(S) SYG BAN KI-MOON CONSIDERING IRAQ VISIT

S E C R E T USUN NEW YORK 000136 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR IO FRONT OFFICE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER UNSC SU KPKO SUBJECT: (S) SYG BAN KI-MOON CONSIDERING IRAQ VISIT Classified By: Ambassador Alejandro D. Wolff, per 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY: During a February 8 meeting with IO A/S Silverberg, UN DPA Middle East Advisor Michael Williams said SYG Ban Ki-Moon is considering a stopover in Iraq in connection with his participation in the March 28 Arab League meeting in Riyadh. SYG Ban is also considering visits to Egypt, Jordan, Israel and possibly elsewhere in connection with the Arab League trip. Williams said establishing the Lebanon Special Tribunal through a Chapter VII resolution could prove difficult because of Russian opposition. In considering the content of the forthcoming UNSCR 1701 report, Williams noted the challenge of addressing classified Israeli estimates of Hizballah arms smuggling and rearmament. Williams also stressed the importance of Israeli flexibility in order to create the "appearance of movement" on the Shebaa farms issue for Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora. END SUMMARY. -------------- SYG Ban Ki-Moon Considering Baghdad Stopover -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) Williams said SYG Ban is considering a stopover in Baghdad in connection with his participation in the March 28 Arab League meeting in Riyadh. A/S Silverberg responded that the U.S. would enthusiastically welcome an Iraq visit by SYG Ban. Williams emphasized that SYG Ban has not yet committed to participating in the Arab League meeting and any Iraq visit would depend on security and logistical considerations. A/S Silverberg promised to help facilitate U.S. logistical and security support if the SYG decides to make the visit, adding that SYG Ban should consider stopping in Iraq in route to the Arab League meeting when it would have maximum political impact. -------------- Egypt, Jordan, Israel and Syria Visits Also Under Consideration -------------- ¶3. (C) Williams said SYG Ban will also likely stop in Egypt and Jordan, but has ruled out a visit to Iran. In regard to a Syria visit, Williams commented, "I wish it were off the table," adding that SYG Ban is "inclined to inclusiveness." A/S Silverberg responded that a visit to Syria would give the SARG leadership comfort at a time when they are working to destabilize the region. Williams acknowledged this point and said he is encouraging SYG Ban to limit his engagement with 
the SARG to "something off stage" on the sidelines of the Arab League meeting. ¶4. (C) Williams reported that that SYG Ban has already approached the Israeli Permanent Mission to the UN regarding a stop in Israel. The Israelis, however, have not yet provided a response because of internal disagreement about the appropriateness of the visit given the high degree of political uncertainty surrounding PM Olmert's government. A/S Silverberg commented that, if the Israelis agree, SYG Ban should include a stop in Israel but should be cautious. -------------- Chapter VII Tribunal Resolution -------------- ¶5. (C) Williams expressed pessimism that recent efforts led by Saudi Arabia and the Arab League to resolve the political crisis in Lebanon will yield positive results. Backed by Syria, Hizballah is unlikely to agree to any political compromise that will allow the Special Tribunal to move forward. Williams added that putting forward a Chapter VII UNSC resolution to establish the Special Tribunal would also be problematic because of divisions on the UNSC. In particular, Russia is in a "mischievous mood." -------------- UNSCR 1701 Report -------------- ¶6. (C) Williams discussed the likely contents of the next report on UNSCR 1701, which should be released in March. To prepare the report, he plans to travel to Israel and Lebanon following the February 21 Quartet meeting in Berlin. He noted Israeli estimates that Hizballah has engaged in arms smuggling and rearmed its forces, both north and south of the Litani River, following the July 2006 war with Israel, but suggested it would be difficult to capture this issue in an unclassified report. Williams also said the Lebanese SIPDIS government's refusal to request border security assistance from UNIFIL as mandated by UNSCR 1701 made it difficult for the UN to address arms trafficking at the border. However, he reported that UNIFIL intends in the near future to send a technical assessment team to the border to further assess the situation. But Williams commented that perhaps border security would be better addressed on an "ad hoc basis" via technical assistance from member states, such as Germany. -------------- Shebaa Farms -------------- ¶7. (S) Williams stressed the importance of Israeli flexibility in order to create the "appearance of movement" on the Shebaa farms issue to support Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora in his dealings with Hizballah. The international community should "call Hizballah's bluff" by removing this pretext for conflict. A/S Silverberg responded that real movement on the Shebaa issue is unlikely while Hizballah refuses to release the two abducted Israeli soldiers. Williams agreed, adding that Hizballah's detached attitude towards negotiations over the abducted soldiers made him question whether the soldiers were indeed still alive. -------------- UN Staff -------------- ¶8. (C) Williams noted that Iraq SRSG Ashraf Qarzi's contract expires in August 2007 and that he had served three years in an extremely demanding job. In regard to replacement candidates, Williams commented that, given the level of Shia-Sunni violence in Iraq, non-Muslim candidates may be preferable. Likewise, UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Alvaro de Soto's contract expires in May 2007. Williams said de Soto had engaged him several times in a debate about the Quartet principles and the UN's no contact policy with HAMAS. Williams added that de Soto's arguments stood little chance of persuading SYG Ban to reconsider the UN's HAMAS policy. ¶9. (U) A/S Silverberg cleared this message. WOLFF