AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ AT ISSUE IN POLAND'S NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 002003 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2017 TAGS: MARR PREL PL SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ AT ISSUE IN POLAND'S NATIONAL ELECTIONS REF: WARSAW 1916 Classified By: Polcouns Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Polish military participation in Afghanistan and Iraq has become an issue in the snap elections set for October 21 (REF A),with leading opposition party Civic Platform (PO) expressing doubts about continuing deployments. Defense Minister Aleksander Szczyglo has recommended that the Afghanistan mission be extended, and President Kaczynski has told President Bush he would extend the Iraq mission into ¶2008. Although not a leading campaign theme, with elections too close to call and the shape of an eventual coalition dependent on the outcome, the opposition's announced intent to withdraw from these two deployments must be taken seriously. However, although PO has positioned itself as favoring eventual withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, PO leaders have also repeatedly stated they will honor previously made commitments, so we should not expect a reversal of any GOP decision announced before the elections. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) On September 14, PO's shadow foreign minister, Bronislaw Komorowski, appealed to the President, Prime Minister, Defense Minister and Foreign Minister to abstain from making commitments regarding the future of Poland's foreign deployments. He added that if PO wins the elections scheduled for October 21, it will withdraw troops (number unspecified) from Afghanistan and Iraq, while also striving to give NATO's mission in Afghanistan a more civilian character. This was not the first time Komorowski and others in PO have expressed their belief that Poland's deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan should come to end. However, Komorowski has separately assured us that PO would keep any previously made commitments. ¶3. (C) PO is not alone in its resistance to continued deployments to Iraq. The Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), whose leaders committed troops to both countries when it governed from 2001-2004, and which now ranks third in the polls, has announced that it intends to pursue negotiations with allies for the withdrawal of Polish forces from Iraq. Party Chairman and former DefMin Jerzy Szmajdzinski has expressed his view that Poland should withdraw from Iraq in order to sustain operations in Afghanistan. (While Defense Minister, Szmajdzinski repeatedly stated during the 2005 ;election campaign that Poland should end its mission in Iraq, but he left the door open for the new government to continue operations.) On August 23rd, in a rebuke of the current government's policies, Komorowski and Szmajdzinski appeared together to publicly accuse DefMin Szczyglo of concealing civilian casualties inflicted by fire from Polish forces in Afghanistan. ¶4. (C) Current opinion polls show PO and PiS running neck-and-neck, each with about 30% support, give or take a few points, depending on the poll. This very much resembles the situation in October 2005, when PiS won an upset victory over PO. after having trailed slightly in opinion polls throughout the campaign. This year, while PO has led most opinion polls for many months, victory is by no means certain, and there is virtually no chance of either party gaining a majority. An eventual coalition will be determined by who comes out on top: if PiS wins, there will likely be no other possible partner besides PO (except a fracturing of PO--PiS's goal). If PO comes in first, it could form a coalition with either PiS or SLD. There is the possibility that PO could win and follow through on its promise to scale back deployments, especially if it makes a coalition with SLD-dominated Left and Democratic (LiD) coalition. Changes in the Afghan deployment are less likely than in the Iraq mission. -------------- The Afghan Deployment -------------- ¶5. (C) The Polish government's internal mandate for the Afghanistan mission expires on October 15, six days before the scheduled election. Hence, the governing PiS party will likely have to make a decision on that deployment before the elections. DefMin Szczyglo has, as of September 14, recommended that the Council of Ministers advise the President (who holds decision-making authority) to stay on in Afghanistan for another year with the current 1200 troops. PiS can deflect political fallout over extending in Afghanistan by citing NATO obligations. As already mentioned, PO would not reverse this call. WARSAW 00002003 002 OF 002 -------------- The Iraq Deployment -------------- ¶6. (C) Iraq is more complicated. The Polish government's internal political mandate for the Iraq deployment expires on December 31. The Iraq mission lacks NATO cover and is thus harder to sustain in the face of adverse public opinion. The governing PiS party may want to reduce the negative domestic political consequences of extending in Iraq by deferring a decision until after the October 21 elections. If it does this, and PO defeats PiS, then PO might keep its promise to withdraw from Iraq. However, PO leaders have left the extent and timing of any withdrawal undefined. More importantly, they have repeatedly said they would honor any commitments made by the previous government and behave as a responsible ally. -------------- -------------- Change Would be Consulted with Allies -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Poland's major political parties (PiS, PO, and SLD) have remained constant on their intent to honor all previously made commitments and to be responsible partners of the U.S. and NATO. We expect Poland to review its deployments from that perspective. The recent calls for a change in deployments must be taken seriously as they reflect broad sentiment in Poland. We expect that any change in foreign deployments that might accompany an opposition electoral victory would be closely consulted with us and executed in a responsible way. HILLAS