AUSTRIA'S FREEDOM PARTY: SUCCEEDING WITH NEGATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L VIENNA 002787

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2022
TAGS: PGOV AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRIA'S FREEDOM PARTY: SUCCEEDING WITH NEGATIVE
POLITICS


Classified By: Econ/Pol Counselor Dean Yap. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) The Austrian political climate appears to be tilting
o the advantage of the far-right Freedom Party, whse blend
of nationalism, social conservatism, an economic populism
appeals to that segment of the population unnerved by
immigration, loss of soveeignty to the EU, and
globalization-driven econoic change. Party leaders
themselves share this iew, but are unable to describe a
positive agend for governance and readily admit that they
couldnot implement more than 15 percent of their "progrm"
as junior partners in a future coalition. Paty leader
Strache acknowledges, but is unfazed by the challenges of
moving from a purely oppositional role into government, with
its demands for responsible action. End Summary.

Congenial Environment
--------------


2. (C) Though most Austrians feel quite comfortable -- an
October poll showed satisfaction with living standards at 89
percent - a significant part of the population is unhappy and
apprehensive. Political scientist and pollster Peter
Filzmaier of the Donau University identifies loss of
sovereignty in the EU; globalization's impact on the social
welfare state; and the cultural and domestic security effects
of eastern European and (especially) Muslim immigration as
Austria's most salient political concerns. That negative
aspects of these issues predominate in media coverage feeds
popular anxieties. The Freedom Party's opposition to these
phenomena, Filzmaier maintains, has given it the highest
profile of any party in dealing with them. It is, therefore,
set to gain support and, ceteris paribus, do well in upcoming
elections, according to Filzmaier. Representatives of other
parties agree. Josef Kalina, the Business Manager of the
SPO, agrees that the FPO has a set of issues it can exploit
and, when asked about counter-strategies, admitted his party
had none. Green party leader Alexander Van der Bellin blamed
the SPO and conservative FPO for failing to address these
long-term challenges seriously in the past.

FPO: Putting Its Troubles Behind It
--------------


3. (U) Not only is the environment favorable. The FPO
appears ready to take active advantage of it. The party has
largely recovered from the 2005 schism that led to the
establishment of the Alliance for Austria's Future (BZO)
under ex-FPO chief Haider. The FPO is now at 14-15 percent
in polls and gaining slightly. The most recent poll of
hypothetical voting intentions put it moving just past the
Greens to become again the third most-favored party. The BZO
has slipped below the four percent required to gain
parliamentary seats in elections. While the FPO still lacks
leadership depth, it has been pushing hard to profile party
leader Heinz Christian Strache. It has also found an issue
on which to run a between-elections popularity campaign: the
EU Treaty. The FPO, with the support of the tabloid daily
"Kronenzeitung," has been pushing hard for a referendum on
the Treaty. Polls show two-thirds or more of the public want
a vote. The government, however, resolutely insists that
there will be no referendum. FPO ads, with the text backed
by a photo of Strache, hit all its clientele's buttons: no EU
treaty to steal Austrian independence, no Turkish membership
in the EU, and no to globalization (in ads which also claim
the EU is a U.S. dependency).

And Not Worried About a Program
--------------


4. (C) Econ/Pol Counselor and POL FSN called Nov. 8 on Harald
Vilimsky, MP, the FPO's parliamentary leader, to discuss the
party's platform and prospects. Vilimsky was accompanied by
caucus Director Norbert Nemeth. Discussion focused initially
on party attitudes toward the EU. Vilimsky responded in
predictable and unoriginal language, describing the EU as,
inter alia, a danger to Austrian neutrality. Nemeth, more
polished and more intellectual than Vilimsky, explained that
the real issue was not neutrality, but rather the erosion of
Austrian sovereignty in the EU. Asked about FPO attitudes
toward the U.S., Vilimsky first defended a local Vienna
district council member who had said, after the attempted
bombing, that the Embassy was a danger to the people of his
district and should move out of Vienna. Vilimsky did,
however, note at the end of his remarks that the party
leadership "might" not share those views.


5. (C) At this point in the meeting party leader Strache

appeared. Informed of the subject of the discussion, Strache
hastened to assure Emboffs that, while critical of certain
U.S. policies, on the whole there was much he admired about
the U.S. For example, the FPO, he said, would never
criticize the right of a democratic country to apply the
death penalty! Emboffs asked about party policy on
immigration. Strache (the only one of the three FPO
officials who spoke more than a few words once he arrived)
listed the dangers immigrants, especially Muslims, posed and
stressed Muslim refusal to integrate into Austria. His
comments included references to the Islamization of Europe
and the inappropriateness of minarets in a European
cityscape. Emboffs twice asked what the party's policy
response was to these problems, especially at a time of
coming shortfalls in the labor market. Strache offered
further criticism, but no specifics.


6. (C) Emboffs raised the party's prospects. Strache was
non-specific, but upbeat. He did say that he thought the FPO
had nothing to worry about from the BZO. Rather, the BZO was
useful because it was a contrast to the more moderate
positions of the FPO. The FPO, for example, would not call
for mass expulsions of Muslims as the BZO had. Emboffs asked
about the danger of winning support based solely on
opposition and then being confronted with the need to be a
responsible and constructive partner in government. Strache
readily acknowledged that the FPO could not hope to implement
more than 10-15 percent of its "program" in government, and
that the party would accept many things it now opposed. He
admitted as well, seemingly without concern, that this would
cause problems for some FPO supporters.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Strache, who spent more than an hour with Emboffs,
came off as both a convinced national conservative and a
cynical politico. Vilimsky's formulaic interventions hint at
the lack of leadership depth in the FPO as it rebuilds after
the 2005 schism, but Nemeth's more thoughtful comments
suggest it has talent to be developed. As to the party's
prospects, given the uniformity of views we hear, it seems
indeed that the climate is favorable for the FPO. 2008 state
elections will be a first test of the party's strength.
Other parties' inability or unwillingness to confront FPO
populism on immigration issues and desire to avoid a debate
on sovereignty is a sad commentary on the quality of Austrian
political leadership. End Comment.


8. (C) Note on Contact with the FPO: Strache was interested
in continuing contact with the Embassy, but his and
Vilimsky's awkward attempts to curry favor (e.g., the death
penalty comments, or hints that the FPO and USG have similar
views about Islam) suggest little benefit from dialogue. We
suspect the FPO would seek to exploit contacts with the
Embassy to raise its own standing. Embassy will continue to
engage the FPO at lower levels for the insight we may gain
into Austrian political processes, but not reach out to
Strache. End Note.
McCaw