NATO/VCC NOVEMBER 14 AND 15 MEETINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USNATO 000613 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2017 TAGS: PREL PARM KCFE NATO RS OSCE SUBJECT: NATO/VCC NOVEMBER 14 AND 15 MEETINGS REF: A. A. STATE 155906 ¶B. B.AC/319-A(2007)0012 (CFE) ¶C. C.AC/319-A(2007)0011 ¶D. D.USNATO 0005254 Classified By: USNATO Deputy Chief of Mission Richard Olson for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The November 14 and 15 Verification Coordinating Committee (VCC) and VCC Experts made progress on several issues, but postponed others until the January VCC. Particular implementation concerns were discussed in regard to the potential Russian CFE suspension where HLTF policy guidance is needed. It was decided that if Russia carried through on its suspension, each NATO CFE-state would be entitled to at least one CFE inspection in the other CFE partner states, and if final policy guidance regarding CFE inspection requests were not received in time for the planned 19 December inspection coordination and deconfliction meeting, the process could and would be carried over into January. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) Vienna Document Evaluation and Inspection Plans: -- Germany will conduct a VDOC training Course for Turkmenistan in December, with a training inspection and a training evaluation in Switzerland 10-14 December. -- Lithuania will conduct a forthcoming VDOC evaluation in Sweden per bilateral arrangements. ¶3. (C) Coordination of VDOC Inspections: After the staff reported that the four invited non-NATO states had declined VDOC inspection coordination at this time, discussion turned to next steps and coordination within NATO: -- The NATO IS staff reported that the invited non-NATO states had indicated that the problem for them was political in being seen as too closely tied to NATO by a limited coordination process conducted at NATO. They intend to propose an agenda item of VDOC activity coordination for the Heads of Verification Units, meeting during the AIAM in Vienna. Sweden stated that it did not intend to conduct a VDOC inspection before March 15, but Switzerland will conduct one in January. -- NATO mostly coordinated and deconflicted VDOC evaluations for 2008. The U.S. received a VDOC evaluation in Croatia and a guest inspector slot on a Bulgarian evaluation in Bosnia. However, an impasse continued between four or five NATO states over the three evaluation opportunities in Russia. Since the deconfliction process is not finalized until all of it is, there could be changes depending upon how the states competing over evaluation opportunities in Russia resolve their problem. Finalization will take place on or before 19 December. -- Agreement was reached to internally coordinate and deconflict VDOC inspections within NATO. The staff will issue a paper asking for bids with deconfliction to take place on 19 December. ¶4. (C) CFE Inspections and Plans: -- Several nations, including the U.S., reported on recent CFE inspections and all inspection reports will be forwarded to Verity: -- The German supplementary inspection in Russia that was denied (see below) will be conducted at a time to be determined in 2008 (pending the suspension); -- Norway is moving two supplementary inspections from time block 33 to time block 53, but may not be able to conduct them per the decision (discussed below) on supplementary inspection policy, ¶5. (C) Paired Inspections: No nation volunteered to lead the paired inspection requested by Georgia. The Chair noted that this raised questions when NATO invited partners to pair but took so long to agree to implement such requests. The Chair also reported that Georgia was the only partner-state to request pairing, but now no longer wanted to pair this Treaty year, and noted that Georgia appeared to be only interested in pairing when the inspection costs would be paid by NATO. USNATO 00000613 002 OF 002 States were asked to consider for the January VCC whether they still wished to pursue pairing with partners under these circumstances. ¶6. (SBU) Problems Related to Flank Inspections. During discussion of the problems encountered by Germany in attempting to conduct supplementary inspections in Russia, as reported in Reference D, the position espoused by the U.S. (in Reference A) was agreed by experts and a paper was issued under two weeks silence for formal VCC approval. Norway did not object, but noted that agreeing that for every supplementary inspection there had to be a flank quota inspection previously conducted would mean that Norway would not be able to conduct its two planned supplementary inspections during the current Treaty year. In response to questions on how the proposed decision on this issue would affect CFE inspection coordination and deconfliction, the U.S. suggestion to simply add a new column for quota flank inspection bids to the matrix, and to ensure that there were ten bids there was accepted. ¶7. (U) Definition of the term "inspection site". The Romanian paper breaking silence on this issue was circulated for those who had not received it (including the U.S.). Preliminary discussion revealed several concerns about some of the Romanian proposed changes and it was decided to let nations study these proposals in capitals and report comments to the staff. ¶8. (U) Documenting Ambiguities. The paper, having been approved by all, will be forwarded to Vienna for action. ¶9. (SBU) Arms Control Training. During presentation of favorable reports on recent training courses, the Chair noted that Ukraine has offered to provide a lecturer for a NATO arms control course, and it was agreed by all that this would be a good thing. ¶10. (SBU) Follow-up Seminar in Central Asia. No state was willing to leads this effort, and only a very few to support. Nations were requested to decide whether we wish to continue these efforts for addressal at the January VCC. ¶11. (C) Discussion of CFE Implementation if Russia Suspends its Participation in the CFE Treaty. The Chair and several nations noted that policy guidance would be needed from the HLTF before implementation policies could be finalized. Led by Norway, several of the smaller nations (primarily those with only an active CFE inspection quota of two) expressed the need for guidance by the 19 December experts meeting to coordinate and deconflict CFE inspections for the next Treaty year. After much discussion it was agreed that this might not be forthcoming in time and the deconfliction process might have to be continued in January 2008. If Russia does suspend but policy guidance is to continue to carry out all CFE activities with the remaining participation states, or even with Russia to the extent that state allows, each NATO state will be entitled to at least one CFE inspection in the remaining non-NATO participating states (for the current Treaty year that was 31 inspection opportunities for the 22 NATO CFE-states.). If policy guidance is received before the 19 December planned deconfliction date, a short VCC meeting in the morning of 19 December may be scheduled to only formalize implementation procedures affecting inspection coordination. ¶12. (U) Under Any Other Business, the Chair noted that it would periodically issue to VCC points of contact lists of documents circulated (for the U.S., these lists will be provided to the U.S. Mission for transmission to Washington addressees). The next VCC meeting accompanied by a VCC experts meeting will be 22 January, 2008 (unless the brief VCC meeting mentioned above for 19 December needs to be scheduled). NULAND