U.S.-EU MEETINGS ON LATIN AMERICA

C O N F I D E N T I A L USEU BRUSSELS 001276 SIPDIS SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (TEXT) E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID EUN MX DR GT CO VZ NI BO ES HO, XM, XK SUBJECT: U.S.-EU MEETINGS ON LATIN AMERICA Classified By: Deputy Political Minister Counselor Alyce Tidball for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. US-EU Committee on Latin America (COLAT) troika consultations, held February 12 in Brussels, included discussion of Nicaragua, Venezuela, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, Brazil, Cuba and Central American gangs. The U.S. delegation consisted of WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro, USEU Deputy Political Minister Counselor Alyce Tidball, USAID Counselor Pat Lerner, and USEU Poloff Daphne Lyman. The EU side was led by German MFA Director for Latin America Enver Schrombgens, Commission Representatives Marie Anne Coninsx, Head of Unit DG Relex G1 and Petros Mavromichalis Head of Unite DG Relex G2; Council Representatives Karl Buck Head of Division for Latin America and Nicolas Pascual de la Parte Head of Task Force for UN and Latin America; and Portuguese MFA Director for Latin America Helena Coutinho. 2. (C) Participants generally agreed on situation assessments for most countries, with Cuba presenting the greatest divergence of EU and U.S. opinion. Discussions revealed a shared sense of growing concern towards developments in Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Bolivia, as well as an acknowledgment of progress in Mexico and Colombia. The EU's Latin America policy emphasizes the need to promote "social cohesion" through efforts to fight poverty, inequality and exclusion. Regarding Cuba, the Presidency is currently drafting a non-binding policy paper on EU medium and long-term strategies toward Cuba. (NOTE: Since the February 12 COLAT meeting the draft policy paper did not achieve consensus and the committee will go back to the Political and Security Committee (PSC) for new instructions. END NOTE.) The EU questioned the continuing usefulness of Helms-Burton, identifying it as the major difference in our policies toward Cuba. Shapiro encouraged the EU to be more active in promoting democratic changes in Cuba through greater civilian and economic engagement. END SUMMARY -------------- ¶2. (C) Nicaragua -------------- The Portuguese, leading the discussion on Nicaragua, first noted some positive democratic developments in the recent election of Daniel Ortega such as the opposition's recognition of Ortega's legitimate win, Ortega's promise to proceed with parliamentary reform, and his decision to remain in CAFTA for now. The Nicaraguans, they said, have high expectations of this government to address the huge challenges of improving social conditions and eradicating poverty. They noted that Ortega's initial statements seemed moderate, but that it is "too soon to see," and they will be monitoring his support in the National Assembly and the Liberal-Sandinista Pacto, with especial wariness of Chavez' influence. Coninsx, noted that Nicaragua receives one of the biggest assistance packages from the EU in Latin America, and that the new 2007-13 assistance program will focus on promoting good governance and democracy, education (both primary and secondary),and the investment climate (with attention to the macro-economic side). Mavromichalis, commented with skepticism on Ortega's stance on corruption, noting various relatives in high positions (including his brother and two sons),and also on the future of the Pacto and Aleman, noting that the U.S. and EU need to have a position on the situation as it could be difficult to require Aleman to stay in jail. PDAS Shapiro said that the U.S. generally concurs with this assessment. -------------- ¶3. (C) Venezuela -------------- Schrombgens led the discussion on Venezuela. He described with great concern the assessment of the direction in which Chavez is headed, which very strongly resembles the U.S. interpretation. He mentioned particular concern over Chavez' landslide victory and the opposition's unfortunate strategy of boycotting parliamentary elections, thus allowing Chavez to be granted extraordinary powers. He noted that Chavez' "21st Century Socialism" is very similar to that of the 20th Century (a specific observation the U.S. has also made). Schrombgens said that Chavez is continuing with his self-empowerment through nationalization of private companies (Schrombgens was skeptical about the promise of payment in full),reshuffling of the Cabinet, censorship (e.g. the refusal to renew the broadcasting license of RCTV),and his moves to create a single socialist party with participation of all Venezuelan citizens. Schrombgens also mentioned the EU's role in election observation as well as the Sumate trial. He stated that the common EU assessment is that "a step by step approach and quiet diplomacy are the only ways to be influential," noting that Chavez will probably be able to maintain this path as long as there is a demand for Venezuelan oil. ¶4. (C) PDAS Shapiro agreed with the EU assessment, noting that where Venezuela is now has been completely predictable as Chavez has done everything he said he would. He mentioned with concern that Chavez is continuing to gain control over supposedly independent institutions such as the Supreme Court and the Attorney General and is eliminating any checks and balances that may have existed in the Venezuelan government. He acknowledged that quiet diplomacy is good but "not always sufficient," and while praising the EU presence at the Sumate trial, encouraged the EU to be more proactive in working with political parties and institutions to promote opposition, especially as the U.S. currently has little influence (as evidenced by the stand-still of coordination on counter-narcotics and the lack of response from Chavez to U.S. initiatives to engage). Shapiro also noted some concerns not mentioned by the EU such as weapons purchases, the growing relationship with Iran, loss of control of identification documents, and an increase in potential narcotics trafficking activities. Coninsx from the Commission acknowledged awareness of and shared concern over these issues in the EU, saying that their response is discussions on social cohesion and regional integration, and maintaining cooperation with civil society to strengthen the opposition without polarization. She noted that EU assistance of about 40 million euros (approximately 52 million USD) over the next five years will focus on governance and diversification of exports. -------------- ¶5. (C) Colombia -------------- PDAS Shapiro, leading discussion on Colombia, praised the current direction of the GOC. He showed appreciation for EU and Member State support to date, and encouraged support for Colombia,s new "Strategy for Strengthening Democracy and Social Development," which will focus on reducing poverty, coordinating civilian and military efforts in newly secured areas, and pay special attention to minorities and human rights. He highlighted a shift in the balance of U.S. funding towards the soft side, noting that the main areas for assistance for post-paramilitary demobilization are prosecution, OAS monitoring, reparations, and reintegration programs. He also mentioned interest in the GOC-ELN talks, but noted that the ELN has some tough decisions to make; they should agree to a ceasefire and release their kidnapped prisoners. He noted that the President is visiting Colombia in March. He also mentioned that a U.S.-Colombia FTA is in Congress, noting that it will be a different discussion with the Democrats in the majority. He also noted with enthusiasm that Colombia grew by 6% last year, saying that economic progress will be the key to solving its problems. ¶6. (C) Karl Buck described the recent visits of FM Araujo and MOD Santos, who favorably impressed the Europeans. During these visits the EU learned that Colombia would like to pursue a South African model of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Buck sees reintegration of demobilized paramilitary members as the big issue, but also expressed concern for the rights of the victims and the problem of child soldiers. He also mentioned progress on the humanitarian exchange as three EU governments had been permitted to contact the FARC. He noted with pleasure that the EU welcomed the U.S. shift towards soft, funding. He observed that like Afghanistan, Colombia needed to create a stable situation to combat drugs, and also noted the need to inform surrounding nations of the risks of condoning or not resisting narcotics trafficking from Colombia. Aude Maio-Coliche, Commission DG Relex G3 Colombia Desk, mentioned that External Affairs Commissioner Ferrero Waldner is going to Colombia in the third week of April. She also stated that the EU provided assistance of Euros 270 million (approximately 351 million USD) to Colombia in 2001-06, and will program assistance for Euros 160 million (approximately 208 million USD) in 2007-13. This will focus mostly on supporting communities receiving ex-combatants, with another program directed at victims and protecting those who defend them. She also mentioned that the EU had been actively participating in the G-24 working group on Colombia. Schrombgens asked Shapiro for his thoughts on the scandals regarding ties between politicians and paramilitaries, and Shapiro responded that it was to be expected that the paramilitaries would make such accusations, and that some of them may well be true, but regardless it is important for the truth and reconciliation process to continue. -------------- ¶7. (C) Bolivia -------------- Regarding Bolivia, Schrombgens noted that the hope placed in Morales as the first president elected by a majority in Bolivia was fading as he has failed to use his legitimacy to bridge the gaps in society and incorporate indigenous law. Schrombgens said there was great concern in the EU about Morales' close ties with Venezuela and Cuba, the deterioration of the democratic constitution, the prospect of legalizing coca cultivation, and the increasing violence. Nicolas Pascual de la Parte mentioned the visit of opposition leader Governor of Cochabamba Manfred Reyes Villa with HR Solana, noting that he seemed to be delivering a "catastrophic scenario" of a secession movement in the east, and also criticized Morales for adopting the pretension of being able to start Bolivia over from scratch. ¶8. (C) PDAS Shapiro agreed with the general concerns, noting that both sides of the internal Bolivian conflict were employing confrontational tactics that were exacerbating ethnic tensions. He applauded the Presidency,s statement in January on the violence in Cochabamba. He noted that the U.S. still engages with Morales, mentioning trade negotiations, and saying that we believe diverse international engagement with the GOB will make them be more pragmatic, stressing the importance of respecting the rights of the legal opposition and strengthening democratic institutions for ALL Bolivians, which would have to incorporate the indigenous majority. He also applauded the EU,s increased engagement on the cocaine issue, noting that most of the drugs resulting from increased coca production in Bolivia would probably end up in the EU. Commission representative Coninsx described the EU,s economic aid contribution, noting that the EU and Member States account for 77 percent of all aid to Bolivia, with the EC focus on economic opportunities, the fight against drugs, and integrated water management. She then asked about the certification procedure in March, strongly expressing hope that the U.S. will continue to engage with the GOB. Shapiro responded that there was fierce internal debate over the issue, with political concerns against counter-narcotics concerns, noting that he did not know how it would turn out. He mentioned that the reduction of funding for U.S. counter-narcotics activities reflected a re-prioritization of assistance efforts which was accompanied by an increase in other areas, although the overall budget had decreased. -------------- ¶9. (C) Mexico -------------- PDAS Shapiro led discussion on Mexico, expressing pleasure with the initial months of Caldron's presidency. Coninsx noted that the EU has strong relations with Mexico and considers it a rich to middle-income country with regional disparities. The EU's modest 2007-13 assistance package will focus on social cohesion as the main concerns now are inequality and the rise of violence, as well as lessons learned from EU regional policy. She asked about the U.S. stance on crime and immigration, two key issues. Shapiro responded that the U.S. is trying to increase cooperation with the GOM on northern border security. He also noted that immigration is an essential part of the relationship (as evidenced by the fierce public debate currently occurring) because of the wage differential and the need for workers in the U.S, mentioning the three approaches proposed by the Administration focusing on border control, employer sanctions, and temporary worker visas to match workers with jobs. He also noted that we are encouraging Mexico's efforts to take a leadership role in Central and indeed all of Latin America, for example with th Plan Puebla-Panama to reduce energy costs in Central America through homogenization of standards, building an oil pipeline from Mexico, and connecting the electrical grids. Coninsx agreed that energy will be a key theme in the future of EU relations with Mexico and all of Latin America. Pascual de la Parte then discussed Calderon's visit to Europe, saying that the emphasis was on the need for foreign investment, and ensuring political stability and a legal framework to foster such investment. He believes that the recent reduction in oil revenues could give Calderon the opportunity he needs to reform the fiscal system, and even open the door for the foreign investment in energy currently not allowed in Mexico. He also mentioned that Solana will be visiting Mexico on 17 April, on his way to the Rio-EU summit meeting in Santo Domingo (18-20 April). -------------- ¶10. (C) Brazil -------------- Leading the discussion on Brazil, PDAS Shapiro noted that the U.S. cooperates with Brazil on energy, health, environment, science and technology, and biofuels, and that we have good working level relationships in the areas of law enforcement and counter-narcotics. The major concerns are inequality, drugs and terrorist financing. He mentioned the need to encourage Brazil to take advantage of its potential leadership position by encouraging Lula as a leader of the modern, forward-looking left to exert more influence on his neighbors, and conveying to the Brazilians that they have much to lose by political instability and increased drug trafficking in Bolivia. Regarding biofuels, Shapiro noted that the U.S. and Brazil account for 80% of the world's ethanol production, and said a market-driven approach is needed for expansion, targeting poor economies with production potential. To that end, ethanol should be turned into a commodity, and infrastructure improved to encourage private sector development. He noted that Brazil could become an economic superpower if it could break the 3-3.5% growth barrier. ¶11. (C)Beatrix Martins, DG Relex G4 Deputy Head of Uni for the Brazil Desk, said the EU is helping Brazil attack its problem of regional differences by assisting, through dialogue and an exchange of best practices, in development of a Regional Planning Policy similar to that of the EU. The EC is in the process of organizing an international biofuels conference, which Brazilian President Lula will attend, in Brussels in early July. The conference will focus on market problems, sustainable development, environmental impact, and research progress. The EU is currently negotiating an FTA with Mercosur, but not making much progress due to focus on Doha, Venezuela's membership, Bolivian uncertainty, internal rows, and a lack of action to address huge structural asymmetries within the group. This brought the discussion back to Brazil's leadership role, as they are 70% of Mercosur, with strong reiteration by the EU of the need to encourage Brazil to "believe in themselves" and assume the responsibilities of their new leadership position. -------------- ¶12. (C) Gangs -------------- PDAS Shapiro led off the discussion by noting the connection between Central American and U.S. gangs because of the flow of people. Pascual de la Parte noted that Madrid is now experiencing a similar problem. Shapiro said the U.S. is working through OAS and SICA on anti-gang and prevention strategies regionally, nationally, in the private sector, and in immigrant communities abroad, mentioning the upcoming international anti-gang conference in El Salvador during the week of April 25, 2007, and stressing as a prevention method assisting community based alternatives to gang related activities. Pascual de la Parte mentioned that Spain has recently enacted a program to grant "gangs" cultural association status with government funding, which has allowed the groups to feel integrated and respected, and seems to be keeping them under control. The problem of deportees was specifically discussed, as the receiving governments in Latin America and especially the Caribbean complain they cannot deal with the number of people coming in, citing as a reason the lack of information. Shapiro noted that the information is sent from the U.S., but could have the potential to be buried in the transfer, provoking the suggestion that the records be sent with the persons to whom they refer and a general agreement on the need to have a greater sharing of information. This also generated a discussion on the need for reintegration programs, potentially similar to those used with the Balkan refugees, which essentially stated the need to "send them back with something useful in their luggage" and focused on training done at a community level. There was also a general acknowledgment of the need for greater cooperation on this issue; Coninsx requested information on U.S. programs on reintegration. -------------- ¶13. (C) Cuba -------------- PDAS Shapiro started discussion on Cuba, saying we all want the same goal: a transition to a democratic society and not the establishment of a dynasty by transferring power from a dictator to his brother. He said it is clear Fidel Castro is not coming back, and the current slow-motion scenario now makes it more important for us (the U.S. and the EU) to send the message that we expect change. He expressed U.S. interest in the EU's new policy paper on Cuba, wondering specifically about strategy and political support. Karl Buck responded that there are not many details from the policy paper available as it has not been discussed internally. He said the EU is assuming a stable situation in Cuba, noting that collective control is in place, there is no opposition, and strong nationalism; but he also mentioned that there is no common line in the EU as each Member State refers to its individual experiences. He also noted a perceived change in the U.S. itself, citing Administration policies, the Democratic Congress, and the lack of a charismatic leader of the U.S.-Cuban population. He stated that Cuba is not isolated, as demonstrated by its position in the UN Human Rights Council, strong support from UNGA, and economic support from Venezuela, China and tourism. All of these observations, Buck said, make Helms-Burton seem "silly" to the EU, and he asked if it is still useful. Buck averred that Helms-Burton has not been successful, it does not really affect Cuba anymore, outsiders are the real victims, and it could have a titling effect on the leadership. Shapiro countered by saying that Helms-Burton is a law, not a policy, and could allow for more lenient treatment of Cuba if there are demonstrable steps towards democracy. Buck also noted that Raul Castro shows great capacity to discuss. Ultimately he thinks the EU's role in transition will be small and aimed at supporting peace, especially in light of the large numbers of European tourists in Cuba. ¶14. (C) Karl-Otto Konig, Head of Unit for Mexico, Central America, SICA, Caribbean, CARICOM, Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Berlin, also representing the Presidency, stated that the EU's new policy paper will be based on the Common Position of 1996, but will be a non-binding framework drawn from a consensus. It would be a set of recommendations on how to engage with Cuba in the medium to long term, setting out a strategy to encourage a transition to democracy. (NOTE. We have since been informed that the policy paper stalled due to lack of consensus in the Latin America Committee and was returned to the Political and Security Committee (PSC),which called for the development of the strategy paper, for new instructions. The PSC instructed the Committee to focus on renewal of the Common Position in June, since agreement on a strategy paper is not possible. END NOTE.) ¶15. (C) Javier Nino Perez DG Relex G1 Policy Officer from the Commission, raised questions on how to more actively engage the rest of Latin America and how Cuba will position itself regionally. Shapiro responded that Latin America is reluctant to engage. He said that Latin Americans don't like to criticize each other, especially as Cuba pushes back. Castro is also untouchable as "the number one anti-American," and communist parties throughout Latin America have lived off of him for 40 years. He also mentioned that post-transition there could be a myriad of other problems we may not have even thought about, such as drugs and social services, and the burden of dealing with these problems will fall disproportionately on the U.S. He further noted that while the Europeans are saying the embargo is a failure, European engagement with the Castro government has not brought any positive results. Pascual de la Parte agreed that neither strategy has worked, noting there are some considerable hurdles to jump over: there is no precedent, there is a need to be wary of a nationalist reaction, we cannot expect help from the rest of Latin America, our impact is limited with a loss of economic influence and political isolationism, and we cannot count on the opposition as they are small, disorganized and surely infiltrated. We therefore have to be patient and "wait for the situation to be ready" before we join in not at the front, but on the side, and with complementary strategies. Pascual de la Parte then said we also have to trust each other and exchange information, to which Shapiro responded that the U.S. is interested in sharing information and views and that some Europeans have better access to sectors of Cuban society. He also said that the Cuban people deserve to have same right as any other nations to decide their own future. ¶16. (C) Buck suggested flooding Cuba with money and contacts to invoke rapid change, but Shapiro noted that the UK, Canada, Mexico, Spain, etc. have been doing that with no results. Pascual de la Parte said that the Cubans want a better standard of living, but have been misinformed and manipulated to believe they can achieve this under the current regime. He also noted the need to reassure the Cuban public that change is not dangerous, as well to sharpen and play on the extreme contradictions of the regime, such as human rights issues. There was general agreement with this statement, and Shapiro pushed suggestions for EU action, including opening information centers with access to the internet and newspapers, distributing literature, recognizing legitimate opposition, encouraging the media through venues such as Reporters Without Borders, calling publicly and privately for democratic steps such as the release of political prisoners, encouraging European businesses in Cuba to abide by ILO regulations, and encourage the ILO to meet with labor leaders. These were duly noted by the Europeans. 17, (C) After the Troika consultations, Shapiro held a bilateral meeting with the PSC Ambassador of Portugal and then informal drinks with Latin American Ambassadors to the European Union from Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, and Peru. The Portuguese hoped to improve relations with Latin America during their presidency, noting the large Portuguese populations in those countries as well as strong bilateral relations with Brazil. To this end they want to strengthen the EU's bilateral relations with Brazil, which will focus on energy and trade relations with Mercosur, with whom the EU is currently negotiating an FTA, and are organizing an energy summit in July. The Latin American Ambassadors demonstrated a general frustration with the lack of involvement from the EU. PDAS Shapiro cleared this cable. Gray .