URBAN VOTERS DELIVER LANDSLIDE VICTORY TO CIVIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WARSAW 002136

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2022
TAGS: PGOV PREL EFIN MARR PL
SUBJECT: URBAN VOTERS DELIVER LANDSLIDE VICTORY TO CIVIC
PLATFORM

REF: WARSAW 2121 AND PREVIOUS

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Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The opposition Civic Platform (PO) won a
decisive victory over ruling Law and Justice (PiS),as urban
and youth voters, motivated apparently by PO leader Donald
Tusk's decisive debate with PM Jarek Kaczynski, and by PiS's
over-the-top campaign tactics, turned out in high numbers.
With 99% of results tallied, PO captured 41.39% of the vote,
which should translate to 209 deputies in the next
parliament. Its wide margin of victory over PiS, which came
in a distinct second at 32.16% (166 deputies),means Tusk and
PO will form the next government. PO's likeliest coalition
partner is the Polish Peasants Party (PSL),which came in
fourth place, with 8.93% of the vote (31 deputies),although
PSL is expected to be demanding in terms of ministries and
agricultural policy. A PO-PSL coalition would provide a
comfortable majority. Cooperation from Left and Democracy
(LiD),which won 13.2% of the vote (for 53 seats) would
enable such a coalition to override presidential vetoes.
President Kaczynski vowed that as "the president of all
Poles," he would cooperate with PO; however, Chancellery
officials are already suggesting the President should have a
voice in deciding who will head certain "power ministries"
(i.e., Defense, Foreign Affairs, Interior, and Special
Services),in the next government. Outgoing PM Kaczynski
promised to provide a "tough and resolute" opposition. We
can expect PO's leadership to work closely with the USG on
the wide range of bilateral priorities, but to look to
withdraw from Iraq and to be able to say it ran tough
negotiations to guard Poland's interests on Missile Defense.
PO will likely bring greater expertise to Poland's role
within European institutions, and notably with the critical
bilateral relationship with neighboring Germany. End
Summary.

PiS Takes a Thumping from Polska A
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2. (C) PO leaders themselves were surprised by the wide
margin of their victory in October 21 elections, beating PiS
by nearly ten points, and coming tantalizingly close to an
outright majority in the next parliament. PO's victory is
attributed to an extraordinarily high turn out in Polish
cities and among youth. We expect clearer analysis in coming
days of what motivated voters, although it would appear that
Donald Tusk's October 12 debate with PM Kaczynski was
decisive. As one analyst remarked, Tusk succeeded in
portraying Kaczynski as an anachronism and a danger to what
Poles now enjoy. Many were alarmed at PiS's tactics last
week when the controversial head of the Central
Anti-Corruption Bureau (CBA) made a dramatic (even desperate)
televised accusation of corruption against a PO deputy,
arguing voters should not support such a party. In Warsaw
alone fully 70% of registered voters cast ballots, and
national results were delayed by nearly three hours when a
number of Warsaw precincts ran out of ballots. Middle class
contacts, including professionals at the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, were nearly giddy in talking to Emboffs about the
results. In the head-to-head match up, Tusk beat PM Jaroslaw
Kaczynski nearly two-to-one. Over 53% of voters aged 18-24
cast ballots, proving that the youth vote played a large role
in PO's success. Rural voters who make up the PiS core
constituency voted in far fewer numbers than in 2005.


3. (C) PO's natural coalition partner is PSL; their two
caucuses should count for 240 deputies, nine more than needed
for a parliamentary majority. PSL leader Waldemar Pawlak and
PO leadership are keeping quiet about possible coalition
deals, although it's widely expected Pawlak (who served
formerly as PM),will be offered a Deputy PM slot and the
Ministry of Agriculture. Responding to the dismal fortunes
of the now destroyed agrarian populist party Self-Defense,
Pawlak on October 22 vowed to represent the interests of all
farmers, clearly positioning himself as the king maker and
the spokesman for rural "Polska B," in a new government.
However, Pawel Zalewski, PiS's current head of the Foreign
Relations Commission, predicted to Polcouns that negotiations
with PSL would be difficult, and that PSL would be more
demanding than some expected.


4. (C) President Lech Kaczynski offered his congratulations
to the PO leadership for their victory, promising to work
cooperatively and noting that he was "president of all
Poles." His twin, PM Kaczynski, promised a "tough and
resolute" opposition. A PO-PSL coalition will not be able to
override presidential vetoes, and we wholly expect some of
that resolute opposition to emanate from the Presidential
Chancellery. Officials in the President's office are already

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suggesting that Kaczynski should have a voice in the
appointment of "power ministries" which will surely be
rejected by PO. (The expected PO-PiS coalition broke down in
2005 in large part because PiS would not allow PO to have any
of those ministries.)

Kwasniewski's Faults Hurt LiD
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5. (U) The reconstituted Left and Democrats (LiD) failed to
rebound in significant numbers, capturing 13.2% of the vote
for an anticipated 53 deputies, lower than expected. Former
president Aleksandr Kwasniewski laid the blame for LiD's
meager third place squarely at his own feet. After two
episodes of apparent public inebriation in the last several
weeks, Kwasniewski may have reminded voters of what they did
not like about the SLD/Kwasniewski years (in particular
problems with corruption) driving some potential supporters
to PO. Kwasniewski's episodes instantly became the stuff of
jokes, despite a tearful, televised interview with his
daughter, Ola Kwasniewska (who starred in "Dancing with the
Stars"),who claimed her father is suffering from an exotic
illness contracted in the Philippines some years ago.
Kwasniewski announced he would retire from politics and
return to the lecture circuit, including at Georgetown
University.

Chicago: The Heart of Polska B
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6. (U) Tens of thousands of Poles living abroad voted in the
elections, their votes counting in the Warsaw race between
Tusk and Kaczynski. The expatriate vote was widely reported,
with Poles residing in Germany, the UK and Ireland voting
disproportionately for PO, and a whopping 80% of Chicago's
Poles (who together make up the second largest
Polish-speaking city in the world, after Warsaw) voting for
PiS. The new wave of immigrants who have flocked to other
European countries are younger and better educated, and voted
for PO; whereas the older, more conservative Polish-American
community was Kaczynski-territory.

No "Tusk Bounce" for the Zloty, but Economists Beaming
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7. (U) Despite the efforts of his campaign gurus, PM
Kaczynski was not able to convince average Poles that his
government was responsible for Poland's economic boom. In
fact, PiS's emphasis on rooting out communism and corruption
may have scared them into thinking PiS could undo what many
Poles now enjoy. While details on PO's economic agenda are
sketchy, potential Minister of Finance Zbigniew Chlebowski
announced that PO will seek to cut the budget deficit from
current levels (28.6 billion PLN) to 20 billion PLN. PO
would like to enter the ERMII exchange rate mechanism in
2009, as a precursor for joining the Euro in 2012. PO also
plans to limit public expenditures in order to introduce a
flat tax of 15% on personal and corporate incomes in 2009.
Experts are openly pleased with the election results, as most
analysts believe PO is business-friendlier than PiS and will
take steps to make the economy friendly to investors.
Although there is no evidence today of a "Tusk bounce," most
expect the zloty to continue to appreciate against the
dollar, and for the Warsaw Stock Exchange to rise.

Timing for a New Government--
Movement on Key Bilateral Issues
--------------


8. (C) The first seating of the newly elected Sejm will be
on November 5, and between now and then we expect rather
considerable jockeying for influence, both within PO for
various government positions, and between PO and PSL as they
discuss terms for a possible coalition. With its clear
victory, PO will have more room to maneuver in establishing a
government, but one moderate PiS figure told Polcouns today
he expects PSL to drive a tough bargain, both in terms of
ministries it would like to control, and in terms of foreign
and economic policy. We are now hearing that Bronislaw
Komorowski is expected to be Speaker of the Sejm; with rumors
of either former PM Jerzy Buzek or former Defense Minister
Radek Sikorski as Foreign Minister; and Bogdan Zdrojewski as
Defense Minister. The personalities will have an impact on
policy, and it may take some time for the new government to
establish the specifics of its positions on key bilateral
issues.

--On Missile Defense, PO will want to examine the Polish
position carefully before moving forward. PO's leadership is
favorably disposed to MD, but will want to show they have put
their stamp on the negotiations.

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--On Iraq, as we reported reftel, Tusk was adamant in
delinking PO's position in favor of withdrawing Polish troops
from Iraq from recent terrorist attacks against Polish
interests including the car bomb that seriously injured
Polish Ambassador to Iraq Edward Pietrzyk. PO will not move
rashly, but we should expect that it will speed up a possible
Polish reduction in forces in 2008. PO will likely support
the Polish mission in Afghanistan, given its NATO character.

--We anticipate improved relationships within the EU and with
key neighbors, most notably with neighboring Germany.
Europeans broadly expect the tone of the relationships and of
Poland's presence to improve, but on substance (e.g.
insistence that Russia lift the meat ban before Poland lifts
its veto on the negotiating mandate for a new EU-Russia
treaty) many do not expect drastic changes.


9. (C) Comment: The election sent a clear message of
repudiation of the Kaczynskis and the two chaotic years of
PiS rule. PiS managed to accomplish one of its priorities:
destroying its competition to the right (the League of Polish
Families and Self-Defense received only 1.2% and 1.5% of the
votes, respectively),further suggesting that the
heavy-handed manner of the coalition, and LPR and SO's
anti-Semitic stirrings fell absolutely flat with the vast
majority of Poles. But while picking up support from the
right, centrist voters fled from PiS, and Poles continued
their post-Communist tradition of passing the baton to a new
team. Tusk will face many challenges ahead, most notably
with a Kaczynski still occupying the Presidential
Chancellery, and wholly willing to turn PiS's considerable
political acumen to undermining a PO-led government. End
Comment.
ASHE