SOMALI D/PERMREP'S ASSESSMENT OF TFG POLITICS

S E C R E T USUN NEW YORK 000854 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS IO AND AF FOR FRONT OFFICE; PLEASE PASS TO SE JOHN YATES E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2107 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SO SUBJECT: SOMALI D/PERMREP'S ASSESSMENT OF TFG POLITICS Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for Reasons 1.4 B/D. ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: Somali D/PermRep Idd Beddel Mohamed predicted that the expected parliamentary confidence vote would produce a new government led by Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Minister of Commerce, Abdullahi Ahmed Afrah, or Minister of Interior, Mohamed Mohamud Guled Gamadhere. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (S/NF) Poloff met with Somali D/PermRep Idd Beddel Mohamed on October 10 to discuss the latest political developments in Somalia. Idd Mohamed reported that he had been monitoring the political developments closely by phone over the last few days and had decided to depart New York that evening for Nairobi, Baidoa and Mogadishu so that he would be present for the coming "showdown" between TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf and Prime Minister Ali Gedi. ¶3. (S/NF) Idd Mohamed said there was "zero percent chance" that PM Gedi would emerge victorious from the confidence vote and predicted that the process would occur peacefully and according to "constitutional" processes. Idd Mohamed commented, "The President is a very clever man and he has prepared everything properly." ¶4. (S/NF) Idd Mohamed said that he was in close contact with President Yusuf's "immediate family" and that the President favors either the TFG Minister of Commerce, Abdullahi Ahmed Afrah, or Minister of Interior, Mohamed Mohamud Guled Gamadhere, as the new Prime Minister. Idd Mohamed said that President Yusuf had initially favored National Reconciliation Congress Chairman Ali Mahdi Mohamed, but President Yusuf had grown suspicious of Mahdi's growing influence within certain circles of the TFG. KHALILZAD