DAS DAVID KRAMER'S MAY 11 VISIT TO VILNIUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000340 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV LT BO UP SUBJECT: DAS DAVID KRAMER'S MAY 11 VISIT TO VILNIUS REF: MINSK 362 Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF REBECCA DUNHAM FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D ) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On May 11, EUR DAS David Kramer provided the GOL an account of his recent visit to Belarus and delivered the message that the USG and its allies must keep pressure on Belarusian President Lukashenko until he takes concrete steps toward reform. His GOL interlocutors were skeptical that Lukashenko would take such steps, but accepted the reasoning behind continued pressure. DAS Kramer also discussed the current political situation in Ukraine and energy security. He thanked the GOL for cooperation on supporting regional and international security. DAS Kramer also met with the Belarus Country Director for the International Republican Institute (IRI) and the Rector of the European Humanities University (EHU). End Summary. -------------- Belarus -------------- ¶2. (C) During his May 11 visit to Vilnius, DAS Kramer met with a wide range of interlocutors with interest in Russia and Eastern Europe, including International Republican Institute (IRI) Belarus Country Director Michael Getto and Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs Audronius Azubalis. He met over lunch with the Prime Minister's Foreign Policy Advisor Albinas Januska and MFA Under Secretary Zygimantas Pavilionis, and participated in a roundtable discussion on Belarus with Lithuanian Ambassador to Belarus Edminas Bagdonas and Belarusian analysts Piotr Marcev and Jeroslav Ramanchuk. He held a private meeting with European Humanities University Rector Anatoli Mikhailov, and ended the day at a dinner hosted by Ambassador Cloud with guests including: MFA Under Secretary Laimonas Talat-Kelpsa, MOD Under Secretary Renatas Norkus, MP Rasa Jukneviciene, MP Petras Austrevicius, MP Antanas Valionis, and Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Aiste Bertulyte-Zikeviciene. ¶3. (C) In DAS Kramer's meeting with IRI, Belarus Country Director Getto gave an update on the opposition congresses in Belarus. He said that although there were some credentialing and delegate problems in Mogilyov with Alexander Milinkevich's supporters, they had been resolved. He also said that in a vote to decide upon a single chairman or to have multiple chairmen with functional specializations as the party structure for the UDF, the multiple chairmanship option had won by a margin of 92 to 64 in Minsk city. This was a different result than in Gomel, where electing the single chairman had won 58 to 39 (reftel). Getto was happy to see that Milinkevich was staying in the process. Although he had previously said he would not attend the April 26 Chernobyl March, Getto informed us that Milinkevich appeared in pictures of the event. ¶4. (C) DAS Kramer told interlocutors at the lunch and dinner about his recent trip to Belarus, where he met with close Lukashenko advisor Natalya Petkevich. Kramer told her that, in order to have improved relations with the United States and EU, Lukashenko would need to take three steps. First, he would need to let the April 26 Chernobyl March proceed without interference; second, he would need to let the opposition regional and national congresses proceed in Belarus; and third, he would need to release all political prisoners. Januska questioned whether Petkevich could deliver this message to Lukashenko unfiltered. Kramer told him that Petkevich had requested the meeting and knew in advance what it would be about; it was reasonable to deduce that Lukashenko had approved of the meeting and would want to hear his message in full. Bagdonas opined that the message might be passed to Lukashenko but was highly pessimistic that Lukashenko would ever take the step of releasing political prisoners, and particularly opposition leader Aleksandr Kozulin. Kramer noted that he was not optimistic either but felt it important to deliver a clear message to the regime, a position supported by all the leading opposition figures. ¶5. (C) Several GOL officials told DAS Kramer that now was a good time to open up to Belarus given the pressure from Russia. Kramer explained that additional pressure from Russia means that we should turn up our own pressure, not throw Lukashenko a lifeline. Kramer and Under Secretary Talat-Kelpsa agreed that some differences in opinion over strategy on Belarus were healthy. While the GOL clearly remains impatient to initiate higher-level contact with Belarus, all GOL representatives acknowledged DAS Kramer's reasoning as sound. -------------- Ukraine -------------- VILNIUS 00000340 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) DAS Kramer delivered the message in all of his GOL meetings that Ukraine needed to work through its political problems on its own; the reality is that Ukraine is both an orange and blue country. Januska told him that the GOL was considering working more closely with PM Yanukovich to match that reality. He noted that Poland was dealing with President Yushchenko to the exclusion of Yanukovich. Under Secretary Pavilionis noted that Ukraine had an interesting SIPDIS opportunity to reverse the old trend of Russia being first into world organizations, starting with the WTO. Kramer pointed out that Ukraine was working through its political difficulties peacefully, Ukrainians were using their right to assemble, and the press was free to report on what was happening. Pavilionis and Januska agreed these were positive signs. -------------- European Humanities University -------------- ¶7. (U) DAS Kramer met with Rector of the European Humanities University Anatoli Mikhailov to discuss the status of the university's affairs. Mikhailov indicated that the financial affairs of the university were very challenging. He said that they had even discussed internally the possibility of closing the university. The biggest problem was the inability to find financial support for enrolling bachelor's degree students for the 2007-08 academic year. Mikhailov asserted that having a gap of one academic year with no students would pose dire administrative problems for the university. Mikhailov said that the European Commission held the view that after initial grants, EHU should become more self-sufficient. He also said that some grants, such as the EUR 300,000 donated by Norway, came with restrictions on how they could be used. Enrolling students for the 2007-08 academic year was Mikhailov's top priority. -------------- Energy Security -------------- ¶8. (C) Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs Audronius Azubalis told DAS Kramer that he thought the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline would never have been completed without U.S. support. He said he worries that the EU does not have the consistent political will to support the Nabucco pipeline in the same way. Azubalis sees Russia offering separate energy deals to transit countries to divide Europe and prevent the development of competing pipelines. ¶9. (U) DAS Kramer cleared this message. CLOUD