PM TUSK WINS VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN PARLIAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002274 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2022 TAGS: PGOV PREL PL SUBJECT: PM TUSK WINS VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN PARLIAMENT REF: WARSAW 2224 AND PREVIOUS WARSAW 00002274 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: As expected, PM Donald Tusk won a vote of confidence in the Polish Sejm on November 24, winning 238 votes (230 are necessary). Tusk presented his governmental expose to the Sejm on November 23, outlining an ambitious agenda that includes health sector reform, infrastructure improvements and maintaining Poland's strong economic performance. On foreign policy issues, Tusk pledged to withdraw Polish troops from Iraq in 2008, but did not state a timeline for that withdrawal, saying the date would be worked out with Poland's closest allies, including the U.S. His willingness to be flexible bodes well for the GOP working with us to shape the withdrawal. On Afghanistan, Tusk pledged to maintain the number of Polish troops deployed, especially given the NATO basis of the mission, and called for it to transition to a more civilian character. Tusk also emphasized the need for Poland to "intensify" relations with its nearest neighbors, specifically mentioning Germany and France, and stated the need for better relations with Russia. President Lech Kaczynski was absent from Tusk's speech, on a long-planned visit to Georgia. President Kaczynski will look to play an intensified role in foreign and security policy, with a revitalized Presidential Chancellery that is sure to bump up against the new PM and his team, especially when it lets domestic politics blur with foreign policy. End Summary. Tusk Wins His Vote of Confidence Handily -------------- ¶2. (SBU) PM Donald Tusk won a vote of confidence in Parliament, 238 votes to 204. The majority came from party line votes from his Civic Platform (PO) party and the Polish People's Party (PSL),with which he signed a coalition agreement on November 23. As expected, opposition Law and Justice (PiS) and the Left and Democrats (LiD) voted against the government. Former Deputy PM and Minister of Finance Zita Gilowska (formerly a PO leader) and former Minister of Health Zbigniew Religa (once close to PO),who both served in the PiS government and were elected from PiS, were present but did not vote. With the vote done, the transition to Tusk's government is complete. The Polish constitution gives broad powers to the Prime Minister, and it is difficult to remove a government from office. We expect this government to be more stable than its immediate predecessor. Polish Troops to Withdraw from Iraq in 2008 Better Relations with EU and Russia -------------- ¶3. (C) Tusk delivered a three-hour long speech to the Sejm on November 23 to outline his plans for the government. On foreign policy issues, Tusk vowed that Polish troops would end their Iraq deployment in 2008, but offered no specifics as to dates or conditions. He pledged to work closely with allies, mentioning the United States, on the details. (Note: The Ambassador had urged FM Radek Sikorski in their one-on-one meeting November 21 to consult first with the USG before moving precipitously or announcing specific dates, which Sikorski said Tusk planned to do. Sikorski promised to pass word to PM Tusk to ask him not to announce a specific date. End Note) In his speech, Tusk said there would be no change in Poland's troop levels in Afghanistan in 2008, and pledged 350 Polish soldiers to the EU peacekeeping mission in Chad. On Missile Defense, Tusk said that there would be further negotiations with the United States after a round of consultations with NATO and with "some of Poland's neighbors." As for the United States, Tusk expressed hope for a broader presence of the United States in Poland, and emphasized the mutual values both countries share. ¶4. (SBU) Tusk's references to foreign policy were at bottom criticisms of the mishandling of several key relationships by the Kaczynskis, especially within the EU (in particular with German) and with Russia. He said he would return to a policy of dialogue with Russia, while continuing support for democracy in Belarus and for Ukraine's European aspirations. He pledged to develop better relations with Germany, as with all European Union countries, and to "intensify" Poland's activity within the EU. (Note: The government announced on November 27 that it would not block Russia's bid to enter the WTO--it's first significant policy shift. End Note) "A Normal Government..." -------------- ¶5. (U) Making another dig at the turbulent Kaczynski-led government, Tusk promised "a normal government for a normal WARSAW 00002274 002.2 OF 002 country." His domestic agenda includes ending compulsory military service, splitting the functions of the Minister of Justice and the prosecutor general and expediting the construction of roads and highways. Tusk added that his government would unveil a four-year privatization plan. After two years of resistance to privatization by the PiS-led government, business leaders are encouraged that PO will follow through with a more aggressive privatization plan. Tusk further promised health care, pension and education reforms. Health Reform a Potential Problem -------------- ¶6. (C) Tusk is enjoying a honeymoon with the Polish public, but it may be short-lived. In addition, he is enjoying no honeymoon with the opposition. PiS promised and will almost certainly deliver an almost reflexive opposition to Tusk and his program. PiS party chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski offered a blistering criticism immediately following the PM's expose, calling it a return to "pacification, petrificaction and restoration." Tusk will also face some real domestic problems, starting with the deplorable state of the health sector. Gazeta Wyborcza editor Piotr Stasinski and Polytika commentator Janina Paradowska separately told poloffs that health reform is a potential mine field for the new government -- with already poor standards falling, and salaries so low that medical professionals are increasingly abandoning the field or moving abroad to work for higher pay. This, combined with higher expectations among Poles as their incomes rise, is a recipe for serious political difficulty. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Comment: Tusk's pledge to remove Polish troops from Iraq follows up on an oft-repeated campaign pledge. Foreign Minister Sikorski told Ambassador that Tusk considers this a "solemn pledge," and he will want to start showing something to his public sooner rather than later, but we have been assured this will be done in consultation with us. On MD, Platforma and the Left and Democratic (LiD) told us often that they received more information from us than from the then PiS government about the status of negotiations on Missile Defense. Tusk and his ministers will want to review where things stand before they move forward. We should welcome his signal that his government will consult with Russia and not leaving that all to us. European leaders are encouraged that they will have a more reasonable counterpart in Warsaw. While Tusk stated in his speech that he would work with the President to ensure coordination on foreign policy, we have already seen hints that President Kaczynski will allow domestic politics to influence his handling of foreign policy, which may complicate our efforts on key issues. These issues will compete for Tusk's attention with nagging domestic problems left unaddressed by the previous government, notably health care and pension reform. With a spirited opposition and a revitalized Presidential chancellery intent on playing up its role, particularly on foreign and security policy, Tusk will face many challenges in the weeks and months ahead. End Comment. HILLAS