WITH COALITION IN TATTERS AFTER ONE YEAR OF PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 001664

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2022
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR PL
SUBJECT: WITH COALITION IN TATTERS AFTER ONE YEAR OF PM
KACZYNSKI, MANY SEE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY
ELECTIONS

REF: WARSAW 1558 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Kenneth Hillas for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: With his coalition in tatters Prime
Minister Jarek Kaczynski on July 27 pulled back -- at least
for the moment -- from calling early elections. Many PiS
leaders discount opinion polls and believe they could once
again come out ahead in elections. More importantly,
Kaczynski may believe that he is positioned to eliminate his
coalition allies, Samoobrona (SO) and the League of Polish
Families (LPR) -- now "united" in an unlikely and unstable
new party (League and Self-Defense or LiS) -- from a new
parliament and move toward his long-term goal of
consolidating PiS's position as the dominant party on the
right. Calling early elections is a high risk strategy, and
PiS may decide to back down after dealing serious blows to
its partners. If they occur, early elections could have
significant implications for U.S. policy, especially with
regard to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Missile Defense, even if
those issues are not primary or determinative campaign
themes. The poisoned atmosphere within the coalition -- SO
leader Lepper remains under investigation for corruption --
augers continued political instability absent early
elections. End Summary.

After a Year as PM, Kaczynski Starts
Sounding Out Possible Election Themes
--------------


2. (SBU) With conflict wrecking his government coalition and
his personal polling numbers abysmal, PM Kaczynski proclaimed
on the July 19 anniversary of his first year in office that
"Poland has never had a better government." Kaczynski took
credit for Poland's stellar economic performance and boasted
of his government's efforts to root out corruption. Most
Poles disagree. An opinion poll released the following day
showed Poles rating Kaczynski's performance as the worst
since 1989, when the first post-Communist government was
elected. The best was Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, who
immediately preceded Kaczynski, and was hand-picked by him as
a quiet expert who would not compete for the political
limelight. When his popularity and image as an effective
leader grew, Kaczynski ousted him. Most Poles do not credit
the government with the strength of the economy. Before
being appointed Media Director at the Presidential
Chancellery, Michal Kaminski told Poloff that his new job
would be to convince Poles to connect the dots between
Poland's strong economic performance and the Kaczynski's.
The Kaczynski's efforts to fight corruption (for which they
are credited) resonate with a large segment of the
population.


3. (C) While we have seen enough artful dodging before to
make any solid predictions difficult, there are indications
that PM Kaczynski intends to call for snap elections,
possibly this fall. The PM promised a public announcement on
July 27 after conservative daily Dziennik on July 25 laid out
a supposed calendar for elections, speculating that the PM
would call for the Sejm to be dissolved at its next meeting
on August 22, leading to September 30 elections. Many
factors seemed to support the speculation. The coalition has
been constantly troublesome or embarrassing, and PiS has not
been able to use it to achieve their top goal of
constitutional reform to create what they call the "Fourth
Republic." On July 9 Deputy PM and SO leader Andrzej Lepper
was put under investigation for corruption and suspended from
government. PiS believes its support is historically
underrepresented by polls (as was true running up to the 2005
elections),and can fare no worse than it did last time.
Presidential media advisor Michal Kaminski told Charge and
Poloff July 27 that PiS could still win an election now.
Indeed, PiS's numbers have stayed remarkably steady despite
low rankings for the Kaczynskis.


4. (C) The Kaczynskis have two competing goals--to build the
so-called "Fourth Republic" and to build PiS into a lasting
conservative political force. To do the former they need to
be in government, but to do the latter they plan to destroy
and devour other conservative parties--particularly their
coalition partners SO and LPR. Early elections could
dramatically reduce or even eliminate the two parties'
presence in the Sejm, which some would consider a risk worth
taking. Others say the Kaczynskis are now primarily focused
on Lech Kaczynski's re-election campaign in 2010, and feel he
would be better positioned to win with PiS not in government.
PiS leaders may not have a better opportunity than now to
succeed in parliamentary elections.

A Fox in the Ducks' House

WARSAW 00001664 002 OF 002


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5. (SBU) On his second try to decapitate and split SO,
Kaczynski has been more successful. Under the rubric of
efforts to "fight pathologies" and promote "zero tolerance"
for corruption, Kaczynski dumped Andrzej Lepper, his Deputy
PM and Minister of Agriculture, after Lepper was implicated
in a corruption scandal involving bribes for rezoning
agricultural land (reftels). Lepper's normally sycophantic
followers forced him to reverse his decision to take the
party out of the coalition. One-time Lepper confidante
Ryszard Czarnecky told Poloff July 27 that he and others
would stay in the coalition, leaving Lepper hanging.
Kaczynski has also renewed his attacks on LPR leader
Giertych, rescinding Giertych's much-criticized publication
of a highly nationalistic required reading list for schools.


6. (SBU) Lepper and Giertych added a surprising new twist to
the already bizarre unfolding political drama with their
announcement on July 16 that SO and LPR would merge, creating
a new party called "LiS," or "Fox," for "Liga i Samoobrona"
(League and Self Defense). Lepper declared the new party
would be "as cunning as a fox." A most improbable union,
bound only by both leaders' desires to survive possible snap
elections, it is a way for Lepper to quiet the revolt within
his party. For Giertych, whose party was consistently
polling well below the parliamentary threshold, it is a
question of political survival. The two leaders are already
fighting over primacy.


7. (SBU) LiS is desperate to remain in the government
(although Lepper himself is out). The atmosphere inside the
coalition has become poisonous and bombastic statements are
the order of the day. Giertych announced July 21 that he was
going on vacation, threatened to sue the PM, and indicated he
did not expect to return to his ministerial position
afterwards. Lepper has leveled highly personal criticism of
PM Kaczynski over the land rezoning scandal and over the
government's efforts to lift the parliamentary immunity of
former SO deputy Stanislaw Lyzwinski, the primary antagonist
in a sordid paternity suit and sex-for-work scandal.

Rudderless Opposition
Continues to Sit Back and Wait
--------------


8. (C) Meanwhile, the opposition, which the PM has charged is
Satanically influenced and bent on aggressively opposing any
and all of the government's agenda, has been strangely
silent, sitting on the sidelines for months as the coalition
theatrics play out. PO parliamentarian Pawel Spiewak
confided to poloff that PO leader Donald Tusk had made the
political calculation that saying anything, on any subject,
risked alienating a portion of the electorate, and that PO's
consistently higher polling numbers bore out the view that PO
will prevail simply because of the self-destructive
tendencies of the current government. PO regularly polls
higher than PiS in opinion surveys.

Elections Still a Risk for PiS
--------------


9. (C) Despite the indications that PiS is more serious
about elections this time, there are still factors militating
against them. Kaczynski's failure to make an announcement
this week is one indicator. Media advisor Kaminski told us
July 27 that PiS still wants to find a "stable majority," but
said it is up to LPR and SO to provide that. PiS
back-benchers naturally fear putting their jobs at risk.
That is even more the case in SO and LPR.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Comment: The Kaczynskis' square focus is on
domestic politics, and when (or whether) to call elections so
as to maximize their political advantage. If held, elections
would almost certainly revolve around domestic issues, but
would also have serious implications for U.S. policy goals if
there are elections this fall. Lepper has made clear he will
make opposition to Poland's presence in Iraq and Afghanistan,
and to Missile Defense, part of his campaign. We do not
think he will get much traction, but it will put the issues
on the table. Even if these issues are not dominant or
determinative, a change of government would have an impact.
The momentum on MD negotiations could be lessened, and a PO
government would likely take a strong quid pro quo approach
to the negotiations. On Iraq and Afghanistan, a new
government might not support President Kaczynski's pledge to
keep troops deployed through 2008. End Comment.
HILLAS