USUN PERSPECTIVE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 000293 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ CONNAUGHTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2017 TAGS: SENV ECON UNCSD SUBJECT: USUN PERSPECTIVE ON CLIMATE CHANGE REF: A. USUN NEW YORK 276 ¶B. USUN NEW YORK 266 ¶C. USUN NEW YORK 246 Classified By: Ambassador Richard T. Miller. Reason: 1.4 (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In the absence of a unifying focal point, climate change debates in the UN system are proliferating at a dizzying rate, with unpredictable and unwanted ramifications. This cable outlines strategies that USUN proposes to adopt in encouraging sensible and efficient UN handling of this contentious topic. Based on our assessment of currents in New York, we also suggest some general substantive principles for any future negotiations that we believe could win broad UN support. Adoption of these principles would allow the USG to shape this key debate to our optimal advantage and harness our natural allies. End summary. -------------- Climate Creep Pervades the UN System -------------- ¶2. (C) As a consequence of highly publicized recent scientific studies, an acclaimed documentary film, and a concerted campaign by European Union states and sympathetic UN agencies, climate change debates are proliferating throughout the entire UN system at a frenzied pace. Notable examples include the Security Council discussion of climate change scheduled for April 17; the Secretary-General's announced plans to highlight climate change at several upcoming events (the Commission on Sustainable Development in April, the G-8 summit in June, the UNGA in September, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ministerial in December); the incoming General Assembly President's intent to have a thematic discussion and side-event on climate during or around the UNGA's General Debate (reftels),and the UN Development Program's projected November release of its opinionated 2007 Human Development Report. Climate change likewise features prominently in two separate tracks of ongoing discussions of UN environmental governance reform. Finally, debates continue to swirl on the idea of convening a formal "Climate Summit," pressure for which UNSYG Ban has recently noted will only intensify depending on the outcome of the December UNFCCC ministerial in Bali. -------------- Bringing Order Out of Climate Chaos -------------- ¶3. (C) In the face of this onslaught, and with the UNSYG's office already launching (at this stage by proxy) informal discussions on how the UN system should handle climate change, USUN proposes to adopt the following strategies, unless otherwise instructed, as the basis for our engagement to ensure efficient and rational treatment of these discussions in New York. -- Climate change must remain firmly rooted in sustainable development, rather than stand on a pedestal of its own or even as a "first among equals." This view is deeply shared by developing states (G77) and ingrained in core UN instruments, but is under constant threat from EU initiatives notwithstanding lip-service to the contrary. The controversial UK initiative to raise climate change in the UNSC is but a recent assault on this principle. -- Discussion within the UN system of climate change mitigation should remain the immediate province of the UNFCCC. Debates in the UNGA and elsewhere must reinforce this principle in every instance, and defer to the UNFCCC any substantive engagement on the topic. -- If high-profile events such as a "Climate Summit" cannot win intergovernmental support in the UNFCCC, they must not be shifted to other fora. The decision to convene such high-level events must go through the intergovernmental process if it is to have any legitimacy or prospect for a productive result. -- Climate change adaptation deserves to be a key component in discussions on the development agenda. We can and should readily align ourselves with ideas to improve developing countries' capacities to respond to emerging problems, including disaster reduction and response. As numerous UN agencies deal with either broad or narrowly focused aspects of development, the diffusion of climate change adaptation discussions in numerous UN fora is natural and should in fact be encouraged. -- There is no institutional justification for using climate change as a further reason to centralize UN environmental governance in a top-heavy, bureaucratized new entity such as the EU-proposed "UN Environmental Organization." Efforts to link the two must be resisted. -------------- - Addressing The Disease As Well As The Symptoms -------------- - ¶4. (C) From our New York perspective, these strategies, as fundamental as they are, nevertheless address only the consequences of a larger root dilemma: the international community does not agree on what it knows about climate change, it does not agree on how to deal with what it thinks it knows, yet it strongly believes that it must do something, and something both visible and powerful, on the issue. So in addition to the strategic issues identified above, we will also face repeatedly a substantive exploration of causes, consequences, and both mitigative and adaptive policies to address climate change and its effects. ¶5. (C) Despite an aggressive minority's energetic campaign to steer and shape the debate in ways that could prove inimical to U.S. interests, the USG continues to have common cause with the majority of developing states and others who are alarmed at the possible consequences of climate change, but are also alarmed at European prescriptions that may have catastrophic economic consequences but only uncertain benefit. This "silent majority," however, remains uncoordinated and in search of an alternative banner to that of the EU. From our UN perch, it appears that the USG has ample prospective allies among sympathetic developing states such as China, Brazil and India, as well as Russia, Australia and other like-minded partners. We suggest an aggressive effort to rally our climate allies around a negotiating position that conforms to the following principles. -- Any new climate change agreement must have universal application, if even within the standard UN formulation of "common but differentiated responsibility." -- An agreement must have a sound scientific basis that minimizes risk of unintended consequences that either do further harm to the environment or squander precious economic resources without discernible benefit. -- In order to be politically sustainable, any agreement must facilitate economic growth and development. -- Any agreement architecture must allow for maximum flexibility and diverse mechanisms for achieving agreed goals. Exclusive reliance on top-down regulatory mechanisms will neither be acceptable nor achieve a comprehensive result. -- Technology transfer, scientific research and innovation are critical elements to addressing climate change, yet these elements alone rely heavily on private sector and non-state actors. Any agreement architecture must acknowledge that reality and create (or at least protect) an environment that allows those activities to flourish. -------------- A Prime Opportunity for Leadership -------------- ¶6. (C) Based on our best judgment of international views in New York, and given the confluence of recent and upcoming events, pressures appear to be building inexorably for an overarching international effort to address both real and artificially inflated concerns on climate change. The stakes to U.S. interests are significant, and the best way to protect those interests is to take a more active leadership role in the process. WOLFF