NZ OPPOSITION LEADER JOHN KEY'S JUNE 26-9 TRIP TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000464 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN STATE FOR D, EAP/FO, EAP/ANP E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV NZ SUBJECT: NZ OPPOSITION LEADER JOHN KEY'S JUNE 26-9 TRIP TO WASHINGTON REF: WELLINGTON 198 Classified By: Acting DCM Katherine B. Hadda, For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: A disciplined and effective performer in Parliament, National Party Leader John Key has moved quickly since taking command late last year to signal that his party is a government-in-waiting. He has managed to unseat PM Helen Clark as preferred Prime Minister in NZ opinion polls, the first politician to do so since Clark became Prime Minister eight years ago. During a lunch on June 20, Key has told Ambassador McCormick that he views his June 26-9 Washington trip as a chance to introduce himself to U.S. officials, explain his Party's desire to retain New Zealand's anti-nuclear policy, and to get a better sense of how the United States handles major world issues such as climate change and China's rise. We believe he also regards the trip as a way to further burnish his credentials as a statesman. A former Merrill Lynch currency trader, Key goes out of his way to express his admiration for the United States. End Summary. -------------- Key's Visit to Washington -------------- ¶2. (C) In addition to meeting with the Deputy Secretary of State and A/S Hill, Key has meetings scheduled with Deputy USTR Bhatia, Chairman Connaughton of the Council on Environmental Quality, and Congressman Faleomavaega. He also hopes to meet with senior Treasury and NSC officials, Senators Boxer, Levin, Smith, and Lugar, and Friends of New Zealand Caucus Co-Chairs Congressmen Brady and Tauscher. He will travel to Ottawa on June 27 to meet with PM Harper. ¶3. (C/NF) Key is especially interested in discussing China's increasing political and economic rise. His advisors tell us this is because National recognizes that we want to cooperate more with New Zealand in the Pacific Islands and believes New Zealand must understand of how U.S. officials view China's role in the region in order to more effectively work with us. Key also told the Ambassador he has been getting policy advice from a non-NZ Economist who specializes in China, whom he did not name. Key would also like to discuss what the United States would like New Zealand to do from a practical view on defense issues. He told the Ambassador that he tends to believe that New Zealand should do a few things well rather than spread itself too thin, and would like to get our take on this. Key and his advisors also say that if they are elected they will suggest New Zealand and the United States cooperate more on UN reform. They describe their view on the United Nations as more pragmatic than PM Clark's, whom they say is an idealistic globalist. They also say that the best path to UN reform could be for the U.S. to run reform issues through New Zealand and other small countries with good multilateral credentials. ¶4. (C/NF) Key stressed many times to the Ambassador his desire to discuss climate change and environment issues with U.S. officials. When we asked him how National would address these issues if elected he was a bit vague, however, only stressing that he would reform New Zealand's onerous Resource Management Act to make it easier to develop wind and other alternate energy sources. -------------- Background: Who is John Key? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) When John Key was elected by his caucus colleagues as the new leader of the traditionally conservative National Party on November 27 2006, following the resignation of Dr. Don Brash, many commentators saw it as the fulfillment of his political destiny. Ever since entering Parliament in 2002 following a highly successful career as a Merrill Lynch currency trader, Key had been regarded by political pundits as a possible future National Partly leader. A mere two years after entering politics, Key was ranked at tenth place in the National caucus, and was the party's spokesperson for finance. This was an extraordinary rapid rise by a political newcomer. ¶6. (SBU) After the 2005 election, Brash promoted him to number four in the caucus in recognition of his role in selling the party's tax package during the campaign. He was widely identified by election watchers as the most effective politician during the entire campaign. At the last election, Key retained his parliamentary seat with an impressive 12,778 vote majority. ¶7. (SBU) Politically, John Key is considered less ideologically strident and more moderate than his predecessor, Dr. Don Brash. He is considered relatively socially liberal by his colleagues and has embraced the causes of environment advocacy and climate change, subjects which he hopes to pursue during his Washington meetings. Just before becoming leader, Key attended the UK Conservative Party Conference in Bournemouth, and he has expressed admiration for UK Tory leader David Cameron's efforts to broaden his party's appeal. A quick and able study, Key is likely to emulate Cameron's pragmatic attempts to soften the image of his own historically conservative party by moving more to the center of New Zealand politics. -------------- Key on Foreign Policy, the United States, and the Nuclear Issue -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Key has said publicly he believes that it is in the national interest to have as little as space as possible between National and Labour on matters of foreign policy. Nevertheless, when Prime Minister Clark issued a statement distancing herself from Duty Minister Jim Anderton's January 2007 criticism of President Bush's new policy directive on Iraq, Key told the press he believed that Anderton was merely repeating what he had heard around the Cabinet table. Key has proposed more public consultation on defense goals and strategies and a closer defense relationship with Australia, and stressed the need to build on relationships with South Pacific nations. ¶9. (C/NF) Key has worked in the United States and speaks favorably of the U.S. He has been friendly to Mission New Zealand and was scheduled to travel to Washington on the International Visitor Program earlier this year but canceled at the last minute, presumably to compete for the National Leadership once it was clear Dr. Brash would soon be forced out by his caucus. Post expects the United States will continue to have a good working relationship with National under his leadership. ¶10. (SBU) Soon after becoming party leader Key commented that "I have a very much more positive view of the United States and its role in world affairs than most ministers in the Clark Government." He has also noted that although the ANZUS defense alliance has "essentially been dead for 20 years now", he believes that there is scope for a constructive relationship between New Zealand and the United States beyond the pact. However, he also moved quickly to clarify that a National Government under his premiership will not change NZ's anti-nuclear policy. In his statement, Key declared that he believes that "New Zealanders have a long-held view that (the anti-nuclear legislation) is important to (New Zealand's) nation-building. I think they see it as New Zealand standing up strongly for something it believes in. I believe in that position and I see absolutely no reason to change it." ¶11. (C) Key told the Ambassador that he wishes to explain this position to U.S. officials during his Washington meetings. We expect he will explain that he needed to bring his party's position alongside the Government in order to neutralize what had been for National a political problem: The National Party's position on retaining the anti-nuclear legislation in the pre-Key period was vague at best and some Nat officials suggested that they might scrap the policy if elected. This allowed the Labour Government to score many easy political points off National. -------------- National doing extremely well under Key -------------- ¶12. (C) Under Key's leadership, National has led the Labour Government in political polling and its margin is widening at a considerable rate. The three most recent political polls all show that National is well ahead of Labour Government, with an average 20-point advantage. Much of National's success is driven by Key's high personal popularity rating. He has experienced an extraordinarily long honeymoon period which shows no show of abating. Key told the Ambassador on June 20 that he believes his success is partly due to a series of Labour Government bungles over the past months, such as the Philip Field fiasco, as well as a growing electorate sense that the Government is intervening too much in the private lives of ordinary New Zealanders. Said Key, "Anti-smacking, removing reference to Christ from the Parliamentary Prayer, banning junk foods in schools -- are these big issues?" -------------- Comment -------------- ¶13. (C/NF) As Auckland Consul General Desrocher observed in Reftel, Key's "Nice Guy" approach at times begs the question of how he will effectively separate himself from the Labour Government in the minds of the electorate. But we were struck during his lunch with the Ambassador how much he has clearly been thinking about how to put a National-type spin on a range of issues. While it is still far too early to call how the November 2008 elections will play out, polls suggest that Key is on track to be New Zealand's next Prime Minister. His eagerness to meet with senior Washington officials suggests that he thinks this is very likely as well. End Comment. MCCORMICK