SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF THE LITHUANIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000542 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR THE DEPUTY SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR CLOUD E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2017 TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV MOPS MARR IZ LH SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF THE LITHUANIAN FOREIGN AND DEFENSE MINISTERS REF: VILNIUS 00511 Classified By: Ambassador John A. Cloud for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) As part of President Adamkus's decision to maintain a combat platoon on Iraq, he tasked Foreign Minister Vaitiekunas and Defense Minister Olekas to travel to Washington to discuss Lithuania's role in Iraq. MNF-Iraq has given the Lithuanian military a variety of options and promised needed logistical support. Vaitiekunas supports the continued deployment of a platoon. Olekas has been opposed, but has been overruled by President Adamkus. While the Lithuanian Parliament has recently approved a three-year extension for their troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, the government still needs to extend its formal mandate in Iraq beyond December 2007. So, even though the Lithuanians claim to be only talking about a mandate until the end of 2007, finding the right role for the combat platoon should keep them in place much longer. However, the visit is as much about U.S.-Lithuanian relations as it is about Iraq. ¶2. (C) Lithuania finds itself in the midst of multiple transitions each of which sows self doubt and angst. After having achieved its twin goals of membership in NATO and the EU in 2004, Lithuania has not developed a consensus on a new national goal. Instead, they are finding that membership in both institutions contains obligations as well as opportunities. At the same time, they have not completely internalized that these are very different institutions and that the trading culture of the EU is inappropriate for NATO and for dealing with us. ¶3. (C) On the political side, this period coincides with the departure of Lithuania's first generation of leaders -- the move of conservative leader Landsbergis to the European Parliament and the retirement of post Communist leader Brazauskas. President Adamkus is now in the last two years of his second term. He will be almost 83 when his term ends and he is not expected to seek a third term. This situation places considerable political uncertainty over the country, particularly for an ambitious politician such as Olekas. ¶4. (C) Lithuania has, to date, "punched above its weight" in Iraq and Afghanistan and they take seriously NATO force goals and their contributions to the NRF. While the NATO air policing mission in the Baltics is symbolically important, NATO membership has not protected them from their big neighbor -- Russia -- the way they expected. Instead, even with NATO membership, Lithuania feels vulnerable to new types of challenges from Russia. Russia's decision to suspend oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline and to threaten to suspend natural gas shipments to Belarus (Lithuania receives natural gas via the same pipeline) has heightened Lithuanian awareness of their vulnerability. Many Lithuanians see Russia behind everything bad that happens in the country. The opposition conservative party recently promoted a series of measures designed to "contain Russia." ¶5. (C) 2002-2005 were halcyon years for the U.S.-Lithuanian relationship. President Bush visited in 2002. The Lithuanians were part of Secretary Rumsfeld's "New Europe" in 2003, and they acceded to NATO in 2004. Now Lithuania's relationship with the U.S. is also changing. With the expansion of NATO and the EU, the relationship has become less about Lithuania and more about what we can do together globally. While we continue to want Lithuanian partnership, we now expect them to carry more of the costs (e.g., operating costs for the PRT in Afghanistan which we paid at first). Lithuanians found the old relationship with its high level visits and extensive financial support much more comfortable and less demanding, particularly on their budget. In addition, the Lithuanians have been taken aback to find that in cases such as OECD accession not only did we not provide them with the accustomed roadmap for their membership, but we did not even support their membership. While they might have been able to reconcile themselves to this, it was further complicated by provoking Baltic jealousy with Estonia gaining approval for accession negotiations and then -- even worse from their perspective -- acquiescing to their "Great Satan's" (Russia's) eventual membership. Our inability to get the Congress to approve the donation of two Osprey class minesweepers has led even our friends to question our support. ¶6. (C) Vaitiekunas and Olekas will be looking to discuss and obtain U.S. support for several things during this visit going beyond Iraq. Most basically, Vaitiekunas will be looking for reaffirmation of our close relationship. Olekas will use any hesitancy on our part to convince their colleagues in the government that they no longer have to do the hard things for us. Beyond that, Lithuania really has four foreign policy focuses: energy security, Russia, their PRT in Afghanistan, and democratization in their neighborhood. They will be looking for assurances that we are not going soft on Putin and Russia. (They follow our discussions with Russia closely, and we constantly have to reassure them that the President and the Secretary mean what they say.) On energy security, the Lithuanians appreciate the importance of diversity of supply. Their near term situation is difficult with their Chernobyl-style nuclear power plant required to close in 2009 under their EU accession agreement. They are working with their neighbors to have a replacement facility ready between 2015 and 2020. In the meantime, they appreciate the importance of a southern gas route from Central Asia to Europe and have been a driving force in creating a new EU consensus on energy policy. They have invited Secretary Bodman to an "Energy Summit" they are hosting October 10-11 designed to promote greater EU consensus and promote a new, independent Caspain gas route. They are hoping that Kazahk President Nazarbayev and Turkmen President Berdimuhammedov will attend. ¶7. (C) On Afghanistan, they fear that Ghor Province will be left behind because they do not (and will not) have the resources to put into major economic development. They have done some work to bring the Gulf States on board with our assistance. But they are finding that they do not have the development expertise to create projects with sufficient scale to attract the attention of the Gulf States. They are looking for AID to continue to deliver some assistance in Ghor Province, but also for our help in designing projects suitable for Ghor that could attract funding from elsewhere. ¶8. (C) With regard to Lithuania's neighborhood (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia) cooperation is currently excellent. The Lithuanians remain uncomfortable with isolating Belarus, given that they see themselves as being of the same family, but they do appreciate that Lukashenko has done little to deserve a change of approach from the EU and the U.S. ¶9. (C) The Lithuanians are in need of some alliance management. They have gone from being one of our darlings in the 2003-2005 period to being a trusted and important ally. This transition is natural and appropriate from our perspective, but a little daunting from theirs. I appreciate your willingness to spend some time helping the Lithuanians understand the important role they play as a friend and ally of the United States with both the privileges and expectations that go with that. I believe this time will be particularly well spent with DefMin Olekas. Although the driving force in working to downsize Lithuania's commitment to Iraq, he has been a strong proponent of Lithuanian involvement in Afghanistan. I have not found him to be anti-American. He is a medical doctor who is much more focused on domestic politics than on security issues. However, he appreciates the importance of NATO to Lithuania's security and the importance of U.S.-Lithuanian relations. He is also the host for February's NATO Defense Ministerial. I believe he can be turned around if he appreciates that the Lithuanian forces are meeting an important need. CLOUD