IAEA DG SUCCESSION: THE RACE IS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L UNVIE VIENNA 000739 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR IO, IO/T, ISN/MNSA, ISN/NESS, ISN/RA THE HAGUE FOR CWC DEL, AMBASSADOR JAVITS DOE FOR NA-24 SHEINMAN, MENDELSOHN, DALTON, GOODMAN, SIEMON/O'CONNOR NE FOR MCGINNIS, PEKO, LISANN, SYZMANSKI NA020 FOR CONNERY NRC FOR OIP- DOANE, HENDERSON, SCHWARTZMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2017 TAGS: IAEA KNPP AORC SUBJECT: IAEA DG SUCCESSION: THE RACE IS ON REF: UNVIE 658 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for Reasons 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) Summary: With the growing assumption that ElBaradei has no intention of pursuing a fourth term as IAEA DG, speculation is accelerating here about possible successors. Egyptian Ambassador Fawzi, for instance, said, "everybody is talking about (Japanese Ambassador) Amano" as a DG candidate. He hinted at a Japan/Egypt swap of the heads of IAEA and UNESCO. He also mentioned South African governor Minty and OPCW DG Pfirter as candidates. A key Australian in Vienna raised the possible candidacy of Garth Evans. We like Pfirter (reftel). If he is to be taken seriously, he needs to get his hat in the ring quickly, and we would suggest an instruction along these lines. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Egyptian Ambassador Fawzi unexpectedly raised with Ambassador Schulte December 4 the candidature of Japanese Ambassador Amano for IAEA Director General, and probed U.S. views on potential candidates. According to Fawzi, "everyone is talking about Amano." In his experience, the Japanese were prepared to commit political resources to a candidate, making it difficult for anyone else. He reported that Amano had already spoken to DG ElBaradei about his candidacy. Fawzi also said that Egypt would put forward its Minister of Culture for the UNESCO SYG position, currently held by a Japanese national, which would be vacated around the time ElBaradei left the IAEA. However, any "swap" between Egypt and Japan would be purely coincidental, he claimed. ¶3. (C) Unsolicited, Fawzi also asked about South African Governor Abdul Minty and OPCW DG Rogelio Pfirter as potential candidates for IAEA DG, the latter of whom he viewed as competent and well-respected. Ambassador Schulte was non-committal on any DG candidates, noting that it was early in the selection process and Washington has yet to take a view. ¶4. (C) In a separate discussion with DCM December 4, Special Assistant to the DG Geoff Shaw, who returns to the Australian MFA disarmament division this month, raised the prospect that the new government in Canberra would put forward former Australian FM Gareth Evans for DG. During the September IAEA General Conference, Evans had served as head of the Scientific Forum, politicizing this expert forum and directly challenging the U.S. on disarmament. At the time, some thought that ElBaradei put Evans in this role since the DG sees Evans as a potential successor. Shaw (protect) argued that Evans had built a distinguished and independent record during his time at the International Crisis Group, and would be able to fill the higher profile that ElBaradei had established for the DG position. ¶5. (C) Comment: The race for DG is already heating up. Missions here are taking ElBaradei's departure as a given, and the Japanese are preparing a blitz in support of Amano. We still think that Pfirter is the best choice, but if he is to emerge as a serious contender, he must have his government's backing as soon as possible. Public U.S. support for Pfirter (or any other candidate) would be counterproductive, but Buenos Aires should act quickly, or Pfirter's candidacy would be foreclosed by Japan's active lobbying campaign. Gareth Evans is a new idea, and we would be interested in Embassy Canberra's assessment. We are frankly concerned that he is too political and disarmament- oriented to be head of a technical agency. Separately, we would encourage the Department to consider an instruction to key capitals detailing our views on this succession issue. SCHULTE