GAMBARI RAISES ISSUES FOR A TRANSITION IN BURMA

S E C R E T USUN NEW YORK 000832 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR NSA STEPHEN HADLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC BM SUBJECT: GAMBARI RAISES ISSUES FOR A TRANSITION IN BURMA Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, Permanent Representative. For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) This is an action request. See para 6. ¶2. (S) On October 8, Ambassador Khalilzad met with Special Adviser Ibrahim Gambari to discuss next steps following the latter's return from Burma. Several issues emerged in the discussion, which could benefit from an NSC-led interagency review, with an eye toward developing options for a negotiated transition in the country. ¶3. (S) The Fate of the Military: Recalling her father's military background, ASSK told Gambari that the military was important for the country and could not be allowed to disintegrate. In that vein, she said she was prepared to accept the establishment of a joint transition period with the military. Noting Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew statement on October 5 that Burma was a "time bomb" for the region, Gambari reported that Singapore had already prepared a message to the regime offering to receive some military leaders as part of a transition agreement. What kind of assurances should opposition leaders like ASSK be willing to provide regime leaders about the fate of the military? What are the models we need to review where the role of the military has successfully transitioned in a civilian government? How deep into the ranks of the military would one need to go? What would be the role of the U.S. be in such a negotiation with the military, if any, and what kind of assurances would we be willing to give? ¶4. (S) The effectiveness of ASSK: Gambari told Ambassador Khalilzad that some of her advisers were nearing 80 years old and have been isolated for many years. How can we best strengthen her ability to conduct a dialogue with all sections of Burmese society to begin the transition to a civilian, representative government? Who is advising her? Does she have the capacity to do the job? Does the international community, including the U.S., need to help identify available Burmese talent? Should this task be given to UNDP? Is it the correct institution or are there others? ¶5. (S) Transitional Fund: Can the creation of a transition fund of some dimension help provide economic stability? What activities can be supported during the transition, such as in the medical field, which will make a positive contribution. Can our own Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria contribute in any way? ACTION REQUEST -------------- ¶6. (S) USUN requests that an inter-agency group review these and related issues, for the consideration by Deputies in an expedited manner. Gambari has requested that the U.S. convene in the next few days a small core group comprised of China, Japan, India, Russia, Singapore (as president of ASEAN) and the EU/EC to help him brainstorm on transition and other issues, as he and the Secretary General consider how best to take advantage of the momentum Gambari's trip has generated. KHALILZAD