AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ AT ISSUE IN POLAND'S NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002003

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2017
TAGS: MARR PREL PL
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ AT ISSUE IN POLAND'S NATIONAL
ELECTIONS

REF: WARSAW 1916

Classified By: Polcouns Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Polish military participation in Afghanistan
and Iraq has become an issue in the snap elections set for
October 21 (REF A),with leading opposition party Civic
Platform (PO) expressing doubts about continuing deployments.
Defense Minister Aleksander Szczyglo has recommended that
the Afghanistan mission be extended, and President Kaczynski
has told President Bush he would extend the Iraq mission into

2008. Although not a leading campaign theme, with elections
too close to call and the shape of an eventual coalition
dependent on the outcome, the opposition's announced intent
to withdraw from these two deployments must be taken
seriously. However, although PO has positioned itself as
favoring eventual withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, PO
leaders have also repeatedly stated they will honor
previously made commitments, so we should not expect a
reversal of any GOP decision announced before the elections.
END SUMMARY


2. (C) On September 14, PO's shadow foreign minister,
Bronislaw Komorowski, appealed to the President, Prime
Minister, Defense Minister and Foreign Minister to abstain
from making commitments regarding the future of Poland's
foreign deployments. He added that if PO wins the elections
scheduled for October 21, it will withdraw troops (number
unspecified) from Afghanistan and Iraq, while also striving
to give NATO's mission in Afghanistan a more civilian
character. This was not the first time Komorowski and others
in PO have expressed their belief that Poland's deployments
in Iraq and Afghanistan should come to end. However,
Komorowski has separately assured us that PO would keep any
previously made commitments.


3. (C) PO is not alone in its resistance to continued
deployments to Iraq. The Democratic Left Alliance (SLD),
whose leaders committed troops to both countries when it
governed from 2001-2004, and which now ranks third in the
polls, has announced that it intends to pursue negotiations
with allies for the withdrawal of Polish forces from Iraq.
Party Chairman and former DefMin Jerzy Szmajdzinski has
expressed his view that Poland should withdraw from Iraq in
order to sustain operations in Afghanistan. (While Defense
Minister, Szmajdzinski repeatedly stated during the 2005
election campaign that Poland should end its mission in Iraq,
but he left the door open for the new government to continue
operations.) On August 23rd, in a rebuke of the current
government's policies, Komorowski and Szmajdzinski appeared
together to publicly accuse DefMin Szczyglo of concealing
civilian casualties inflicted by fire from Polish forces in
Afghanistan.


4. (C) Current opinion polls show PO and PiS running
neck-and-neck, each with about 30% support, give or take a
few points, depending on the poll. This very much resembles
the situation in October 2005, when PiS won an upset victory
over PO. after having trailed slightly in opinion polls
throughout the campaign. This year, while PO has led most
opinion polls for many months, victory is by no means
certain, and there is virtually no chance of either party
gaining a majority. An eventual coalition will be determined
by who comes out on top: if PiS wins, there will likely be
no other possible partner besides PO (except a fracturing of
PO--PiS's goal). If PO comes in first, it could form a
coalition with either PiS or SLD. There is the possibility
that PO could win and follow through on its promise to scale
back deployments, especially if it makes a coalition with
SLD-dominated Left and Democratic (LiD) coalition. Changes
in the Afghan deployment are less likely than in the Iraq
mission.

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The Afghan Deployment
--------------


5. (C) The Polish government's internal mandate for the
Afghanistan mission expires on October 15, six days before
the scheduled election. Hence, the governing PiS party will
likely have to make a decision on that deployment before the
elections. DefMin Szczyglo has, as of September 14,
recommended that the Council of Ministers advise the
President (who holds decision-making authority) to stay on in
Afghanistan for another year with the current 1200 troops.
PiS can deflect political fallout over extending in
Afghanistan by citing NATO obligations. As already
mentioned, PO would not reverse this call.

WARSAW 00002003 002 OF 002



--------------
The Iraq Deployment
--------------


6. (C) Iraq is more complicated. The Polish government's
internal political mandate for the Iraq deployment expires on
December 31. The Iraq mission lacks NATO cover and is thus
harder to sustain in the face of adverse public opinion. The
governing PiS party may want to reduce the negative domestic
political consequences of extending in Iraq by deferring a
decision until after the October 21 elections. If it does
this, and PO defeats PiS, then PO might keep its promise to
withdraw from Iraq. However, PO leaders have left the extent
and timing of any withdrawal undefined. More importantly,
they have repeatedly said they would honor any commitments
made by the previous government and behave as a responsible
ally.

-------------- --------------
Change Would be Consulted with Allies
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Poland's major political parties (PiS, PO, and SLD)
have remained constant on their intent to honor all
previously made commitments and to be responsible partners of
the U.S. and NATO. We expect Poland to review its
deployments from that perspective. The recent calls for a
change in deployments must be taken seriously as they reflect
broad sentiment in Poland. We expect that any change in
foreign deployments that might accompany an opposition
electoral victory would be closely consulted with us and
executed in a responsible way.
HILLAS