MICHEL PREVIEWS COUNCIL BRIEFING ON LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 000338 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2017 TAGS: PREL PTER UNSC LE SUBJECT: MICHEL PREVIEWS COUNCIL BRIEFING ON LEBANON TRIBUNAL REF: STATE 57533 CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR ALEJANDRO D. WOLFF, FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D PAGE 02 RUCNDTA0338 C O N F I D E N T I A L ). ¶1. (C) BEGIN SUMMARY: PER REFTEL, AMBASSADOR WOLFF URGED UN LEGAL COUNSEL MICHEL ON APRIL 30 TO USE HIS MAY 2 BRIEFING TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL TO CONVEY HIS CONCLUSION THAT THE LEBANESE PARLIAMENTARY PROCESS TO RATIFY THE TRIBUNAL AGREEMENT HAD REACHED AN IMPASSE AND TO EMPHASIZE THE NEED FOR COUNCIL ACTION TO ESTABLISH THE TRIBUNAL. MICHEL SAID HE WOULD ADVISE THE COUNCIL THAT PROSPECTS FOR THE LEBANESE TO ESTABLISH THE TRIBUNAL THROUGH THE DOMESTIC CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS REMAIN "UNCERTAIN" AND THAT HE WOULD EXPRESS "SERIOUS DOUBT" THAT PARLIAMENT WILL BE CONVENED BEFORE MAY 31. CITING PRIME MINISTER SINIORA'S WILLINGNESS TO CONTINUE NEGOTIATING, INCLUDING HIS APRIL 27 ANNOUNCEMENT RE-LAUNCHING HIS 17-13 PROPOSAL FOR ALLOCATING SEATS IN A NEW CABINET, MICHEL SAID HE COULD NOT DECLARE NOW THAT THE LEBANESE DOMESTIC PROCESS HAS REACHED AN IMPASSE. MICHEL ALSO ADVISED AMB. WOLFF THAT THE SYG ANTICIPATES BECOMING PERSONALLY ENGAGED ON THE TRIBUNAL ISSUE IN THE FUTURE AND MIGHT WISH TO BRIEF THE COUNCIL HIMSELF SOON. END SUMMARY. PAGE 03 RUCNDTA0338 C O N F I D E N T I A L MICHEL PROMISES "FACTUAL" BRIEFING -------------- ¶2. (C) MICHEL TOLD AMBASSADOR WOLFF HIS MAY 2 BRIEFING WOULD HAVE THREE PARTS AND FOCUS ON HIS TRIP TO BEIRUT RATHER THAN SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS. FIRST, HE WILL PROVIDE A FACTUAL OVERVIEW EXPLAINING THE CONTEXT OF AND MANDATE FOR HIS TRIP TO LEBANON. SECOND, HE WILL DISCUSS HIS MEETINGS IN BEIRUT, PROVIDING DETAILS ON THE VIEWS OF HIS INTERLOCUTORS AND A DESCRIPTION OF THE POSITION OF MEMBERS OF THE GOVERNMENT, THE ARGUMENTS OF THE OPPOSITION, AND THE GOVERNMENT'S ASSESSMENT OF THE OPPOSITION'S ARGUMENT. HE WILL CLOSE WITH HIS OWN OBSERVATIONS. ¶3. (C) BASED ON HIS CONVERSATIONS WITH PRIME MINISTER SINIORA IN BEIRUT, MICHEL SAID HE COULD NOT ARGUE THAT THE LEBANESE DOMESTIC PROCESS IS STALEMATED AND THAT THE SECURITY COUNCIL MUST INTERVENE. ALTHOUGH HE SAID THE PROPOSAL FOR TALKS IN GENEVA TO REACH AGREEMENT ON THE TRIBUNAL TEXTS IS "DEAD," MICHEL STRESSED THAT PRIME MINISTER SINIORA IS STILL PAGE 04 RUCNDTA0338 C O N F I D E N T I A L PURSUING OPTIONS FOR REACHING CONSENSUS ON THE TRIBUNAL. SPECIFICALLY, MICHEL CITED SINIORA'S ANNOUNCEMENT APRIL 27 THAT HE WOULD RE-LAUNCH HIS PROPOSAL ON THE 17-13 FORMULA FOR COMPOSING THE GOVERNMENT, PROVIDED THAT MEMBERS CONFIRM SUPPORT FOR THE SEVEN-POINT PLAN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF RESOLUTION 1701. MICHEL ALSO SAID SINIORA DID NOT APPEAR TO BE IN A RUSH TO SUPPORT COUNCIL ACTION AT THIS TIME AND WAS PREPARED TO LET THE MATTER WAIT UNTIL MAY 31. MICHEL SAID HE HAD SPOKEN WITH SPECIAL COORDINATOR FOR LEBANON GEIR PEDERSEN TWICE TODAY TO UNDERSTAND BETTER SINIORA'S INTENTIONS BUT COMMENTED, "I CAN'T GO TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL AND SAY ALL IS DEAD AND THEN HAVE THE PRIME MINISTER ANNOUNCE HE IS WORKING ON A NEW FORMULA." AMBASSADOR WOLFF WARNS PROPOSED BRIEFING COULD BE COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE -------------- ¶4. (C) AMBASSADOR WOLFF EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE BRIEFING MICHEL ENVISIONS WOULD HAVE THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE OF PAGE 05 RUCNDTA0338 C O N F I D E N T I A L STRENGTHENING COUNCIL SKEPTICS AND UNDERMINING THE COUNCIL'S ULTIMATE ABILITY TO ESTABLISH THE TRIBUNAL. HE URGED MICHEL TO CONCLUDE THAT THE LEBANESE PROCESS IS DEADLOCKED AND TO MAKE A STRONG STATEMENT SUPPORTING COUNCIL ACTION TO ESTABLISH THE TRIBUNAL. WOLFF QUESTIONED WHETHER MICHEL'S PROPOSED BRIEFING WOULD ANSWER THE TWO QUESTIONS COUNCIL SKEPTICS WILL POSE: (1) WHY THE COUNCIL SHOULD BECOME ENGAGED NOW, AND (2) WHY THE COUNCIL SHOULD NOT GIVE THE LEBANESE MORE TIME TO ESTABLISH THE TRIBUNAL THEMSELVES. INSTEAD, MICHEL SHOULD LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR ANY POSSIBLE SECURITY COUNCIL ACTION TO ESTABLISH THE TRIBUNAL, AMBASSADOR WOLFF URGED, STRESSING THAT PRIME MINISTER SINIORA HAS ADVISED THAT THE "WORST OUTCOME" WOULD BE FOR THE SECURITY COUNCIL NOT TO ENGAGE ON THE TRIBUNAL. THE FIRMER MICHEL MAKES HIS PRESENTATION TO THE COUNCIL, THE FIRMER THE COUNCIL WILL BE, AND THE FIRMER THE LEBANESE WILL BE, AMBASSADOR WOLFF ARGUED. ¶5. (C) MICHEL CONTINUED TO EXPRESS CONCERN THAT HE WOULD "UNDERCUT" SINIORA, BUT AGREED TO MAKE CLEAR STATEMENTS ABOUT PAGE 06 RUCNDTA0338 C O N F I D E N T I A L TIMING AND THE NEED FOR THE COUNCIL TO REJECT IMPUNITY. HE SAID HE WOULD STRESS THAT THE UN NEEDS ONE YEAR TO MAKE THE TRIBUNAL OPERATIONAL AND NOTING THAT THE UNIIIC'S MANDATE EXPIRES IN JUNE 2008. HE ALSO SAID HE WOULD STRESS THE NEED FOR CONSISTENCY IN THE COUNCIL'S ACTIONS AND RECALL THE COUNCIL'S UNANIMOUS DECISION TO ESTABLISH THE UNIIIC AND THE TRIBUNAL. FUTURE ROLE FOR SYG? PAGE 02 RUCNDTA0338 C O N F I D E N T I A L -------------- ¶6. (C) RECALLING HIS CONVERSATION WITH THE SYG ON THE MORNING OF APRIL 30, MICHEL REPORTED THE SYG BELIEVES THAT SOME UNSC MEMBERS DO NOT THINK THAT ALL EFFORTS TO ENCOURAGE A LEBANESE SOLUTION TO THE TRIBUNAL ISSUE HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED. MICHEL IMPLIED THAT THE SYG MIGHT UNDERTAKE ADDITIONAL EFFORTS IF COUNCIL MEMBERS OR REGIONAL STATES ADVISE THE SYG THAT THEY DO NOT THINK THE UN HAS DONE ENOUGH. IN THIS CONTEXT, MICHEL NOTED THAT THE ARAB LEAGUE, EGYPT, AND SAUDI ARABIA HAVE TOLD THE UN THAT THEY WOULD NOT SUPPORT SECURITY COUNCIL ACTION TO ESTABLISH THE TRIBUNAL UNDER CHAPTER VII AND THAT FURTHER EFFORTS BY THE UN MIGHT BE USEFUL. (NOTE: ACCORDING TO LEBANESE CHARGE CAROLINE ZIADE, MICHEL TOLD VISITING FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR TO PRIME MINISTER SINIORA MOHAMMAD CHATTAH THAT THE SYG PLANS TO BRIEF THE COUNCIL ON THE TRIBUNAL ISSUE UPON HIS RETURN FROM THE MAY 5-6 IRAQ NEIGHBORS CONFERENCE IN SHARM AL SHEIKH, EGYPT. END NOTE.) PAGE 03 RUCNDTA0338 C O N F I D E N T I A L LEBANESE AND FRENCH MEET MICHEL -------------- ¶7. (C) AMBASSADOR WOLFF DESCRIBED MICHEL'S PROPOSED COUNCIL BRIEFING TO THE LEBANESE CHARGE AND THE FRENCH PERMREP (BOTH OF WHOM WERE SCHEDULED TO SEE MICHEL LATER IN THE DAY) AND URGED THEM TO PRESS MICHEL TO GIVE AN UNAMBIGUOUS BRIEFING ON PROSPECTS FOR LEBANESE PARLIAMENTARY RATIFICATION AND THE NEED FOR COUNCIL ACTION ON THE TRIBUNAL. LEBANESE CHARGE CAROLINE ZIADE, WHO ACCOMPANIED CHATTAH TO THE MEETING WITH MICHEL THE AFTERNOON OF APRIL 30, REPORTED THAT CHATTAH TOLD MICHEL THAT THE PROSPECTS FOR PARLIAMENTARY RATIFICATION WERE "CLOSE TO ZERO." CHATTAH ALSO ASKED MICHEL IF THE SECRETARIAT WOULD RECOMMEND THAT THE COUNCIL TAKE ACTION TO SIPDIS ESTABLISH THE TRIBUNAL. ZIADE SUGGESTED THAT, DESPITE CHATTAH'S CHARACTERIZATION OF THE SITUATION IN LEBANON, MICHEL DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH POLITICAL COVER TO EDIT HIS PLANNED REMARKS TO THE UNSC. SHE NOTED THAT MICHEL ADVISED CHATTAH THAT PRIME MINISTER SINIORA SHOULD CALL THE SYG IF THE GOL WANTS THE SECRETARIAT TO RECOMMEND THAT THE COUNCIL PAGE 04 RUCNDTA0338 C O N F I D E N T I A L TAKE ACTION TO CREATE THE TRIBUNAL. ¶8. (C) AMBASSADOR WOLFF AND MICHEL AGREED TO REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT BEFORE WEDNESDAY. KHALILZAD