DEPARTURE OF DEFMIN RADEK SIKORSKI: RESIGNATION OR

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 000247 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2007 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PL SUBJECT: DEPARTURE OF DEFMIN RADEK SIKORSKI: RESIGNATION OR DISMISSAL? Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin, reasons 1.4(b) and ( d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. PM Jaroslaw Kaczynski accepted February 5 the resignation of DefMin Radek Sikorski, only hours after the MOD spokesman announced that Sikorski had submitted it. Although it will not be clear how Sikorski's departure might affect U.S. interests until a successor is named, the change should not threaten Poland's deployments to Afghanistan or Iraq - both of which President Lech Kaczynski has supported publicly. Overall Sikorski's departure seems more to reflect domestic political maneuvering than any planned change in Polish defense policy. There is every expectation that the next DefMin will be a loyal member of the Kaczynski inner circle who will faithfully represent the president's views. SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Sikorski's departure followed a flood of media stories over the weekend and the morning of February 5 his disagreements with the Kaczynskis and his feud with former deputy DefMin, now Chief of Military Counter-Intelligence (WSK),Antoni Macierewicz. The latter is a champion of anti-Communist "purges" and enjoys a close relationship with the president and PM. Sikorski never managed to reach the inner circle. Once the story broke, a government spokesman asserted that the PM had uncovered serious problems with Sikorski's management of the MOD during his periodic review of all ministries' operations, which commentators and opposition leaders (including former defense minister Jerzy Szmajdzinski) dismissed out-of-hand. It would thus seem that this personnel change does not signal a change in Poland's foreign or defense policy, but rather reaffirms the value of personal loyalty to the Kaczynski brothers, domestic political agenda. ¶3. (U) In a press conference, Sikorski said he had asked for Macierewicz's dismissal. Sikorski said that he supported sending troops to Afghanistan but had not been given the resources to accomplish the mission, indicating that because of his dispute with Macierewicz over control of military intelligence, he could not adequately protect the troops. ¶4. (C) Sikorski had been a vocal proponent of defense reform. His call for full professionalization of the armed forces by 2012, including no more and probably less than the current 150,000 total troops, clearly conflicted with President Lech Kaczynski's vision of an expanded conscription raising troop levels to nearly 200,000 troops. Sikorski's willingness to consider the findings of the strongly reformist Strategic Defense Review (SDR) further conflicted with the Kaczynskis' vision, not only on substance but because the SDR was begun by the previous post-Communist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) government. The SDR is now billed by the government as just one of many inputs to a new review by the National Security Council, rather than its guiding blueprint for transformation. ¶5. (C) Sikorski's departure almost certainly does not signal a change to Poland's commitments in Iraq or Afghanistan, since the Kaczynski brothers have both publicly backed these operations. We expect that there will be no adverse impact on the planned deployment of some 1,200 Polish troops to Afghanistan in the first half of 2007 or the GOP commitment to maintain its current troop level of 800-900 in Iraq through the end of 2007. ¶6. (C) Comment: We cannot speculate yet on how the change in DefMin will affect other U.S. interests, until a successor is named and we can judge their ties to the Kaczynskis and their previous record on issues of importance to the U.S. One thing is certain: whoever takes over at MOD will be much less willing to disagree - whether in private or in public - with either Lech or Jarek Kaczynski. Sikorski was viewed by the PiS inner circle as very, if not excessively, pro-American, and was never part of the Kaczynski inner circle. Loyalty to the Kaczynskis will be a top factor in the selection of his successor. HILLAS