MUD-SLINGING CAMPAIGN DRAWS TO A CLOSE WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002128

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2022
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR PL
SUBJECT: MUD-SLINGING CAMPAIGN DRAWS TO A CLOSE WITH
OUTCOME TOO CLOSE TO CALL

REF: WARSAW 2001 AND PREVIOUS

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Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Poles will go to vote this Sunday with
increasingly stark campaign ad messages of "disaster" in the
health sector, a fresh corruption scandal carefully timed for
maximum political impact, and a dash of anti-Semitism to add
to the campaign. The final week has seen spirited
mud-slinging by both the Law and Justice (PiS) government and
a suddenly revived opposition Civic Platform (PO). PO's
Donald Tusk may be peaking at exactly the right moment, after
successfully characterizing PM Kaczynski in last week's
debate as an anachronism fixated on the past. A PO victory
will hinge on urban and student/young adult turnout. PiS has
deftly manipulated a new scandal, attempting to scare voters
with ads that suggest that average Poles will die for lack of
affordable health care if PO wins and privatizes hospitals.
PO leads most polls, but methods and margins of error leave
the race too close to call. End Summary.

PiS Uses Scare Tactics on Health Care
--------------


2. (C) Donald Tusk emerged the clear victor in his two
debates, first against PM Kaczynski (October 12) and then
against Left and Democrats (LiD) leader Aleksandr Kwasniewski
(October 15),as the clear victor, and PO entered the
critical, final week of the campaign in a stronger position,
with many polls indicating a slender lead over PiS in this
weekend's election. One observer told us he thought Tusk
"won" because he succeeded in painting Kaczynski as an
anachronism, obsessed with the past, when what Poland needed
was pragmatic approaches to build the future. TV and
internet ads, both PO and independently sponsored, blame the
Kaczynskis for the flood of migrants to England and Ireland,
and warn of their "undemocratic" methods. Some polling
indicates more people plan to vote than last time, which
would favor PO.


3. (C) Undaunted, or perhaps concerned about PO's surge, PiS
rolled out a new campaign ad that features Minister of Health
Zbigniew Religa suggesting that average Poles will die for
lack of affordable medical care if PO proceeds with plans to
privatize hospitals. (Religa had actually supported some
privatization of hospitals in an August interview with
Newsweek.) On October 17, President Kaczynski vowed to veto
any legislation that calls for hospital privatization. PiS
spin doctor Adam Bielan moreover allegedly provided former
President Kwasniewski's campaign staff with health care
talking points for Kwasniewski's use for the Tusk debate. PO
has tried to make a campaign issue of what it says is a
brewing health care crisis, pointing to the recent evacuation
of hospital patients from several hospitals after striking
doctors left the patients unattended.

A Fresh Corruption Scandal, Artfully Presented to the Public
-------------- --------------


4. (C) PiS has made use of a fresh political scandal
involving a former PO politician to capture considerable
public attention in the campaign's final days. On October 1,
PO MP Beata Sawicka was caught red-handed accepting a bribe
in a corruption sting operation involving property in the
seaside resort of Hel. Sawicka was detained for questioning
but (owing to her parliamentary immunity) promptly released.
PO subsequently drummed her out of the party, and removed her
as its Senate candidate in Legnica. The Central
Anti-Corruption Office (CBA),which orchestrated the sting,
made assurances that Sawicka's case would not be exploited
for political gain before the election. Nonetheless, on
October 16 CBA Chief Mariusz Kaminski held a slick press
conference providing details of Sawicka's case, baldly using
the investigation to try to shift public attention back to
PiS's preferred campaign theme--fighting corruption. Tusk
decried the use of CBA in a "determined and deliberate" way
to manipulate the election, charging that PM Kaczynski uses
lies and insinuations as a primary political tool. Political
observers and opinion polls tell us that while PO voters will
agree with Tusk and be disgusted by the methods, a solid 30 %
of the public see the action as a positive step toward ending
corruption, which should help keep PiS voters on track.

--------------
Iraq Attacks Draw Attention
but Do Not Appear to Have
Significant Electoral Impact
--------------


5. (C) The October 3 attack on Polish Ambassador to Iraq,

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Edward Pietrzyk, and subsequent bomb blasts near the Polish
Embassy put the issue of the Iraq war back on the front page,
and fostered some renewed debate about Poland's continuing
deployment there, but failed to galvanize anti-war
sentiments. If anything, the attacks stiffened the Polish
resolve to not be dictated to by terrorists. Politicians
have remained resolute in de-linking previous calls for
orderly withdrawal from the recent bombings. Tusk said that
"no Polish government, neither this one nor the future one
that PO will form, should give in to acts of terror..." He
stressed that PO's long-standing position to withdraw troops
from Iraq was not influenced by recent events. PO Sejm
candidate (and former PiS Minister of Defense) Radek Sikorski
echoed Tusk's comments that Poland should focus on
Afghanistan. Even Andrzej Lepper, whose party is virulently
anti-war, noted that any withdrawal from Iraq should be done
in an orderly fashion, and not before mid-2008. Defense
Minister Aleksandr Szczyglo's criticism of the opposition for
politicizing Iraq failed to gain much response.

LPR Fails to Gain with anti-Iraq War Ad
--------------


6. (C) With its fortunes failing, the League of Polish
Families (LPR) apparently did not regain any ground with its
release this week of the first anti-war commercial of the
campaign. The spot showed flag-draped coffins, crazed Iraqi
mobs, and, under the banner "allies," images of President
Kaczynski with President Bush and with Jewish leaders at the
Wailing Wall in Jerusalem. The ad primarily attacks Poland's
involvement in Iraq (which LPR has long opposed),but also
smacks of anti-Semitism, as was quickly pointed out by a rash
of critical stories in the international press. The
anti-Semitism and the exploitation of images of dead soldiers
were denounced by Polish politicians including the Kaczynskis
and PO leaders. Israeli Ambassador David Peleg told poloff
that his government expressly decided to say nothing for fear
of drawing more attention to LPR. Despite the ad, LPR's
fortunes are poor, consistently polling well below the five
percent parliamentary threshold.


7. (C) Agrarian populist Andrzej Lepper, the leader of
Self-Defense (SO),has been virtually absent from the scene;
it would appear that the angry farmers of years past are more
satisfied with their lot since Poland's entry into the EU,
and it seems likely that SO will not meet the five percent
threshold for representation in the Sejm. Conversely, the
once-failing Polish Peasants' Party, led by former Prime
Minister Waldemar Pawlak, has regained ground--as
representing perhaps not-so-angry farmers--and may be a
kingmaker in post-election coalition jockeying.

Gaming Out Possible Post-Election Coalitions
--------------


8. (C) With the likelihood that the election will result in
PiS and PO at nearly equal strength, attention is shifting
toward what kind of post-election coalition is possible.
Most of the combinations pose difficulties for the possible
members. If it wins (and PM Kaczynski said today he fully
expects to win and to keep his job),some see a coalition
with PSL, supplemented by PO defectors. Enticing PSL to the
table, however, after rejecting them repeatedly, may be
tough. Many say PSL would not agree. If PiS wins, PO will
be in a very difficult spot. It fears that if it goes into
coalition with PiS in the lead, PiS will work night and day
to destroy it as it destroyed LPR and SO. But senior PO
leader Waldy Dzikowski admitted to poloff on October 12 that
anything was possible; and Bozenna Bukiewicz, a PO MP from
Zielona Gora, also told poloff that PO would have to be in
the next government, or would surely fall apart.


9. (C) PO has more options if it comes in first place. As
reported reftel, the "natural" coalition is PO-PSL. Adding
LiD would be hard for the more conservative PO members to
swallow, although a "grand coalition" between PO-PSL-LiD is
conceivable, according to Lena Bobinska, who spoke to poloffs
on October 18. And although Tusk declared that a coalition
with Jaroslaw Kaczynski was impossible to conceive, he
notably did not rule out a possible PO-led coalition with PiS
(which would leave Jaroslaw out of the government but leading
PiS). Many political leaders (such as a group of mainly
PO-oriented mayors of large cities with whom the Ambassador
had lunch recently) see an unstable coalition leading to
elections again in less than two years. Election silence
begins at midnight Friday. Turnout for the
election--especially among the young and among urban dwellers
generally, will be the key.
ASHE