DAS DAVID KRAMER'S MAY 11 VISIT TO VILNIUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000340

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV LT BO UP
SUBJECT: DAS DAVID KRAMER'S MAY 11 VISIT TO VILNIUS

REF: MINSK 362

Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF REBECCA DUNHAM FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D
)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On May 11, EUR DAS David Kramer provided the
GOL an account of his recent visit to Belarus and delivered
the message that the USG and its allies must keep pressure on
Belarusian President Lukashenko until he takes concrete steps
toward reform. His GOL interlocutors were skeptical that
Lukashenko would take such steps, but accepted the reasoning
behind continued pressure. DAS Kramer also discussed the
current political situation in Ukraine and energy security.
He thanked the GOL for cooperation on supporting regional and
international security. DAS Kramer also met with the Belarus
Country Director for the International Republican Institute
(IRI) and the Rector of the European Humanities University
(EHU). End Summary.

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Belarus
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2. (C) During his May 11 visit to Vilnius, DAS Kramer met
with a wide range of interlocutors with interest in Russia
and Eastern Europe, including International Republican
Institute (IRI) Belarus Country Director Michael Getto and
Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign
Affairs Audronius Azubalis. He met over lunch with the Prime
Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor Albinas Januska and MFA
Under Secretary Zygimantas Pavilionis, and participated in a
roundtable discussion on Belarus with Lithuanian Ambassador
to Belarus Edminas Bagdonas and Belarusian analysts Piotr
Marcev and Jeroslav Ramanchuk. He held a private meeting
with European Humanities University Rector Anatoli Mikhailov,
and ended the day at a dinner hosted by Ambassador Cloud with
guests including: MFA Under Secretary Laimonas Talat-Kelpsa,
MOD Under Secretary Renatas Norkus, MP Rasa Jukneviciene, MP
Petras Austrevicius, MP Antanas Valionis, and Presidential
Foreign Policy Advisor Aiste Bertulyte-Zikeviciene.


3. (C) In DAS Kramer's meeting with IRI, Belarus Country
Director Getto gave an update on the opposition congresses in
Belarus. He said that although there were some credentialing
and delegate problems in Mogilyov with Alexander
Milinkevich's supporters, they had been resolved. He also
said that in a vote to decide upon a single chairman or to
have multiple chairmen with functional specializations as the
party structure for the UDF, the multiple chairmanship option
had won by a margin of 92 to 64 in Minsk city. This was a
different result than in Gomel, where electing the single
chairman had won 58 to 39 (reftel). Getto was happy to see
that Milinkevich was staying in the process. Although he had
previously said he would not attend the April 26 Chernobyl
March, Getto informed us that Milinkevich appeared in
pictures of the event.


4. (C) DAS Kramer told interlocutors at the lunch and dinner
about his recent trip to Belarus, where he met with close
Lukashenko advisor Natalya Petkevich. Kramer told her that,
in order to have improved relations with the United States
and EU, Lukashenko would need to take three steps. First, he
would need to let the April 26 Chernobyl March proceed
without interference; second, he would need to let the
opposition regional and national congresses proceed in
Belarus; and third, he would need to release all political
prisoners. Januska questioned whether Petkevich could
deliver this message to Lukashenko unfiltered. Kramer told
him that Petkevich had requested the meeting and knew in
advance what it would be about; it was reasonable to deduce
that Lukashenko had approved of the meeting and would want to
hear his message in full. Bagdonas opined that the message
might be passed to Lukashenko but was highly pessimistic that
Lukashenko would ever take the step of releasing political
prisoners, and particularly opposition leader Aleksandr
Kozulin. Kramer noted that he was not optimistic either but
felt it important to deliver a clear message to the regime, a
position supported by all the leading opposition figures.


5. (C) Several GOL officials told DAS Kramer that now was a
good time to open up to Belarus given the pressure from
Russia. Kramer explained that additional pressure from
Russia means that we should turn up our own pressure, not
throw Lukashenko a lifeline. Kramer and Under Secretary
Talat-Kelpsa agreed that some differences in opinion over
strategy on Belarus were healthy. While the GOL clearly
remains impatient to initiate higher-level contact with
Belarus, all GOL representatives acknowledged DAS Kramer's
reasoning as sound.

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Ukraine
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6. (C) DAS Kramer delivered the message in all of his GOL
meetings that Ukraine needed to work through its political
problems on its own; the reality is that Ukraine is both an
orange and blue country. Januska told him that the GOL was
considering working more closely with PM Yanukovich to match
that reality. He noted that Poland was dealing with
President Yushchenko to the exclusion of Yanukovich. Under
Secretary Pavilionis noted that Ukraine had an interesting

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opportunity to reverse the old trend of Russia being first
into world organizations, starting with the WTO. Kramer
pointed out that Ukraine was working through its political
difficulties peacefully, Ukrainians were using their right to
assemble, and the press was free to report on what was
happening. Pavilionis and Januska agreed these were positive
signs.

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European Humanities University
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7. (U) DAS Kramer met with Rector of the European Humanities
University Anatoli Mikhailov to discuss the status of the
university's affairs. Mikhailov indicated that the financial
affairs of the university were very challenging. He said
that they had even discussed internally the possibility of
closing the university. The biggest problem was the
inability to find financial support for enrolling bachelor's
degree students for the 2007-08 academic year. Mikhailov
asserted that having a gap of one academic year with no
students would pose dire administrative problems for the
university. Mikhailov said that the European Commission held
the view that after initial grants, EHU should become more
self-sufficient. He also said that some grants, such as the
EUR 300,000 donated by Norway, came with restrictions on how
they could be used. Enrolling students for the 2007-08
academic year was Mikhailov's top priority.

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Energy Security
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8. (C) Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on
Foreign Affairs Audronius Azubalis told DAS Kramer that he
thought the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline would never have
been completed without U.S. support. He said he worries that
the EU does not have the consistent political will to support
the Nabucco pipeline in the same way. Azubalis sees Russia
offering separate energy deals to transit countries to divide
Europe and prevent the development of competing pipelines.


9. (U) DAS Kramer cleared this message.
CLOUD