RUMORS FLY AS CALENDAR IS SET FOR DISSOLVING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 001826 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2022 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MASS PL SUBJECT: RUMORS FLY AS CALENDAR IS SET FOR DISSOLVING PARLIAMENT REF: WARSAW 1760 AND PREVIOUS WARSAW 00001826 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Political turmoil continues in Poland as three separate motions for dissolving parliament are under consideration. Sejm Marshall Ludwik Dorn set the vote on dissolution for September 7. With a razor thin majority, the motion may pass, setting the stage for October elections; alternatively, a more cumbersome three-step process may be undertaken, which would lead to elections in November. With rumors flying, a Presidential Chancellery official told Charge that PM Kaczynski is trying to craft a new solution to avoid elections outright. With respect to our bilateral priorities, we have started to see opposition politicians question the government's actions in Afghanistan for domestic political gain. On August 23 opposition leaders criticized Minister of Defense Szczyglo's actions in the case of civilian deaths in Afghanistan. End Summary. Dissolution Vote Set for September 7 -------------- ¶2. (U) Sejm Marshall and Kaczynski confidante Ludwik Dorn pressed forward with plans for the Polish parliament to vote on its self-dissolution during its next session, on Friday, September 7. With the defection of four Samoobrona (SO) deputies, two to the Law and Justice (PiS) parliamentary caucus and two to the Polish Peasants Party (PSL),Dorn can count on a razor thin majority of 310 votes (with 307 required) if PiS, its rival Civic Platform (PO),and PSL all support the motion. If the self-dissolution measure passes, elections could be held on October 21. If it fails, PM Kaczynski has vowed to resign, setting in motion a complicated three-step process laid out by the Polish constitution whereby in turn the President, the Sejm, and the President again propose candidates for prime minister. If no candidate receives a vote of confidence, elections would be set for November. ¶3. (SBU) Dorn used the timing of the self-dissolution measure to squash efforts by the opposition Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) to form two parliamentary investigatory committees (reftels). PiS officials naturally worry that the opposition will use the investigative committees to bash PiS--much as PiS and PO used such commissions against the SLD 
government. Adding to their concerns, ousted Interior Minister Janusz Kaczmarek continued an ugly and very public feud with the Kaczynskis and his former patron, Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro. In a closed meeting with the Sejm's Special Services Committee on August 22, Kaczmarek said the Kaczynski government was targeting journalists, private media owners and a wide range of politicians and their families for investigation and surveillance. While some commentators have cast doubt on Kaczmarek's statements, wondering why he came forward only after being fired, we have heard from mid-to-senior level professionals that Ziobro willingly used police and special services for political purposes. ¶4. (SBU) Dorn wants to complete some higher priority legislative initiatives before a dissolution motion could be considered, including measures relating to teachers' retirement funds, lifting the immunity of former SO deputy Stanislaw Lyzwinski, the central figure in the sordid 2006 "sex affair," and completing the necessary legislative steps to prepare Poland's accession to the Schengen agreement. But he has taken several concrete steps in the dissolution process. On August 23, PiS put forward its own motion of self-dissolution, joining earlier motions introduced by SLD and PO. PiS deputies would be hard pressed to vote in favor of the opposition's motions for self-dissolution which cite their own party's incompetence in governing; the motion also may have been meant as a signal to PO that PiS really does mean to proceed with elections. Is the Dissolution Vote Set for September 7? -------------- ¶5. (C) Despite Dorn's proclamation August 21 that he will be the "liquidator" of this Sejm, and the clear steps taken to dissolve the parliament, PiS officials are making contradictory statements about the timing of the self-dissolution vote, raising speculation about possible deals being hatched behind the scenes. Polish media have reported a wide range of rumors that PiS is trying to forge a post-election governing arrangement with PO, or alternatively, pressing LPR and SO backbenchers to go back into coalition with PiS after elections. PO Deputy Slawomir Rybicki told poloff August 24 that other plans were being discussed secretly which would result in the self-dissolution WARSAW 00001826 002.2 OF 002 vote being held earlier. A senior official (though not a Kaczynski insider) in the President's Chancellery told the Charge on August 23 that the Kaczynskis are still trying to avoid elections by offering the Prime Ministership to PO leader Jan Rokita and splitting off enough PO deputies to create a majority. (Note: PiS has long talked of efforts to split PO and bring Rokita and others over to PiS.) ¶6. (C) As elections loom, we may have seen the first sign of how the opposition will use foreign policy--in this case foreign troop depoyments--to its advantage. On August 23 PO's Bronislaw Komorowski and SLD's Jerzy Szmajdzinski, both former Ministers of Defense, held a joint press conference to blast MOD Aleksander Szczyglo, accusing him of concealing information on Polish troops' involvement in a mid-August attack which resulted in the death of five Afghan civilians. Szmajdzinski and Komorowski said the incident revealed the Polish troops' lack of preparedness. In response to the charges, Szczyglo accused them of a "cynical power game." Other commentators also criticized the two for taking political advantage of the troops, but the opposition will likely continue to use the issue if it proves advantageous. ¶7. (C) Comment: With respect to the self-dissolution measure, we are confident that it could pass. PO's shadow Foreign Minister Bronislaw Komorowski told the DCM on August 22 that SLD would vote in favor of dissolution, despite public hedging from SLD officials. SLD has the most to gain from elections, having rebounded from their dismal showing in ¶2005. But the Kaczynskis have a long history of threatening elections and then crafting a solution to avoid them. If PM Kaczynski believes that the moment is not sufficiently propitious, then he may yet yank a rabbit out of his hat to avoid a damaging loss. End Comment. HILLAS