PIS INSIDER SAYS ELECTIONS "PROBABLE" AFTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 001745

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2022
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PL
SUBJECT: PIS INSIDER SAYS ELECTIONS "PROBABLE" AFTER
PRESIDENT'S MEETING WITH OPPOSITION, BUT NO CONCRETE STEPS
YET.

REF: WARSAW 1731

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Ken Hillas, for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) In the wake of the August 8 firing of Interior
Minister Janusz Kaczmarek, part of the fallout of the July
firing of Deputy Prime Minister Andrzej Lepper, there is once
again serious talk of early elections, but there has yet to
be any concrete action to set the process in motion. As
experience has shown, threats by PiS leaders regarding early
elections need to be taken with a grain of salt. While there
is general agreement on foreign policy issues among the major
parties (Law and Justice (PiS),Civic Platform (PO),and
Democratic Left Alliance (SLD),there is broad popular
opposition to continued involvement in Iraq, and other
parties could attempt to make this and other issues part of
an election campaign. End Summary


2. (C) As Kaczmarek and Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro
duked it out in public throughout the day on August 9
(reftel),President Lech Kaczynski held a four hour meeting
with Civic Platform (PO) opposition leader Donald Tusk and
emerged agreeing that autumn 2007 elections were
"unavoidable," according to public statements by Kaczynski's
media advisor Michal Kaminski. During an August 10 meeting,
Law and Justice (PiS) insider Adam Lipinski, who is Chief of
the Prime Minister's cabinet, told Charge that elections were
"probable," but made clear it was the Prime Minister who
would decide. If there were to be elections, they would be
held quickly, he said, because if the process is drawn out,
the opposition would just use the time to attack PiS.


3. (SBU) That said, there have been no concrete steps taken
toward elections, leaving open many possibilities. The
Kaczynskis could once again be using the threat of elections
to bring their unruly coalition partners into line. Roman
Giertych, head of the League of Polish Families (LPR),has
repeatedly made clear he does not want early elections, and
for good reason. If his party were to run alone it faces the
real possibility of not meeting the five percent threshold to
win parliamentary seats. Andrzej Lepper, head of the
populist Self-Defense (SO) also likely does not want
elections, and has joined Giertych in calling for PM
Kaczynski to resign. The Left and Democracy (LiD) grouping,
led by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) has called for a
constructive vote of no confidence, a difficult mechanism
that would require all the opposition parties plus SO to come
to agreement on a candidate for Prime Minister and then
achieve a two-thirds vote in the Sejm, an unlikely scenario.


4. (C) If the Kaczynskis decide to seek early elections,
they will likely use the mechanism of having the Sejm
dissolve itself, an easier option, but one that requires PO's
and PiS's support to achieve the required two-thirds
majority. Lipinski said they are looking at the date of
October 21. Early elections are, of course, a risk for PiS.
Most opinion polls show the party lagging behind PO. Based
on its come-from-behind win in 2005, PiS strategists are
disdainful of opinion polls and confident of their campaign
skills. They acknowledge the risk, but believe the current
chaos makes governing difficult.


5. (C) Comment: Each time over the past two years that the
Kaczynskis have reached this point, they have decided to
avoid elections and have managed to patch the coalition back
together. There are many risks for PiS in going to
elections, and not a few implications for the U.S. When
asked, Lipinski said he thought the broad agreement with PO
on foreign policy issues meant that elections would have no
immediate impact on Missile Defense negotiations or other
foreign policy priorities. However, it could become an issue
in any campaign, which poses risks. Predictions of early
elections should be taken with a grain of salt until they
actually materialize. End Comment.
HILLAS