detail, Key endeavored to provide enough of a policy prescription to counter Labour's efforts to categorize him as a lightweight who does not stand for anything. Comment -------------- ¶14. (SBU) National Party strategists know that any policy released so far ahead of the next election would either be forgotten, appropriated or attacked by Labour. Key himself told ConGen Auckland PO that any detail laid out at the conference would be forgotten "in a couple of weeks." It is likely that National will hold off unveiling details of its key policies, in areas such as tax and healthcare, until the official four-week election campaign. ¶15. (SBU) The absence of substance at the convention, while understandable, left a vacuum that the New Zealand media gleefully filled with the minor gaffes that such a big political show inevitably produces. Key had to scold one of his shadow ministers for an insensitive Holocaust reference while Key himself inaptly referred to his plans to lead a "Labour" government. In the days before the conference, Key got into a spat with New Zealand's leading newspaper, the New Zealand Herald, over whether he had endorsed the Australia-New Zealand drug oversight agency in an on-the-record interview. Labour believes Key puts too much of a premium on personal style ahead of policy substance and eagerly jumped on these minor miscues. While National's "coming up party" for Key was not a failure by any means, it would be fair to say that Key and the conference seemed less than triumphal. largely succeeded in upholding his PM credentials, we anticipate that Labour will attack Key's 'lack of substance' throughout the campaign period. With all of that, polls since the conference show National's edge holding strong. End Comment. McCormick