OSCE: MADRID MINISTERIAL CROATIA BILAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USOSCE 000453 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/RPM, EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017 TAGS: ASEC HR CROATIA OSCE PREL SUBJECT: OSCE: MADRID MINISTERIAL CROATIA BILAT Classified By: Ambassador Julie Finley for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The November 29 bilateral meeting between U/S Burns and Croatian FM Grabar-Kitarovic (and with the participation of State Secretary Biscevic) focused on possible negative security implications for Croatia and the region due to developments in Kosovo and in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The meeting was extremely cordial, and both sides shared similar concerns. FM Grabar-Kitarovic stressed the importance of a U.S. role in ensuring Belgrade does not impose sanctions if Kosovo declares independence and in making sure Bosnia does not become a failed state. U/S Burns promised FM Grabar-Kitarovic a readout from A/S Fried's upcoming visit to Republika Srpska and meeting with RS PM Dodik. U/S Burns stressed the importance of Croatian membership in NATO and of ensuring Croatian public support for it. FM Grabar-Kitarovic thanked U/S Burns for U.S. support for the closure of the OSCE Mission in Croatia. End Summary. ¶2. Kicking off a discussion during a bilateral meeting on the margins of the OSCE Madrid Ministerial, U/S Burns told FM Grabar-Kitarovic that he had given Serbian FM Jeremic a strong message not to export Kosovo-related problems to Bosnia. FM Grabar-Kitarovic responded that Croatia is very concerned about developments in Bosnia; Serbia appears to be reenacting the past by claiming that a unilateral declaration of independence in Kosovo (UDI) would spill over into Bosnia. The real problem, however, is the policy coming from Belgrade - just as it was in 1991-2. There should be no link between what happens with Kosovo's status and Bosnia - or even Macedonia. U/S Burns laid out what the U.S. believes is the most likely scenario for Kosovo. There is no hope for the current talks, and the U.S. will not support continued negotiations. Kosovo will declare independence, which will be recognized by the U.S. and most of the EU, probably sometime in January. Serbia and Russia will be isolated, but the U.S. will not let Russia veto Kosovar independence. Russian arguments that a declaration of independence would violate UNSCR 1244 are wrong; UNSCR 1244 clearly indicates a status process with an eventual outcome. FM Grabar-Kitarovic responded that it is important to Croatia that as many EU countries as possible recognize Kosovo's independence. Moreover, Russia is using Kosovo and Bosnia as part of a larger power play. ¶3. (C) FM Grabar-Kitarovic said that Croatia must maintain good relations with Serbia, particularly because of developments in Bosnia. It would help if the U.S. would make clear to Serbia that economic sanctions following a Kosovo declaration of independence would be detrimental. Belgrade has threatened both economic and diplomatic sanctions, both of which would damage and destabilize the region. U/S Burns agreed with FM Grabar-Kitarovic's concerns about Bosnia. He told her that A/S Fried will go to Bosnia next week and will meet with RS PM Dodik to emphasize that it would be a mistake to link Kosovo to Bosnia. U/S Burns said that A/S Fried would either stop in Zagreb on the way back from Bosnia or call FM Grabar-Kitarovic with a readout of the meeting. FM Grabar-Kitarovic said she believes Dodik is slowly carrying out a process of integration with Serbia, which - if not stopped - will eventually become a fait accompli. Croatia's biggest security concern is a scenario in which Bosnia becomes a failed state and Croatia is in the EU and NATO. In this case, Croats from Bosnia likely will move into Croatia, and without Croats, both Bosnia and Serbia will be unstable. For this reason, it is crucial to secure the rights of Croats in Bosnia. She said that rhetoric and policies seem to be returning back to the war period, and this 1990s mindset only helps Serbs achieve their goals. Bosnia and Herzegovina must become a functioning state and Croats must be actively engaged in it. Pressure to work together must come from the outside; those inside Bosnia cannot do it by themselves. ¶4. (C) U/S Burns agreed that the U.S. and Croatia need to work together closely on Kosovo and Bosnia. It is crucial that Croatia get into NATO. FM Grabar-Kitarovic said Croatia and its new government will continue to work with Macedonia and Albania. Croatia will not/not hold a referendum on NATO membership. Over 50 percent of the country supports NATO membership and that number is rising due to the uncertainty in the region. U/S Burns stressed the importance of making sure there is strong public support for membership; that support will be crucial when the time comes for Croatia to deploy troops as part of a NATO operation. ¶5. (C) U/S Burns then turned to domestic issues that Croatia should address. There are still some issues remaining related to refugee return. Judicial reform and combating corruption should be priorities. Croatia needs to amend its law on property restitution; there are many Americans who want to reclaim property seized as far back as WWII. FM Grabar-Kitarovic responded that Croatia is aware of these problems and is working to resolve them. The Government has allocated sufficient funds in the 2008 budget to finish the remaining return cases, and all such cases will be completed by the end of 2009. Judicial reform is ongoing, and the Government will continue its zero-tolerance policy for corruption. The law on property restitution is in the process of being amended to give foreigners the same rights in this regard as Croatian citizens. ¶6. (C) The meeting ended with a brief exchange on the future of the OSCE Mission in Croatia. FM Grabar-Kitarovic thanked U/S Burns for U.S. support on closing the Mission. It is important to Croatia that any remnant of the Mission in 2008 work only on war crimes trial monitoring, and not on issues related to the Sarajevo Process. If the Sarajevo Process were to be included in a new mandate, it would send a wrong message to others that their actions to slow down the process are being rewarded. U/S Burns agreed, and added that the U/S looks forward to working with Croatia in its upcoming capacity of member of the UN Security Council. ¶7. (U) U/S Burns' office has cleared this cable. Participants: Croatia: Foreign Mininster Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic State Secretary Hijadet Biscevic Assistant Minister, Head of the Directorate for International Organizations and Security Pjer Simunovic Croatian Ambassador to the OSCE Vladimir Matek Head of the Office of the Foreign Minister, Ambassador Josko Klisovic United States: U/S Burns Ambassador Julie Finley Notetaker Janice Helwig FINLEY