RUMORS FLY AS CALENDAR IS SET FOR DISSOLVING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 001826

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2022
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MASS PL
SUBJECT: RUMORS FLY AS CALENDAR IS SET FOR DISSOLVING
PARLIAMENT

REF: WARSAW 1760 AND PREVIOUS

WARSAW 00001826 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Political turmoil continues in Poland as
three separate motions for dissolving parliament are under
consideration. Sejm Marshall Ludwik Dorn set the vote on
dissolution for September 7. With a razor thin majority, the
motion may pass, setting the stage for October elections;
alternatively, a more cumbersome three-step process may be
undertaken, which would lead to elections in November. With
rumors flying, a Presidential Chancellery official told
Charge that PM Kaczynski is trying to craft a new solution to
avoid elections outright. With respect to our bilateral
priorities, we have started to see opposition politicians
question the government's actions in Afghanistan for domestic
political gain. On August 23 opposition leaders criticized
Minister of Defense Szczyglo's actions in the case of
civilian deaths in Afghanistan. End Summary.

Dissolution Vote Set for September 7
--------------


2. (U) Sejm Marshall and Kaczynski confidante Ludwik Dorn
pressed forward with plans for the Polish parliament to vote
on its self-dissolution during its next session, on Friday,
September 7. With the defection of four Samoobrona (SO)
deputies, two to the Law and Justice (PiS) parliamentary
caucus and two to the Polish Peasants Party (PSL),Dorn can
count on a razor thin majority of 310 votes (with 307
required) if PiS, its rival Civic Platform (PO),and PSL all
support the motion. If the self-dissolution measure passes,
elections could be held on October 21. If it fails, PM
Kaczynski has vowed to resign, setting in motion a
complicated three-step process laid out by the Polish
constitution whereby in turn the President, the Sejm, and the
President again propose candidates for prime minister. If no
candidate receives a vote of confidence, elections would be
set for November.


3. (SBU) Dorn used the timing of the self-dissolution
measure to squash efforts by the opposition Democratic Left
Alliance (SLD) to form two parliamentary investigatory
committees (reftels). PiS officials naturally worry that the
opposition will use the investigative committees to bash
PiS--much as PiS and PO used such commissions against the SLD
government. Adding to their concerns, ousted Interior
Minister Janusz Kaczmarek continued an ugly and very public
feud with the Kaczynskis and his former patron, Minister of
Justice Zbigniew Ziobro. In a closed meeting with the Sejm's
Special Services Committee on August 22, Kaczmarek said the
Kaczynski government was targeting journalists, private media
owners and a wide range of politicians and their families for
investigation and surveillance. While some commentators have
cast doubt on Kaczmarek's statements, wondering why he came
forward only after being fired, we have heard from
mid-to-senior level professionals that Ziobro willingly used
police and special services for political purposes.


4. (SBU) Dorn wants to complete some higher priority
legislative initiatives before a dissolution motion could be
considered, including measures relating to teachers'
retirement funds, lifting the immunity of former SO deputy
Stanislaw Lyzwinski, the central figure in the sordid 2006
"sex affair," and completing the necessary legislative steps
to prepare Poland's accession to the Schengen agreement. But
he has taken several concrete steps in the dissolution
process. On August 23, PiS put forward its own motion of
self-dissolution, joining earlier motions introduced by SLD
and PO. PiS deputies would be hard pressed to vote in favor
of the opposition's motions for self-dissolution which cite
their own party's incompetence in governing; the motion also
may have been meant as a signal to PO that PiS really does
mean to proceed with elections.

Is the Dissolution Vote Set for September 7?
--------------


5. (C) Despite Dorn's proclamation August 21 that he will be
the "liquidator" of this Sejm, and the clear steps taken to
dissolve the parliament, PiS officials are making
contradictory statements about the timing of the
self-dissolution vote, raising speculation about possible
deals being hatched behind the scenes. Polish media have
reported a wide range of rumors that PiS is trying to forge a
post-election governing arrangement with PO, or
alternatively, pressing LPR and SO backbenchers to go back
into coalition with PiS after elections. PO Deputy Slawomir
Rybicki told poloff August 24 that other plans were being
discussed secretly which would result in the self-dissolution

WARSAW 00001826 002.2 OF 002


vote being held earlier. A senior official (though not a
Kaczynski insider) in the President's Chancellery told the
Charge on August 23 that the Kaczynskis are still trying to
avoid elections by offering the Prime Ministership to PO
leader Jan Rokita and splitting off enough PO deputies to
create a majority. (Note: PiS has long talked of efforts to
split PO and bring Rokita and others over to PiS.)


6. (C) As elections loom, we may have seen the first sign of
how the opposition will use foreign policy--in this case
foreign troop depoyments--to its advantage. On August 23
PO's Bronislaw Komorowski and SLD's Jerzy Szmajdzinski, both
former Ministers of Defense, held a joint press conference to
blast MOD Aleksander Szczyglo, accusing him of concealing
information on Polish troops' involvement in a mid-August
attack which resulted in the death of five Afghan civilians.
Szmajdzinski and Komorowski said the incident revealed the
Polish troops' lack of preparedness. In response to the
charges, Szczyglo accused them of a "cynical power game."
Other commentators also criticized the two for taking
political advantage of the troops, but the opposition will
likely continue to use the issue if it proves advantageous.


7. (C) Comment: With respect to the self-dissolution
measure, we are confident that it could pass. PO's shadow
Foreign Minister Bronislaw Komorowski told the DCM on August
22 that SLD would vote in favor of dissolution, despite
public hedging from SLD officials. SLD has the most to gain
from elections, having rebounded from their dismal showing in

2005. But the Kaczynskis have a long history of threatening
elections and then crafting a solution to avoid them. If PM
Kaczynski believes that the moment is not sufficiently
propitious, then he may yet yank a rabbit out of his hat to
avoid a damaging loss. End Comment.



HILLAS