LEBANON TRIBUNAL: DRAFT UNSCR DOES NOT YET HAVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 000411 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2017 TAGS: PREL PTER UNSC SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON TRIBUNAL: DRAFT UNSCR DOES NOT YET HAVE NINE CONFIRMED VOTES IN NEW YORK REF: USUN 408 Classified By: Ambassador Alejandro D. Wolff, per 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) P-3 PermReps, joined by Slovakia, agreed mid-afternoon May 24 that we do not currently have nine confirmed votes in favor of the draft Chapter VII resolution on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. (Although USUN subsequently learned that we have support from a majority of Security Council capitals, we have yet to confirm this in New York.) They nevertheless decided to introduce the draft during UNSC consultations on May 24, and following that discussion, assess when to put the resolution in blue and schedule a vote. They also agreed that we would need to make further changes to the text beyond a "sunrise" clause stipulating that the resolution will become effective on a specified date after May 31 unless Lebanon has ratified the agreement and statute by that time. France proposed modifying the operative paragraph that would establish the tribunal as follows: the Council would "decide that the parties shall implement the documents attached to the resolution" (i.e., the tribunal agreement and statute agreed to by the UN and Lebanese government). The P-3 agreed to send the French formulation back to capitals for review. USUN noted that, based on contacts with the Panamanian and Peruvian PermReps, this modification may not be sufficient to win the support of Latin American delegations, who continue to prefer a formulation that the Council would "decide to establish" a tribunal. In response, Ambassador de la Sabliere expressed concern that Russia might veto a resolution with that formulation. ¶2. (C) After bilateral consultations on May 24, USUN assesses that the P-3 draft resolution currently enjoys confirmed support in New York from seven delegations: U.S., UK, France, Belgium, Slovakia, Ghana, and Italy. The Ghanaian PR told Ambassador Wolff that Ghana would support the draft if it comes up for vote. The Italian PermRep advised Ambassador Khalilzad that Italy can agree to support the resolution with a "sunrise" clause. Although the Congolese President reportedly assured SYG Ban that Congo would support the draft resolution, the Congolese PermRep told Lebanese Foreign Policy Advisor Mohamad Chatah that he could not currently support the text. Panama and Peru continued to express strong legal concerns about the resolution (reftels) and implied they plan to abstain if the draft comes up for a vote. Russia, South Africa, and Qatar raised objections to the Chapter VII reference in the text. Russia also said it would have amendments to propose during consultations on May ¶24. The Russian legal expert told his British counterpart that rushing towards a vote could provoke Russia into a "technical veto" (i.e. due to lack of time to consult on the text rather than substantive objections). Separately, SYG Ban told Ambassador Khalilzad that he would call the Presidents of Panama and Peru to urge them to support the draft text. KHALILZAD