GIERTYCH ATTACKS ON SOCIAL ISSUES, BUT KACZYNSKIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 001398 SIPDIS SIPDIS INR/EUC FOR STOLTENBERG EUR/NCE FOR PUTNEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR PL SUBJECT: GIERTYCH ATTACKS ON SOCIAL ISSUES, BUT KACZYNSKIS HOLD GROUND WARSAW 00001398 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4b and d ¶1. (U) Summary. The far-right Catholic nationalist League of Polish Families (LPR) party has been using controversial wedge issues such as abortion and gay rights in an attempt to re-capture the support of voters who largely chose Law and Justice (PiS) in the 2005 election. But LPR head Roman Giertych's aggressive rhetoric and appeal to tradition and nationalism have not had the desired effect, and have served to hurt Poland's image within the EU on many social issues, providing PiS leaders Jaroslaw and Lech Kaczynski (president and prime minister, respectively),with the opportunity to appear as the voice of reason. The inflammatory words and ultra-conservative policy initiatives have not gotten far and have not created the hoped for increase of support from conservative voters, as LPR consistently polls below the election threshold. In addition, although Giertych continues to seek broader influence, PiS has kept LPR's operating sphere confined to domestic policy, and does not intend to allow LPR (or fellow junior partner Self-Defense--SO) into the ministries of foreign affairs, defense, or interior. End Summary Wedge Issues: Abortion, Homosexuals, Nationalism, Teletubbies -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Over the last several months LPR Chairman Roman Giertych, who is also a Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Education, has used social wedge issues, specifically abortion, the status of homosexuals, and old-fashioned nationalism in an attempt to re-capture far-right voters (including influential Radio Maryja chief Father Rydzyk) many of whom deserted LPR and voted for PiS in the 2005 elections. Giertych has managed for the past year since joining the government to implant his party loyalists in a number of domestic ministries and tried to use the Ministry of Education to advance his agenda, including by floating a number of initiatives that would reshape primary and secondary education curricula to match his nationalistic outlook. He has caused enormous controversy and push-back from teachers and parents (and even some leading PiS figures including Sejm Speaker Ludwig Dorn),but has been undercut on 
several occasions by the Prime Minister, most recently when his proposed required reading list dropped several leading authors and including some controversial nationalists. ¶3. (U) In the first half of 2007 Giertych has focused on abortion and gay rights, both subjects on which Poles are generally conservative, in failed attempts to boost his party's ratings. He launched the opening salvo at a meeting of EU education ministers in Heidelberg, Germany in March, where he called for an EU-wide ban on abortion and criticized the EU's tolerance of "homosexual propaganda." PM Jaroslaw Kaczynski quickly denounced these statements, claiming that they did not represent the GOP. ¶4. (U) Buoyed by a short term bump to seven percent in the opinion polls (five percent is the current threshold for parliamentary seats),Giertych and LPR number two, Vice Minister of Education Miroslaw Orzechowski introduced draft legislation that prescribed fines and jail time for teachers or school administrators who allow gay rights organizations to speak with pupils on tolerance, or otherwise promote what they termed "deviant" ideas. At two separate speeches attended by Poloff (at the Sejm on March 28 and the World Congress of Families on May 11) Giertych used a rally-to-the-flag strategy, declaring a "war" of culture in which Poland must defend "normality," family, Europe, indeed all of civilization. The draft legislation has gone nowhere, and LPR's anti-gay stance became the subject of national embarrassment and ridicule when LPR member and Child Rights Ombudsman Ewa Sowinska announced she was investigating whether children's TV program "Teletubbies" promoted homosexuality to children. Criticized in the media and warned not to look ridiculous by Sejm Speaker Ludwig Dorn, Sowinska quickly backed down, stating that her concerns had been allayed after consulting a leading sex therapist. ¶5. (U) LPR's next front in the war was abortion. Most Poles are against abortion on demand, but support Poland's carefully worked post-Communist compromise, under which abortion is available to save the life of the mother or in the case of rape or incest. In March LPR proposed a constitutional ban on all abortions, which would tighten what already stood as the strictest regulations in Europe. Outgoing Primate of Poland, Cardinal Jozef Glemp opposed the change as too extreme, but Radio Maryja's Father Rydzyk sided WARSAW 00001398 002.2 OF 002 with LPR, criticizing PiS for a "lack of Catholic consciousness," and attacking on First Lady Maria Kaczynska after she signed a letter of leading women opposing the constitutional change. PiS responded with a vaguely worded counterproposal to "respect life." The debate posed one of the more serious challenges to PiS, with many of its members initially supporting Giertych's amendment, but in the end it was defeated and the constitution left untouched. Giertych's maneuver threatened to split PiS, but in the end only a small group, led by then-Sejm Speaker Marek Jurek, a devout Catholic, broke with PiS, supporting Giertych's amendment and opposing PiS's. When both proposed constitutional changes were voted down, Jurek stepped down as speaker and split off to form his own party, the Right of the Republic (PR),but took only a handful of deputies with him. Giertych gained nothing in the polls, and PiS lost very little. Poland Stands Alone -------------- ¶7. (C) Giertych's efforts have angered many Poles for the damage they have done to Poland's image, in particular the way in which they have aggravated Poland's isolation on social issues within the EU. On April 26, the EU Parliament called on the GOP to publicly condemn political and civic leaders who incite homophobia or discrimination against homosexuals, and urged anti-racism experts to look into the "emerging climate of racist, xenophobic, and homophobic intolerance" in Poland. Following that, on May 4 the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Poland had violated the European Convention on Human Rights when President Lech Kaczynski, then Mayor of Warsaw, banned the annual Equality Parade in 2005. (Note: The parade was authorized and proceeded in relative peace in 2006 and 2007.) Finally, Amnesty International denounced Poland on May 23 for discriminating against sexual minorities. While many Poles disagree with the broad characterizations of Poland by these groups, they do not buy in to Giertych's outlook. As an MFA official told Poloff, the average Pole is "ashamed" that Giertych has become the face of Poland in the EU. Impassioned Words, But Little Damage to PiS -------------- ¶8. (U) Despite a small, short-term bump in popularity polls in March, Giertych's loud and controversial proclamations have gained him little. While Jurek's break with PiS seemed potentially cataclysmic, the real effect has been minor, as Jurek's six-person PR still caucuses with PiS. The Kaczynskis have proven surprisingly adept at limiting damages to their party, and while they have not improved PiS's standing, they have managed to consistently keep PiS around 25 percent in the popularity polls, within five points of opposition Civic Platform (PO). On the other hand, after the initial bump LPR quickly fell back to its post-2005 normal level of between three to five percent, below or just at the parliamentary threshold. This limits LPR's leverage as forcing new elections could result in LPR's disappearance from the Sejm. LPR supports changes to the electoral law that would lower the threshold and allow for bloc party lists to increase its chances and is hoping PiS will support these ideas in discussions over the coalition agreement. ¶9. (C) Comment. Giertych has done damage to Poland's image, and has managed to implant officials in a number of ministries who try to advance his social agenda, but he seems to have miscalculated the possibility of translating the conservative nature of Polish society into political support for LPR. Polling data shows that the vast majority of Poles share conservative views on abortion and homosexuality, but most believe that Poland's abortion laws are sufficient. Likewise, most Poles do not subscribe to Giertych's and Father Rydzyk's conspiracy theories that see tolerance education as homosexual "propaganda." Many also reject his ultra-nationalist visions for education and the anti-Semitic views of his father and some other LPR members. For all of his bluster, Giertych has achieved the exact opposite of what he hoped--instead of stealing support from PiS, he has turned off all but the most extreme and allowed the Kaczynskis to appear as the voice of reason in comparison with LPR. Most importantly for the U.S., while the government does look over its shoulder with regard to its coalition partners' opposition to key foreign policy matters--especially Iraq and Afghanistan--the Kaczynskis have clearly shut Giertych out of the foreign, security, and police affairs realm, and likely intend to keep it that way. End Comment. ASHE