RACE TIGHTENS IN CLOSING WEEKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002033

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2022
TAGS: PREL PGOV PL
SUBJECT: RACE TIGHTENS IN CLOSING WEEKS

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Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. With elections in three weeks, the
Kaczynski political machine is humming, effectively
sidelining its main opposition and counting on its strength
in rural areas to deliver what would be an electoral first in
post-communist Poland: re-election. The Kaczynskis have
managed to set the pace and content of the campaign, running
on the same issues that brought them to office in 2005:
fighting corruption, promoting conservative moral values and
playing on the notion that their Law and Justice (PiS) party
alone cares for "average Poles." The opposition is running a
lackluster campaign, and has failed entirely to gain traction
despite the chaotic two years' of Kaczynski rule. The key to
success will be turnout. With the nation neatly polarized
between rural support for PiS and urban support squarely for
the opposition, it will all come down to who bothers to make
it to the polls on October 21. End Summary

Kaczynski Replays 2005 Themes
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2. (U) With less than three weeks to go before the October
21 parliamentary elections, PM Kaczynski has set the tone and
pace of the race, urging Poles to support PiS in its quest
for re-election -- a potential first in post-communist Poland
-- and saying that PiS alone is willing to "liquidate
corruption." PiS campaign materials draw heavily on this
theme, playing off of the corruption scandal involving former
Interior Minister Kaczmarek and the promised detention of
Ryszard Krauze, one of Poland's wealthiest entrepreneurs, who
remains abroad in order to avoid arrest. The Kaczynskis are
counting on their "zero tolerance" campaign to resonate with
their core electorate, notably in the countryside where
distrust of urban elites runs deep.


3. (C) With the elections squarely in his focus, PM
Kaczynski's abrupt refusal on September 21 to invite OSCE
election monitors to Poland plays directly to the Polish
heartland that his government alone will defend Poland
against those who wish to malign it. Despite widespread
criticism both in Poland and abroad, PiS officials lined up
squarely to defend Poland's democratic credentials, and the
government is reluctantly revisiting the issue only after
further contemplation of its potentially damaging precedent
(particularly in the run up to Russian elections in December)
and after the OSCE announced monitoring missions to
Switzerland on the same day as Poland votes.

Tusk is Effectively Sidelined
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4. (C) With great fanfare PM Kaczynski accepted a challenge
to debate former President Aleksandr Kwasniewski, who is
leading the campaign for the reconstituted Left and Democrats
(LiD). That debate will take place this evening, with a
focus on foreign policy. Kaczynski is openly pleased to
replay the 2005 election when PiS soundly beat the
scandal-ridden government led by Kwasniewski's party, the
Democratic Left Alliance (SLD)(which dominates the LiD
coalition) and dismisses Civic Platform (PO) leader Donald
Tusk as "Kwasniewski's assistant." Kaczynski later said he
was willing to debate Tusk, but only on the condition that PO
would disavow in writing any possible governing coalition
with LiD. Tusk continues a bewildering strategy of simply
not responding to the taunts, in fact not saying much of
anything at all for fear of alienating potential voters.
Tusk confidant Slawomir Rybicki told poloff on September 25
that he was worried that PiS had grabbed the momentum and
that PO was facing defeat. The resulting silence from PO
leads many to believe Donald Tusk will in fact manage to
squander PO's consistent lead and lose yet another election.
That plays into PiS strategy that a first place showing for
PiS on October 21 will force PO into a coalition -- and
possibly force Tusk out -- although the Kaczynskis' track
record with coalition partners is poor. Losing but opting to
sit out could force a bruised PO to fall apart. With former
PO leader Jan Rokita's wife, Nelly Rokita, now an advisor to
President Kaczynski and running for parliament from Warsaw's
PiS list, there is little question but that her husband is
likely to follow.

Coalitions of the Willing
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5. (C) Latest polls show that despite its meager effort, PO
is running neck and neck with PiS, at around 30% each, making
virtually any coalition combination possible. If PiS wins,
but cannot woo PO into a grand center-right coalition, then
it may be able to form a majority government with the
Peasants Party (PSL). PSL perenially plays the role of

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potential kingmaker, and has been approached and then
dismissed repeatedly by the Kaczynskis. PO may have more
partners lining up, including PSL, LiD or even a PO-led
coaltion with PiS. Nonetheless, a coalition with the former
Communists may be a bridge too far for many in PO, which was
formed in reaction to the perpetual scandals of the SLD
government. One mid-level PO oriented professional told us
he might not vote for PO because he was so firmly opposed to
a potential PO coalition with the still-corrupt SLD. Wiser
heads in PO recognize that, should PiS win, accepting a
junior position to PiS only promises further coalition
theatrics, akin to what has played out between PiS and the
League of Polish Families (LPR) and Samoobrona (SO).

It all comes down to Turnout
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6. (C) Comment. With the two leading parties evenly
matched, the election will be won on the basis of turnout,
including among expatriate Poles whose votes are clustered
together in one Warsaw district where PM Kaczynski will
square off against PO's Donald Tusk. That race is so
important that campaigning in "Polonia," took President
Kaczynski on a side trip to Chicago last week, and Tusk to
London and Dublin this weekend to woo the younger, and
presumably more PO-oriented potential votes there. Radio
Maryja's notorious founder, Father Rydzyk, has been notably
quiet, although he has featured PiS politicians who hammer on
listeners to support PM Kaczynski. We cannot imagine he will
stay silent long, since Rydzyk will seek to characterize a
possible PiS win as his doing. In contrast, cellphone users
in urban Poland are swapping text messages that urge
urbanites to swipe the identification cards and mohair berets
of their grandmothers, to try to minimize the influence of
Rydzyk's conservative followers. In order to wrest control
from the Kaczynskis, the opposition will have to do more than
send SMS messages; they will have to convince their core
constituents, middle-class, well-educated, urban Poles, to
put down their lattes long enough to get to the polls. End
Comment.
HILLAS