KACZYNSKIS END TURBULENT COALITION AND PREDICT

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 001755

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PM/SNA FOR JANZEN; EUR/NCE FOR PUTNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PL
SUBJECT: KACZYNSKIS END TURBULENT COALITION AND PREDICT
EARLY ELECTIONS.

REF: WARSAW 1745

Classified By: Political Counselor Mary Curtin for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)


1. (SBU) President Lech Kaczynski and his brother Prime
Minister Jarek Kaczynski put an end August 13 to a turbulent
15-month coalition government, saying early elections were
inevitable and would take place toward the end of October.
Prime Minister Kaczynski fired all ministers from the League
of Polish Families (LPR) and Self-Defense (SO) parties,
replacing them with PiS members. Gone are Deputy Prime
Minister and Minister of Education Roman Giertych, plus the
ministers of fisheries, of construction, and of labor.
Numerous other deputy minister level officials from the two
parties have also been dismissed. SO head Andrzej Lepper was
fired as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Agriculture in
July, touching off the latest crisis in the drama-ridden
coalition.


2. (U) PM Kaczynski announced the move on August 11, after
the Law and Justice (PiS) Political Committee met and
endorsed early elections, leaving the final decision and
timing to the Prime Minister. Kaczynski reiterated August
13, after the swearing in the new ministers, that the most
significant consequence of the ending of the coalition would
be a shortened term for the current Sejm and early elections.
According to the press, Kaczynski will bring a motion of
self-dissolution before the Sejm in September, with a plan
for elections to be held on October 21. The largest
opposition party, Civic Platform (PO),supports the move.
Other parties, who stand to lose seats in any new election,
are opposed. Heated accusations are flying from LPR and SO,
but also from post-communist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD)
about PiS's abuses of power and undemocratic means, with
calls for investigations of a number of legal matters in
particular.


3. (C) Elections would seem to be more likely now than at
any time since PiS made a come-from-behind win in the 2005
parliamentary elections. Until today's move, many had seen
the threat of dissolving the coalition as yet one more effort
by the Kaczynskis to rein in their unruly coalition partners,
but it would seem to be nearly impossible for either LPR or
SO to go back into coalition with PiS. However, until the
elections are actually set there are still a number of
possibilities that would stave them off. PiS could simply
try to continue with a minority government. It will almost
certainly continue to try to bring over individual members of
SO and, to a lesser extent, LPR, to build toward a larger
minority and weaken those parties. It could renew efforts to
split PO or to bring the Polish Peasants Party (PSL) into a
coalition.


4. (C) Comment: In a conversation the evening of August 10
the Foreign Minister assured us that the next round of
Missile Defense negotiations would not be affected by early
elections. However, Missile Defense and other foreign policy
issues of concern to the U.S. could become an issue in
election campaigns, especially as SO and LPR attempt to
secure their place in a new Sejm. End Comment.
ASHE