OSCE: MADRID MINISTERIAL CROATIA BILAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USOSCE 000453

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/RPM, EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017
TAGS: ASEC HR CROATIA OSCE PREL
SUBJECT: OSCE: MADRID MINISTERIAL CROATIA BILAT

Classified By: Ambassador Julie Finley for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The November 29 bilateral meeting between
U/S Burns and Croatian FM Grabar-Kitarovic (and with the
participation of State Secretary Biscevic) focused on
possible negative security implications for Croatia and the
region due to developments in Kosovo and in Bosnia and
Herzegovina. The meeting was extremely cordial, and both
sides shared similar concerns. FM Grabar-Kitarovic stressed
the importance of a U.S. role in ensuring Belgrade does not
impose sanctions if Kosovo declares independence and in
making sure Bosnia does not become a failed state. U/S Burns
promised FM Grabar-Kitarovic a readout from A/S Fried's
upcoming visit to Republika Srpska and meeting with RS PM
Dodik. U/S Burns stressed the importance of Croatian
membership in NATO and of ensuring Croatian public support
for it. FM Grabar-Kitarovic thanked U/S Burns for U.S.
support for the closure of the OSCE Mission in Croatia. End
Summary.


2. Kicking off a discussion during a bilateral meeting on
the margins of the OSCE Madrid Ministerial, U/S Burns told FM
Grabar-Kitarovic that he had given Serbian FM Jeremic a
strong message not to export Kosovo-related problems to
Bosnia. FM Grabar-Kitarovic responded that Croatia is very
concerned about developments in Bosnia; Serbia appears to be
reenacting the past by claiming that a unilateral declaration
of independence in Kosovo (UDI) would spill over into Bosnia.
The real problem, however, is the policy coming from
Belgrade - just as it was in 1991-2. There should be no link
between what happens with Kosovo's status and Bosnia - or
even Macedonia. U/S Burns laid out what the U.S. believes is
the most likely scenario for Kosovo. There is no hope for
the current talks, and the U.S. will not support continued
negotiations. Kosovo will declare independence, which will
be recognized by the U.S. and most of the EU, probably
sometime in January. Serbia and Russia will be isolated, but
the U.S. will not let Russia veto Kosovar independence.
Russian arguments that a declaration of independence would
violate UNSCR 1244 are wrong; UNSCR 1244 clearly indicates a
status process with an eventual outcome. FM Grabar-Kitarovic
responded that it is important to Croatia that as many EU
countries as possible recognize Kosovo's independence.
Moreover, Russia is using Kosovo and Bosnia as part of a
larger power play.


3. (C) FM Grabar-Kitarovic said that Croatia must maintain
good relations with Serbia, particularly because of
developments in Bosnia. It would help if the U.S. would make
clear to Serbia that economic sanctions following a Kosovo
declaration of independence would be detrimental. Belgrade
has threatened both economic and diplomatic sanctions, both
of which would damage and destabilize the region. U/S Burns
agreed with FM Grabar-Kitarovic's concerns about Bosnia. He
told her that A/S Fried will go to Bosnia next week and will
meet with RS PM Dodik to emphasize that it would be a mistake
to link Kosovo to Bosnia. U/S Burns said that A/S Fried
would either stop in Zagreb on the way back from Bosnia or
call FM Grabar-Kitarovic with a readout of the meeting. FM
Grabar-Kitarovic said she believes Dodik is slowly carrying
out a process of integration with Serbia, which - if not
stopped - will eventually become a fait accompli. Croatia's
biggest security concern is a scenario in which Bosnia
becomes a failed state and Croatia is in the EU and NATO. In
this case, Croats from Bosnia likely will move into Croatia,
and without Croats, both Bosnia and Serbia will be unstable.
For this reason, it is crucial to secure the rights of Croats
in Bosnia. She said that rhetoric and policies seem to be
returning back to the war period, and this 1990s mindset only
helps Serbs achieve their goals. Bosnia and Herzegovina must
become a functioning state and Croats must be actively
engaged in it. Pressure to work together must come from the
outside; those inside Bosnia cannot do it by themselves.


4. (C) U/S Burns agreed that the U.S. and Croatia need to
work together closely on Kosovo and Bosnia. It is crucial
that Croatia get into NATO. FM Grabar-Kitarovic said Croatia
and its new government will continue to work with Macedonia
and Albania. Croatia will not/not hold a referendum on NATO
membership. Over 50 percent of the country supports NATO
membership and that number is rising due to the uncertainty
in the region. U/S Burns stressed the importance of making
sure there is strong public support for membership; that
support will be crucial when the time comes for Croatia to
deploy troops as part of a NATO operation.


5. (C) U/S Burns then turned to domestic issues that
Croatia should address. There are still some issues
remaining related to refugee return. Judicial reform and
combating corruption should be priorities. Croatia needs to
amend its law on property restitution; there are many
Americans who want to reclaim property seized as far back as
WWII. FM Grabar-Kitarovic responded that Croatia is aware of
these problems and is working to resolve them. The Government
has allocated sufficient funds in the 2008 budget to finish
the remaining return cases, and all such cases will be
completed by the end of 2009. Judicial reform is ongoing,
and the Government will continue its zero-tolerance policy
for corruption. The law on property restitution is in the
process of being amended to give foreigners the same rights
in this regard as Croatian citizens.


6. (C) The meeting ended with a brief exchange on the
future of the OSCE Mission in Croatia. FM Grabar-Kitarovic
thanked U/S Burns for U.S. support on closing the Mission.
It is important to Croatia that any remnant of the Mission in
2008 work only on war crimes trial monitoring, and not on
issues related to the Sarajevo Process. If the Sarajevo
Process were to be included in a new mandate, it would send a
wrong message to others that their actions to slow down the
process are being rewarded. U/S Burns agreed, and added that
the U/S looks forward to working with Croatia in its upcoming
capacity of member of the UN Security Council.


7. (U) U/S Burns' office has cleared this cable.

Participants:

Croatia:

Foreign Mininster Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic
State Secretary Hijadet Biscevic
Assistant Minister, Head of the Directorate for International
Organizations and Security Pjer Simunovic
Croatian Ambassador to the OSCE Vladimir Matek
Head of the Office of the Foreign Minister, Ambassador Josko
Klisovic

United States:

U/S Burns
Ambassador Julie Finley
Notetaker Janice Helwig
FINLEY