KACZYNSKIS SEEK TO SOLDIER ON DESPITE CRACKS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000355 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2032 TAGS: PGOV PREL PL SUBJECT: KACZYNSKIS SEEK TO SOLDIER ON DESPITE CRACKS IN LAW AND JUSTICE REF: WARSAW DAILY EMAILS WARSAW 00000355 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Kenneth Hillas, DCM, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. There is a crisis atmosphere within the government as President and Prime Minister Kaczynskis' most loyal political lieutenants are squabbling publicly. Even for the Kaczynskis, who have overseen a government buffeted by crisis (much of their own making),the resignations last week of Minister of Interior Ludwik Dorn, MOD Radek Sikorski, Chief of Poland's National Police, Marek Bienkowski and Presidential Advisor for Foreign Affairs Andrzej Krawczyk, have left their government in disarray. This is the latest episode of a familiar story with the Kaczynskis, namely stoking political "crisis," and then having to scramble when the story spins out of their control. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Press reports of Ludwik Dorn's plans within the government are unsettled and reflect the shifting nature of the latest political tempest in Warsaw. Dorn abruptly, and from all reports unexpectedly, resigned on February 7 from his post as Minister of Interior, but vowed to stay on as the Deputy Prime Minister. His refusal to cite the reasons for his departure, other than a vague reference to "differences of opinion with the PM," naturally unleashed a torrent of speculation as to why "the third twin" would have walked away from his job at the head of one of the ministries key to the PiS law and order platform. Dorn took the unusual step, particularly in the tight knit circle of Kaczynski advisors, to publish a letter in which he complained about suggestions that he had not been sufficiently aggressive in investigating fraud. Dorn vowed to stay away from the government until his name was cleared from such charges, leading the press to speculate on February 14 that he was going to resign as Deputy PM and even leave the Law and Justice party (PiS) he helped establish with the Kaczynski brothers. ¶3. (U) What seems increasingly clear is that Dorn had a different view from PM Kaczynski and Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro (another Kaczynski insider) with respect to how police investigations were being conducted and, specifically, to which ministry the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBS) should report. Ziobro and Kaczynski apparently argued for shifting the responsibility over from Dorn's Interior Ministry to Ziobro's Justice Ministry. PiS officials and party spokesman, Adam Bielan, admit that the rift between Dorn and Ziobro was behind Dorn's decision to walk away. ¶4. (U) The Dorn resignation grabbed headlines away from Radek Sikorski's resignation, a scant 48 hours earlier, from the Ministry of Defense, spurred by Sikorski's frustration with the role played by Antoni Macierewicz, a Kaczynski insider, who operates the new military counter intelligence service nearly wholly free from the minister's influence. New MOD Aleksander Szczyglo has begun cleaning house, starting with the F-16 program manager. Added to this are allegations of corruption on the part of the Deputy Chief of the Military Property Agency, and the resignation of that agency's leadership. ¶5. (C) The Presidential Chancellery is also in disarray after the quick resignation of Andrzej Krawczyk, the President's Advisor for Foreign Affairs, compounded by the lack of a replacement for Szczyglo's former position as Presidential Chancellery Chief of Staff. President Kaczynski reportedly felt he had no choice but to ask for Krawczyk's resignation, owing to the zero tolerance atmosphere within PiS of any official who dealt with the former communist authorities. Another Chancellery official told Pol Internal Chief on February 13 that she was the "sole voice" to object to Krawczyk's departure on "the basis of a single piece of paper being waved in front of his face," and not on the basis of a fuller examination of the charges that he collaborated. ¶6. (C) The problems within PiS are exacerbated by ongoing tensions within the coalition. PiS officials believe they were manipulated by Roman Giertych and the League of Polish Families (LPR) when Giertych wrestled additional government appointments in exchange for LPR's support of Slawomir Skrzypek, PiS's candidate for the chairmanship of the Polish National Bank. Samoobrona's chief, Andrzej Lepper, is still grabbing headlines for his role in a sordid sex scandal, and for critical comments about Poland's possible role in Missile Defense, delivered in Moscow to Russian Vice Premier Alexander Torszyn. The coalition is also tested by the routine and sometimes stinging criticism of ministers by Przemyslaw Gosiewski, one of PM Kaczynski's most trusted lieutenants, who is a Minister without portfolio in charge of the Council of Ministers. In this position, he is the chief WARSAW 00000355 002.2 OF 002 whip for pushing the government's legislative agenda. Politically, he is widely viewed as the PM's mouthpiece, stoking what many see as the PM's penchant for "permanent revolution." ¶7. (C) Comment: The Kaczynski's primary focus on law and order issues may have created the crack within their inner sanctum of advisors, by forcing PM Kaczynski to choose sides in the Dorn/Ziobro feud. Dorn and Ziobro are perhaps their two closest advisors, valued both for their competence and their loyalty. PM Kaczynski and Dorn may each have overplayed his hand, assuming that the other would back down; the public airing of their differences is highly unusual but symptomatic of the government's disarray. Dorn's departure from government is a bigger blow to the Kaczynski's, who viewed the ambitious, worldly Sikorski with some suspicion and Krawczyk and Bienkowski as technocrats. The new cabinet ministers are likely to take some time to get up to speed on a variety of issues important to us. New Minister of Interior Kaczmarek is by all accounts a strong replacement for Dorn, but will need time to understand the complexity of some issues affecting us, such as the prospective purchase of military property for a new consulate in Krakow, where he will be a key player. End Comment. ASHE