KACZYNSKIS END TURBULENT COALITION AND PREDICT

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 001755 SIPDIS SIPDIS PM/SNA FOR JANZEN; EUR/NCE FOR PUTNEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PL SUBJECT: KACZYNSKIS END TURBULENT COALITION AND PREDICT EARLY ELECTIONS. REF: WARSAW 1745 Classified By: Political Counselor Mary Curtin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) President Lech Kaczynski and his brother Prime Minister Jarek Kaczynski put an end August 13 to a turbulent 15-month coalition government, saying early elections were inevitable and would take place toward the end of October. Prime Minister Kaczynski fired all ministers from the League of Polish Families (LPR) and Self-Defense (SO) parties, replacing them with PiS members. Gone are Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Education Roman Giertych, plus the ministers of fisheries, of construction, and of labor. Numerous other deputy minister level officials from the two parties have also been dismissed. SO head Andrzej Lepper was fired as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Agriculture in July, touching off the latest crisis in the drama-ridden coalition. ¶2. (U) PM Kaczynski announced the move on August 11, after the Law and Justice (PiS) Political Committee met and endorsed early elections, leaving the final decision and timing to the Prime Minister. Kaczynski reiterated August 13, after the swearing in the new ministers, that the most significant consequence of the ending of the coalition would be a shortened term for the current Sejm and early elections. According to the press, Kaczynski will bring a motion of self-dissolution before the Sejm in September, with a plan for elections to be held on October 21. The largest opposition party, Civic Platform (PO),supports the move. Other parties, who stand to lose seats in any new election, are opposed. Heated accusations are flying from LPR and SO, but also from post-communist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) about PiS's abuses of power and undemocratic means, with calls for investigations of a number of legal matters in particular. ¶3. (C) Elections would seem to be more likely now than at any time since PiS made a come-from-behind win in the 2005 parliamentary elections. Until today's move, many had seen the threat of dissolving the coalition as yet one more effort by the Kaczynskis to rein in their unruly coalition partners, but it would seem to be nearly impossible for either LPR or SO to go back into coalition with PiS. However, until the elections are actually set there are still a number of possibilities that would stave them off. PiS could simply try to continue with a minority government. It will almost certainly continue to try to bring over individual members of SO and, to a lesser extent, LPR, to build toward a larger minority and weaken those parties. It could renew efforts to split PO or to bring the Polish Peasants Party (PSL) into a coalition. ¶4. (C) Comment: In a conversation the evening of August 10 the Foreign Minister assured us that the next round of Missile Defense negotiations would not be affected by early elections. However, Missile Defense and other foreign policy issues of concern to the U.S. could become an issue in election campaigns, especially as SO and LPR attempt to secure their place in a new Sejm. End Comment. ASHE