TUSK COMING ON STRONG, BUT IS IT TOO LITTLE TOO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002101

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2022
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: TUSK COMING ON STRONG, BUT IS IT TOO LITTLE TOO
LATE?

REF: WARSAW 2033

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Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary: With polls flip flopping between the ruling
Law and Order (PiS) and main opposition Civic Platform (PO),
the October 12 debate between PM Kaczynski and PO's Donald
Tusk may prove decisive in a tight race. After weeks of
running an anemic and lackluster campaign, Tusk came out
swinging, and was deemed the winner by virtually all who
watched the debate. Instant polls showed a surge for PO, but
the race is still tight, and will still come down to turnout,
particularly in the cities where PO holds a decisive edge.
The Kaczynski electoral machine is humming, but may have lost
the momentum in the final stretch of the campaign. PiS
strategists nonetheless look to achieve one of their primary
goals -- knocking out former coalition partners to their
right. Self Defense (SO) and the League of Polish Families
(LPR) consistently fall below the parliamentary threshold.
End Summary.

Tusk Wins his Debate -- but is it Enough?
--------------


2. (C) With a scant six days before Poles elect a new
parliament on October 21, the race for first place is a toss
up between PiS and PO. Daily polls contradict each other,
showing one or the other party edging out the competition by
a narrow margin, suggesting the election is a toss up. With
turnout key, the PiS electoral machine is operating smoothly,
and as reported reftel, the Kaczynski brothers have managed
to dominate the race and write the rules of engagement.
After two years of non-stop crisis management, the campaign
has little to do with their stewardship, and everything to do
with the campaign themes they prefer, most notably, stamping
out corruption. PO candidates we have talked to despair,
admitting that Tusk has run an anemic campaign with poor
advisors. They finally got what they hoped for in last
Friday's debate. Tusk came out swinging, criticizing PM
Kaczynski for an incompetent foreign policy and questioning
PiS's economic stewardship. Polls released immediately
following the debate showed that Tusk was deemed the victor
by a large margin, and PO numbers have ticked up.


3. (C) The question is whether the feisty performance by
Tusk in the debate can turn the tide this late in the
campaign. The opposition looked strong when parliament voted
to dissolve, but has run a positively lackluster campaign.
Senior PO officials, including Jaroslaw Gowin, who leads the
PO parliamentary list in Krakow, and Slawomir Rybicki, a Tusk
confidant who leads the PO list in Olsztyn, have told us they
felt that (until the debate) the momentum belonged to PiS,
and they feared blowing another election. Sejm candidate
Bozena Bokuwiec told poloff hours before the debate that
"Donald always does best when he's a little irritated, and
feels provoked." She admitted moreover that PO is under
tremendous pressure to be in whatever governing coalition
results from next weekend's balloting, preferably in the
lead, but even as a junior partner to PiS. If PO fails to
lead, Bokuwiec feared, the party was likely to implode.

LiD's Fortunes Suffer from Exotic Excess
--------------


4. (U) The Left and Democrats (LiD),so badly bruised in
2005, have managed to band together and are showing a little
more spirit. Their support has improved since 2005, but does
not seem to top the mid-teens. Former President Kwasniewski
has not helped after two public incidents in the last two
weeks where he appeared to be inebriated at public events.
His explanation that he suffered from a relapse of an "exotic
illness" contracted in the Philippines some years ago has
become instant grist for Polish comedians. Even the LiD
mayor of Zielona Gora quipped that his party's leader was
"exotically afflicted" when he met poloff on October 12.


5. (C) There is a distinct possibility that the results
will be largely a replay of the 2005 elections, with urban
voters showing lopsided support for PO and rural voters
coming out in force for PiS. However, whether it comes in
first or second, PiS appears poised to achieve two of its
goals for this electoral round, namely killing off the
opposition to its right, helping it build PiS as THE
conservative party. Neither SO nor LPR have gained any
traction, and both consistently poll below the parliamentary
threshold of five percent. LPR is fighting back with the
first openly anti-war commercial, criticizing Polish leaders
for Iraq deployments with images of (Polish) flag-draped
caskets. LPR's ad includes images of the Kaczynskis meeting
with President Bush and Israeli leaders under a banner of

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"allies," a possible anti-Semitic reference. LPR came under
widespread criticism for the advertisement. PiS media spin
doctor Adam Bielan said he "hoped the election would finish
the party off."


6. (C) Comment: The next Sejm may well be split between four
parties -- PiS, PO, LiD and the Polish Peasants Party (PSL).
The least tortured coalition pairing would be PO and PSL, but
any variation is possible, and each variation would have
implications for policy issues of concern to the U.S.. If
urban voters opt to stay away from the polls, PiS might
conceivably achieve an outright majority, but that is a
remote possibility, in our estimation. Tusk's last minute
effort to infuse his campaign with some energy may help to
convince urban voters that it is worth their while to get to
the polls. End Comment.
ASHE