WILL POLAND USE ITS VETO ON THE EU CONSTITUTIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 001338

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: WILL POLAND USE ITS VETO ON THE EU CONSTITUTIONAL
TREATY?


Classified By: DCM Kenneth M. Hillas, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Warsaw has had a slew of EU leaders pay a visit on the
eve of the June 21 EU Summit in Berlin on a constitutional
convention. Last week Italian PM Prodi had brutally frank
talks with the Polish President and PM. According to a
senior Italian diplomat, Prodi called his meeting with PM
Kaczynski the chilliest he has ever had with an EU leader,
with the exception of a recent meeting with Czech President
Klaus. In an effort to leverage Poland,s continuing desire
to give Ukraine a date for starting EU talks, Prodi
reportedly warned PM Kaczynski that further EU enlargement
would be off the table if a constitutional treaty did not
move ahead in Berlin. According to the French Embassy,
French President Sarkozy, who visits Warsaw on June 14, will
appeal to PM Kaczynski to play the part of a big-state leader
in limiting his demands on voting rights. French, German,
and British officials remain uncertain whether Poland will
use its veto or accept a last minute compromise. PM
Kaczynski, who is expected to represent Poland in Berlin
(although this has not officially been announced),has
resurrected earlier veto threats, overruling Presidential EU
advisor Marek Cichocki,s efforts to play the veto question
and seeming to paint Poland into a corner.

2. (C) German diplomats are hinting that Chancellor MERKEL is
working on some concessions to Poland that would enable
Kaczynski to claim success even if he abandons his demand for
Poland,s "square root" voting system, which has no real
support outside Poland. Indeed, Kaczynski told Prodi his
biggest political problem would be the appearance of
acquiescing to a relative increase in Germany's voting
strength. But, while London, Paris, and Berlin are making
progress on hammering out compromises on various issues,
Poland has yet to indicate its fall-back position. There are
indications they know they are isolated: advisors in PM
Kaczynski,s office claim that they have little confidence
the Czech Republic will stand by Poland, as promised. But
some diplomats doubt the cost of intransigence would be high
for Poland. In the view of a senior UK diplomat, the real
cost to Poland of using its veto would not be so high, as
Poland would continue to benefit from the favorable Nice
voting rules. But he acknowledged Poland could face efforts
to marginalize it in EU bodies, as a result, reducing its
influence in Brussels.
ASHE